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Hansong Li: China, Tangut, political economy, history | Podcast

June 14, 2024 Ben Yeoh

A podcast with Hansong Li, a political theorist and historian of political, economic, and legal thought. We discussed a breadth of topics ranging from the Tangut language, Eastern philosophy, development economics, to modern political ideologies and cultural expressions. Hansong’s insights shed light on historical contexts while drawing connections to contemporary issues.

The conversation delves into broader philosophical and economic themes, comparing past and present political thoughts and examining the effects of international aid on development. Hansong emphasizes the importance of learning from history and cultural interactions for a more nuanced understanding of contemporary global dynamics.

Transcript, contents and summary below.

  • 00:18 The Tangut People and Their Language

  • 11:16 Modern Interpretations of Chinese Philosophy

  • 22:07 Global South and Regional Concepts

  • 27:09 Montesquieu and Sea Imagery

  • 32:55 Rousseau's Plan for Corsica

  • 37:56 Economic Development in Northeast Asia

  • 40:34 International Aid: Help or Hindrance?

  • 46:56 Global Economic Thought: East vs. West

  • 56:29 Hamilton: A Political and Cultural Analysis

  • 01:01:51 Underrated or Overrated?

  • 01:06:04 Current Projects and Life Advice


The Tangut Legacy: A Journey Through Language and History

Our dialogue began with an exploration of the Tangut people and their language. Hansong provided a richly detailed account, explaining that the Tangut were referred to by the Mongolians, while the Chinese knew them as the Western Xia. Significantly positioned along the Silk Road, the Tangut introduced their own script, imitating Chinese characters but retaining a Tibetan-influenced grammar and syntax. 

"Learning the Tangut language is fun," Hansong remarked, pointing out its synthetic nature, blending elements from Sanskrit, Chinese, and Tibetan. He also emphasized the diverse cultural fabric of the Tangut, mentioning Tibetans, Uyghurs, and Han Chinese influences, and how insights into their daily lives reveal much about medieval Northwestern China.

In discussing the Tangut’s military prowess and strategic diplomacy, Hansong noted their frequent military victories over the Song Dynasty. He highlighted how Genghis Khan's frustrations with the Tangut contributed to his deteriorating health.

When questioned about the regulatory landscape for something as mundane yet fundamental as opening a bakery in that era, Hansong illuminated the extensive yet fascinating legal codes and contractual details. This granularity highlighted the historical depth and richness often obscured in conventional narratives.

Modern China: Misunderstandings and Moral Vacuums

Transitioning to contemporary topics, Hansong challenged the notion of a moral or spiritual vacuum in modern China. He argued that, despite China's complex relationship with its traditions post-1950s and post-1989, a rich tapestry of normative traditions persists, driven by intellectuals and everyday people alike.

"There is a world full of normative traditions, contentions, and intercultural contestations in China," Hansong asserted, adding that today's intellectual landscape thrives on the interplay of Marxist, Confucian, and other philosophical streams.

Economic Thought and Development: Lessons from Rousseau and Modern Implications

Hansong's reflections on Jean-Jacques Rousseau’s plan for Corsica drew fascinating parallels with contemporary development economics. He praised Rousseau's stage-by-stage approach to building economic surplus, emphasizing its relevance to modern East Asian economic models where initial industrial policy laid the groundwork for technological and innovative leaps.

This led to a critical discussion on international aid. Hansong acknowledged its varied impact, cautioning against viewing aid as a one-size-fits-all solution. He stressed the importance of domestic capability in creating surplus and self-reliance, advocating a balanced approach akin to China’s industrial policy.

Western Economic Philosophies: Evolution and Reflection

Discussing Western economic thought, Hansong spoke about the ongoing evolution from 1970s neoliberalism to today’s reflective and sometimes critical stance. He emphasized the significance of considering both distribution and production in economic models, rejecting binary views in favor of nuanced, context-specific strategies.

Cultural Reflections: Musical Theater and Classical Music

We concluded on a lighter note, reflecting on cultural phenomena like the musical "Hamilton." Hansong critiqued its oversimplified portrayal of social mobility and individual heroism, while acknowledging its power to communicate complex narratives. He pondered the power of performative arts in shaping social and political discourse across cultures.

Travel and Inter-Normative Thinking: Life Advice

"Traveling a lot and being open-minded to different ways of life is essential for any public intellectual," he emphasized.

Transcript (AI derived, mistakes are possible)


Ben: Hey everyone, I'm super excited to be speaking to Hansong Li. Hansong is a political theorist and a historian of political, economic, and legal thought. Hansong, welcome. 

Hansong: Thank you so much, Ben. So glad to be here. 

Ben: What can we learn? from the Tangut language and people? 

Hansong: The wonderful question to start us off to start, of course, the Tangut and the word Tangut is the actually was a Mongolian reference to the people whom the Chinese call Western Xia.

And they occupy to the [ ] corridor so somewhere between modern day, [Gangsu and monglia] there were people who basically occupy this very strategic place in what we today would call the Silk Road as we reimagine it. And at the time of course, it creates some troubles for the Song Dynasty because they really blocked the pathway to Central Asia and to Eastern Europe.

We can learn a few things from the Tangut groups. First of all, the way they created their own script in imitation of Chinese characters, but also preserving that [ ] somewhat, it was rather close to Tibetan in, in grammar and syntax, but with a lot of loan words from across the board from Sanskrit, from Chinese.

So it's a very synthetic language, and it's just so much fun to learn. I started learning it when I was 13 or 14 reading martial arts novels, which involved some characters from the re imagined Tangut dynasty, but and then I wondered, I really wanted to know how they spoke and what they really thought and what kind of buddhism did they have and how did they treat people of different cultures, religions and ethnicities, because it was not just a regional kingdom, but there were [ ] medieval Uyghurs the [Hui] people who were conquered and incorporated in there. There were Tibetans, there were more Central Asian peoples.

There were obviously also a lot of Han Chinese influence. And it was a very diverse. And incredibly rich source of historical imaginations. And we can also look into the daily lives at the micro historical level, the way they contracted loans and investments. And my favorite piece of artifact was really just a piece of paper saying all the things you need to start a bakery shop and all the utensils you need and how much it cost it. And of course, you have to rent the room to open that bakery shop. So all the details you need to know about ideas, we would call it high medieval, late medieval Northwestern China.

And their interactions, their diplomacy, their economic life, their total activities it was just a kind of black box because it's not officially classified as 1 of the 24 histories and dynasties of Chinese history for complicated reasons. But this mysterious dynasty really has a lot to offer once you open up this black box and you see all the treasures inside. 

Ben: I mean arguably it was on a par with the Song dynasty. Is that correct? ... the 1100s to 1300s 

Hansong: Exactly and it overlapped with both the northern southern Song dynasty. So it started in the really in the heydays of northern Song dynasty So [they] able to battle off both the Khitans and and Han chinese And then later on, the Khitans were replaced by the Jurchens and the, the Song Dynasty, the Imperial Dynasty, then retreated to the South, but it continued to exist until the Mongol conquest.

And obviously the Mongols had a lot of troubles conquering the Tang groups. And it's rumored, several sources, including some Mongol sources, that Genghis Khan really was infuriated at the slow pace that Which they were [attacking Tangut] territory. The Tangut was really good fighters in terms of military power, not in terms of economic power.

They were probably much superior to the Songs. There were more victories on the Tangut side than on the Song side throughout the North and Song dynasties. [it is said on Ghengis Khan... that] The frustrations he had with his Tangut campaigns might have contributed to [his] the worsening of his own health situations and might have even contributed to his death. And, but of course we can't really verify that. 

Ben: And were there many bakery regulations? Is it like today where you needed lots of licenses and tax inspectors, or was it relatively simple still to open up a bakery? 

Hansong: It involved, of course, the regulatory regimes and and the legal code was extensive.

The Tanguts ... learned from both the Tibetan and [ ] their Chinese sponsors, patrons, peers at the time, and they also compiled they learned both from the [Tang] and the [Song] codes. And to open up a bakery shop, of course, you have to have a certificate. You have to have the permission to do that.

But then the taxes, right? All the the loans, the pawning and the transactions the land. Ownership and all of that have to be sorted to legally and we do have these legal codes, both the code itself and how it actually applied because we have the contracts and the laws and you can compare if in practice, they were really enforcing what the law says.

It's incredibly fascinating that you can do a lot with these materials. Then sometimes you can do with the seemingly richer Chinese sources at the time. 

Ben: And was it predominantly a steamed bread or a baked bread? And I was bread more popular than noodles, or I'm assuming rice at the time.

Hansong: Yeah. Northwestern Chinese. [The Tangut] took over basically the agricultural zone of the yellow river[ region quickly but] they never gave up on nomadic ways of life. They kept herding hunting and other activities, but they also took over the local agriculture of Northwestern China.

And so these are rough. pies with, I I don't think there was a lot of filling in there. But then there is also this question of the evolution of things like. Momo for example, in this Northwestern Chinese dialect, it really just nowadays, it meant just a bun without any filling in there.

But and then what the Chinese would call baozi and jiaozi nowadays are closer to samosa and momo and manti. But all of these words, of course, come from Tibetanized Chinese. Or other like Turkified Chinese. And so all of the new, so you can basically, like an average Chinese tourist would go into these Central Asian or Eastern European restaurants and order by speaking Mandarin.

Ben: What would have been the greatest cultural artifacts of the region in the time? 

Hansong: In the territories, it would be, architecturally, these magnificent pagodas and the imperial mausoleums actually, it's been the government of Ningxia has been petitioning for a UNESCO status for the Tangut Mausoleum, and I was involved in translating some of the documents that was also very tricky, right?

If you want to call it the tombs or mausoleums, and if it's like classifying it as a kingdom or an empire, it also has geopolitical implications hence also political sensitivities. And these are architectural wonders. On the other hand, you also have Buddhist sutras and also block prints, because the Tanguts were very advanced in book printing.

Towards the end, because of a lot of fiscal disasters and also because of the high expenditures on military campaigns it suffered a dearth of resources. So at the time they were using a recycling papers a lot. So in, in towards the end of the Tangut Imperial history, you will see that all the sutra pages were recycled and you would write your personal like diaries or practice your calligraphy or even write out your contracts On the flip side of maybe a sutra or some kind of textbook so it becomes messier at the time. It's a combination I guess to answer your question. It's a combination of textual artifacts and then there are a lot of These Buddhist artifacts these boxes where you will put in a tooth or it's or there, there will be like larger architectural artifacts.

So we, we have a lot of these and also inscriptions and steels and other things spread out across mostly Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Ningxia. 

Ben: And what would have been the dominant philosophical thought of the time?

So there was obviously Buddhist influence, a kind of Tibetan Buddhist influence.

You also had the nomadic people. There was, a spirit influence. And I guess there's a little bit of a, one of those medieval diverse melting pots we would, might say today, but I was interested about that philosophical thought either I guess a little bit is economic military philosophy, but also the kind of [ ] spiritual, how should they live their life?

Hansong: Absolutely, it's also fascinating if I could time travel, I would definitely try to reconstruct a kind of cosmology of the 10 groups, but I also, I guess it would have been a melting pot and even just officially the 10 groups had bureaus, they had bureau, Creative structures, which regulated Buddhism, Taoism and Confucianism.

So you have the Confucian academy system. You have a regulatory regimes overseeing the conduct of the Taoist monist. Of course, part of it is also to make sure the religious sectors don't get subversive and they're well regulated. So there's that kind of state to view it through the eyes of the state.

There is that regulatory intention there, but also it says a lot about the prosperity of Buddhism and even Taoism, Confucianism. And of course, at the imperial level, there were all ways. These more like pro harm confusion. Sectors, and there are these more Buddhist state sectors, and there are the more kind of authentic, if not indigenous 10 good intuitions about, we should be more nomadic and less sinicized.

And so there's always this contention from within the Imperial household. Sometimes the the clan, the maternal clans of the Empress would be a little bit more pro Tengu, pro like more indigenously minded and sometimes the male clans would be a little bit more pro Confucian. And then on top of that, of course, you have military treatises, which are also very philosophical.

You have. receptions of all kinds of thinking from the Central Plains, from Tibet, from, India directly, indirectly through Tibet. And so you have this kind of synthetic cosmology in which different sources of normative and philosophical religious thinking would come together. And usually the Tengu are very versatile in synthesizing them and they print all kinds of texts in all across traditions.

And they're quite proud of that. 

Ben: That's a good segue into thinking perhaps around today's thinking, tracing it through a sort of history of economic thought or philosophical thought. What do you think is maybe misunderstood about China today? Or perhaps another way of thinking about it is, it seems to me that an understanding of Chinese philosophy or, different parts of it still seems to be an underrated way or lens [of thinking about China].

You've already mentioned a few the Tao or Confucianism and obviously you've got that through to thinking about modern China today. What do you think are the important to understand about how China's come about and it's thinking tracing it through the history to where we get today?

Hansong: Yes, absolutely. I think there are several intuitive assessments of the situation in China that I think needs to be more qualified or enriched or expanded. And the first is that there is some kind of moral vacuum, a spiritual vacuum if not post 1950s. ... at least post 1989. So this thesis about moral vacuum or spiritual vacuum could either come from neo left reactions to China's integration into global neoliberalism is a kind of discontent with the fact.

And now we only care about the market and no longer about the morals. So that would be one critique. And the other critique is, Oh, you've got, you've lost all of your Confucianism since the 1950s. This obviously is an oversimplification because since I would say since early modern China, at least not since the Jesuits came in, there was this kind of a first and the Jesuit pivot to the Buddhists.

And then they gave up on the Buddhists. And decided to align with the confusions against the Buddhist and talking about the material moment. And and then after that you still have this continued legacy of inter cosmic or inter epistemic contention, which exploded of course, in the aftermath of the Western.

Interventions in China since the open war. And this and then with the the reception of Marxism, you have traditional, and it must be emphasized this, a very heterogeneous traditional world of Chinese philosophies, which shouldn't be too Confucian centric about it the Confucian, Buddhistic other Traditions of thinking heartening back, of course, to the late spring, autumn, early warning states periods.

This entire internal world of contention descent then interacted with, of course, the Marxists and the liberals. And you literally see the receptions being parallel and also crisscrossing overlapping with each other. And we're very much in the aftermath of that kind of molten. Multiplex reception and today, of course, you still have intellectuals adhering to or mixing and matching these very different traditions.

And it's really not the case that you have a vacuum. If anything, you have a world full of normative traditions. Contentions and inter normative, international, intercultural, inter religious contentions. And I think that's a very healthy thing. So I don't think there is a moral vacuum. And I think it's actually a, an exciting moment to look at the ways the Chinese not just intellectuals, academics, but also the ways that people on the middle or bottom level.

Understand and different sources of normative. Imaginations, right? So that is one big thought that I think it's there, there's a lot in there. And secondly there is a kind of post colonial reading of China, or a And also it's not appropriate to say indigenous, but it's kind of NeoCon confusion or neo post-colonial reading of China, as you know now that China's reacting against the whole, the entire legacy of post imperial, then post-colonial, and then post-war liberal international order.

And it's responding to that, reacting against that with his own tradition. But then here are my responses again that the Chinese tradition must be unpacked and and deconstructed. And it's not just about Confucianism. It's a lot of things in there. And to what extent China's opposed colonial has a.

Post colonial mentality, it's certainly strategically and geopolitically identifies with the post colonial moment, but it's also a very special case. So I think the best way to approach the thinking world, the thought world of China today is to look at, first of all, the genealogy of these ideas and how they contest each other in the long duration, not just in the past 10 or 20 years after reform and opening up.

But throughout the 20th century, going back to the late imperial moment but also to be open minded about the many ways that different sectors of the Chinese public sphere part choose to participate in these different kinds of problem consciousnesses. 

Ben: So that's a rejection of both. The simplistic view that you could understand China today just as a post colonial thinking, or also a rejection of just thinking about China entering a free market, neoliberal type of thinking, either way seem too simplistic.

And the best way of thinking about it is still a pluralistic melting pot of many traditions which have been there for hundreds to thousands of years To, to where we are today. So perhaps thinking today and crystal ball into the future, how do you think this might pan out? And maybe we could maybe make it a little bit simpler because you already pointed to the fact that different parts of Chinese society think differently, and you can think about this almost urban countryside, elite, non elite.

Technocrats merchants versus bureaucrats. So it there's no one answer either because it's a pluralistic kind of view of the world. But I guess with the dominant thought on the government side, or perhaps trading merchant side, where do you think it might be going? Is any one of those threads of thought potentially becoming more dominant or some intersection of that where you think this is maybe a little bit misunderstood and seem to be a more dominant piece of thinking which might last for now and into the immediate future.

Hansong: I see the continued relevance and prevalence of this idea that we we're bear, we're torch bearers of this particular socio political economic tradition that Situates us somewhere in as a kind of dual track policy thinking mode and in between big bang neoliberalism and old fashioned collectivism.

So I think that kind of middle ground, the post 1980s, 1990s. Eastern European moment when, of course, China sent economists to the Eastern Europe to discuss what to, what should be done or what is the old Leninist question what is to be done now that we share the kind of global East mindset, we don't want to go back to this basically empirically.

Ineffective mode of collectivist economic production, very imbalanced, very unhealthy, does not even deliver on social welfare that we pride so much we pride our system so much on and but on the other hand. Not only the symptoms of, the old Martian language, the inner contradictions, but not so much.

The, just the state of crisis in a blind and unreflective kind of neoliberalism. So I think it's now become a kind of implicit tacit doctrine that we are somehow a dual track. Political economy, and that's when the state comes in to correct, say, during a crisis panic moment all the prices go up irrationally.

Of course, the state will come in and instruct some state enterprises to lower the prices and to stabilize the markets. So the there was no no, no feeling that this is somehow working against the logic of the market. It's if anything, as opposed to moderate, the irrationality is propping out here and there and not wait until a hundred years when, for the market mechanism to really work out.

And but on the other hand, the idea of the market primacy as the main market. Place for for transactions and as the way to distribute resources. I think that's not going to be shaken. With whichever administration comes in place, which, whichever kind of ideological orientations.

Is taking precedence within the standing committee within the Congress. I think that stands that socioeconomically. We are a dual track political economy. We stand ready to use whichever instrument that will deliver. We will use industrial policy to support new energy, knowledge, technology, Economy based, I know the industry, there is no qualm about using industrial policy.

And so it's, if anything, it's harmonized with the market reform logic. So that's something I see at the end, since you were asking about the governmental side, I think that's going to be like a very. Stable policy, but as for how to interpret that kind of dual track identity, and as for which one to use at what moment, that is definitely a matter of prudential judgment.

And you do see ideologies coming in when the committee members or the, the top leadership. Selectively uses the different elements of that dual track identity to further its own vision of what is better for the country going forward. So it's so I guess it's not purely ideology, but it's not purely like 1 of the 2 political outlooks.

Say it's it's, there is something stable there, but also it depends on the floods and the reflux of ideological leanings. 

Ben: That makes a lot of sense. So in principle, dual track, but case by case, hard to know which track [has most of the waiting and in the moment] 

Hansong: But having, but basing your legitimacy on the dual track identity, I think, I personally find it a better alternative than many others, but I think it provides a source of stability because if you can't walk back on the dual track ideology, [...] Then at least you wouldn't go full mode, [Thatcher, or]

[Reagan] on the other hand, you wouldn't go full mode.... let's return more power to the state. If you can't really say that within the framework of legitimation then if you must provide some kind of explanation for why you're sticking to the dual track identity, then I think that's at least a constraining force and it's a good thing to have it because otherwise you could have much more unstable policies that confuse people and potentially damage the ecosystem that has been built over the past 40 years.

Ben: Sure. That makes sense. And I guess a lot of western thinkers have come out with large, broad based concepts, sometimes geographic or things. The Global South and South Asia, you've done some work on Indo Pacific. But actually, on some of those concepts, Take one, which has talked about when you unpack something like the global South, it seems so much more con complex than that broad based element.

How helpful do you think some of these concepts are? And maybe if we would unpack global South, or we could also comment on South Asia and Indo Pacific, are they. too simple as to actually being potentially not helpful or as a way, particularly for those in the West, or maybe when you're thinking about some of the causes that the global South tend to campaign for is that a useful framework for them for now and into the future?

Hansong: Yeah. Yeah. That's a great question. I think these spatial concepts are becoming more and more ambiguous and fluid. There is a narrow reading of the global South. And there's a narrow reading of the global East and the narrow reading of the global South is the Latin, Latin American, African, Asian solidarity in the 1970s moment.

When these postcolonial states sought statehood and autonomy and self rule and self national determination, UN seats and all of that, they did share and you can All that entire blog, global South. But of course now in that post 1970s moment, what is global South? That becomes more ambiguous and the global East.

Also, there was a narrow definition, all the post Soviet Eastern European or central Asian moment of, what to do now. And do we preserve the Soviet institutions? Do we mix and match? Do we grow food like EU mode? And where are we turning? Is there a third path? So that's a narrow reading, but nowadays you have plural and parallel solutions to that.

You can for example, if you're a post Soviet Central Asian state, you can go to the Turkic coalition. It's not only not yet a Turkic union, but it's a kind of international society. You can go to an Islamic world. You can go to the Eurasian, the Neo Eurasian you can do the Eurasian project of Russia.

You can do belt and road. You can do Shanghai cooperation treaty. You can do all kinds of things. So nowadays it's hard to say, what is the global East? What is Eurasia? What is global South? And it's hard to say what is the Indo Pacific? Because even if you're looking at it from the point of view of institutions, political institutions what are you going to do with South Asia?

And even just India looking at India... western all cruise type of think tankers who would like to simply impose Western liberal assumptions on the largest democracy in the world always have trouble understanding ... what exactly India is doing. It confuses them profoundly because they don't really look.

Go into the cultural aspects. So it, it's hard to pinpoint these concepts nowadays, but to look at them as intersected regional phenomena of intercultural and international development to look at them as for example, to look at. Southeast Asia as a whole, as a source of innovation.

I think that made sense to look at the global south in the South Africa and South Africa's pleading at the ICJ and all the signatories too. South Africa's case against Israel, you can definitely see some kind of coalition building there, and that's most. Around the global south. And then that kind of goes and then it conquered the global north.

'cause all the European states then decided they must side with South Africa on this limit. [At least on the li more limited] limited side of the argument that and then you have China coming and say that we have to go back to the 1970s- mode and say that anybody under occupation has the full right to resort to even violent means to to regain their territory.

And that is a pretty strong argument. So China clearly is also trying to give itself a post colonial, anti colonial identity. So you have these moments where you say, okay, these kinds of regional spatial concepts somehow make sense, but when you really try to pin down where is where it's, it becomes very fuzzy because we now live in a very, we now live in a world of parallel alternatives and all of these overlap is very hard to even single out. If there is a US backyard, a Russian backyard, if there is a region that's dominated by a set of cultural norms, because it's all very fluid. And so we live in this kind of world of of normative and in geocultural fluidity.

Ben: That makes sense. So in the historic moment, the narrow definitions make sense descriptively, like you said, East Asian moment global South moment, post 1970s or post that. But in, in today's case it's much more complex where even nation states have different things going on in them.

I'd like to turn to a couple of pieces of your work, which are I guess slightly esoteric, but still seem to tie up to me. I'm going to turn to Montesquieu and sea imagery. So I was reading that someone interprets Montesquieu as saying his law is like being a fisherman's net. So this idea that often you can swim through it and only big things get captured.

So you go through most of the time and the laws don't really affect you and obviously he was very influential to many legal systems and constitutions like the U. S. Founding Fathers and a lot due to this idea of separation of powers. But I think you've done some work on the sea imagery in Montesquieu.

So what's going on with this, the sea ocean trade and is this a way of understanding Montesquieu and economic thinking of the time? 

Hansong: Yeah, it's of course, it's one of my passion projects and Montesquieu being one of the first Western readers I came across when I was a child growing up in China.

And he's very hard to pin down because Montesquieu is very versatile and is all over the place. It's very hard to know what is Montesquieu all about? Of course, the Americans have a Separation of power in their mind and it's that kind of label Montesquieu Montesquieu wanted to be a natural philosopher.

He wanted to be even an engineer at some point. He there was a famous story where Montesquieu, of course, would go to the school. And we know this from the Asian experience. Teacher would tell you all the, horrible things happening with your child and why you should help the teacher and inculcate and infiltrate the mind of your child at home and make it easier for the school.

Also someone just went up there and asked the teacher, what's happening with my son and the teacher said I'm not sure if you're smart enough. Is really into the natural science. So he seems much more interested in the literature and the humanities. And won't just to hearing this fell back onto the chair and all growing pale in his face, Oh, no, he's not going to be another useless humanist like me.

So he's really he would rather be and a hard Art science professor and not a a rambler about law and philosophy. And and I find some of that, of course, in his early writings on the natural sciences. And he was chairing, coordinating, and sometimes writing natural science words.

And when he was traveling and noticed that he was really interested in the sea, the lagoons, and these water projects, these aquatic engineering projects. And he even had thoughts that he was going to build a machine that takes out all the mud from the lagoon. So that as to so as to facilitate a maritime traffic and trade and on the other hand.

So this is the natural scientific leanings. On the other hand, I read a lot of very classical Western thinking about the sea and land and starting with Plato and Aristotle, they wonder. Plato famously was skeptical of the port. He decided that if you have a port and everybody's coming in through the port, what's going to happen is that you will have a lot of different normative thinking and a lot of ideas of how to live your life.

What is the best way of life coming in? And it will be very hard. Yeah. To to implement what you think is the best form of civic life. So it's very dangerous to have a port. You don't know who's coming in. You don't know what's being talked about in the marketplace once you open up the port. On the other hand, he realized, oh, if we have to have a port, let's have a port.

You have, I have to have some kind of trade with other cities, other polyas. Plato never was that autarkic. He always conceded, especially in the laws, not so much in the politics. That you need to have some kind of intellectual exchange between the police. You need to have certainly some kind of trade as well.

The Montesquieu was living in a moment when commerce was really taking over with the post Machiavellian moment where there was no return. You have to have trade. And the question is how to tame trade and use trade. In a way that doesn't end up in disasters, but actually benefit your physical well being and all the entire health of the civic body as a kind of in a physiological sense as a body politic that the money is circulating through your body.

Rousseau would call it would make the metaphor. The money has blood going through your your body. But if you have too much finance, unregulated finance, it's almost like having too much fat clodding your veins. Montesquieu was already thinking in those terms. He said that Marseille classical, like ancient Marseille, and also in his own time, was it, it's good to have all the ideas coming in and all the different groups and services coming in.

But the question is how do you think about it legally, philosophically in such a way as. To promote and not to damage the health of the citizenry. And so those two strains of thought, his interest in the sea as a natural phenomenon is interested in the fact of human sociability on the sea.

So maritime sciences or oceanography, there wasn't like proper oceanography yet, but some kind of oceanography. And maritime sociability and the political philosophy, legal philosophy of of human movements of people, ideas, goods, materials, tests on the sea or came together and made Montesquieu this this, I think a major thinker of the sea.

I identify him as a pivotal moment in history, political thought. And and I think he really made a huge Impact his nose, his diaries during his voyage went directly into it. So the the spirit of the laws where, you know, the founding fathers of America founding moment they drew a lot of inspiration from it, but I think it really was a kind of collection of reflection on what he saw and thought during his travels.

And he thought a lot about the sea during his travels. 

Ben: Okay, I hadn't appreciated that and then the interlink obviously at the time that to see was so important for trade and trade being the lifeblood of what's going on there. But like you say, needed to be tamed. You don't want it to be clogged. You mentioned Rousseau as well, and I hadn't realized until reading your work that he had a plan for Corsica and its government in the mid 1700s.

And this kind of plan has echoes today about. Or perhaps it doesn't we can discuss that relevant to thinking about what do we do for developing countries? Yes, should other richer nations have a plan for these countries? What should that plan be? Is international aid good or not? Do you wrap it into your own political ambitions... like give cheap loans... buy land... belt and road or international aid or whatever but maybe we could start with what do you think about Rousseau's plan for Corsica in the 1700s? What did that mean? And has that actually influenced our thinking about global development today? And then what people think about, these supposedly less developing countries and what other thinkers should demand or suggest for them in terms of their own development economy?

Hansong: Absolutely. It's a wonderful question. It would allow me to be very honest about it because when I was looking at Rousseau's historical thought on what to do with Corsica, I was completely, my mind was completely filled with development economics as a discipline and my reflections and critiques Of that and my own preference when it comes to thinking about development in our own time.

So I think they're really connecting. It's very personal as a piece of history of political thought. It felt very personal to me. So Rousseau was invited to give a constitutional plan. It wasn't really like a constitution in like strict doctrinal legal sense, but he was reflecting on the situation in Corsica, so it's a very contextual piece.

Not only that we need to contextualize him in that moment, but that piece itself reflects the way he contextualizes Corsica at that particular moment. And occasionally he made the essentialist remarks on the, how the Corsicans are brave and they're just intrinsically good as a people. But of course, you have to say that when you're legislating for them, you're all stupid.

And here I am, I'm your legislator, but he certainly thought a lot about an African. of an affinity with the core students. But more largely, he was thinking systematically and it was thinking he was trying to apply, really what he thought about the the questions bothering Europe at the time, which is the physical, the fiscal and financial imbalance, which Took many years and centuries for France to resolve.

At the time, the question is, are you going to use finance? If you use finance, and if you finance your your military campaigns, are you ever going to pay it back? Is there something else? There's some other way to finance the army is, They're another way to finance these other development projects.

Rousseau's answer is surprisingly pragmatic, but it's also, at the end of the day, I think it's quite radical. He believes that Corsica first of all, since we were talking about the sea, the Corsica is an island. He says you should close it up for a while. Most readers of that piece think that he's autarkic.

He wants to close the entire island to the outside world. I disagree. He clearly, there is a temporal thinking there. He wants to close this, the island to the geopolitical threats for at least a while enough time so that Corsica could grow into an economic not an economic power, but at least grow to a sufficient degree where it would be able to finance its own defense. So in the here and now Corsica should start with agriculture, and that's why people think he's autarkic, but you have to start with agriculture and then go into industries. And for now, the different regions of Corsica, given these different geographical features, they should trade inter regionally.

And if you don't have a healthy cash flow- barter, no but you trade by goods first, and then you can have a currency system. So he's not against currency, he's not against trade, he's not against opening up, he just thinks that you need to do it step by step, stage by stage. And then we're getting very close to the kind of economic development idea there.

And he thinks that you should build up a surplus in course of time, a very rudimentary sense of surplus by agriculture and industry and collect that surplus invested in where you think matters the most and in a sustainable way. The extraction of salt should be very carefully deliberated because there are these easier to extract harder to extract or higher quality salt that you want to export 1 day.

So please try to do it sustainably. There are woods of different calibers. You need to save up the best wood that in the future will be used to construct warships. But for now, you're not having a Navy because you're not there yet. And let's. Use the worst would for just daily consumption. So he's very careful at every step.

He wants to make sure you're doing the right thing so that the plan would evolve into the future. And how does that teach us? What does that teach us about economic development? This whole idea that look at Northeast Asia, look at Korea, Japan, China and Taiwan for a while, when during the cold war They were very much using industrial policy to build up surplus at home.

And then they were using that surplus in a very centralized way. The Republican Chinese government in Taiwan, of course, used industrial policy. Korea, South Korea used a lot of industrial policy to build up the surplus. And Japan, under all the influence from the U. S. Still, it tried to really concentrate its energy on certain sectors and to succeed from that from there.

And China is also a [an example..] China is a great example that we built a surplus from, manufacturing and other industrial activities. And then selectively and concentratedly use that surplus to advance other knowledge, economic productions. And so as to to leap across certain stages of development and to go straight to the more innovative parts.

And there is a certain level of success. Empirically it, it worked to some degree, at least that's from the anxieties we see now with Chinese export of EVs back to Europe that this idea of. Building a surplus investing strategically and then going straight to the more innovative sectors and then while maintaining an overall balanced healthy economic development.

That is very resilient to me. That's very resilient. And it's not just about opening up. And then you naturally see the. Then the resources will flow and the incentives will work. And then somehow in 300 years, it will grow to a some kind of natural, naturally grow into a political economy that you're teleologically determined to be.

There is, there's not that kind of big band full blown. I don't think any economies, even my Chicago teachers, I don't think any of them really think like that. I think there was Rousseauianism in every. Economic thinker of development. So that's what I learned from it. And I think we can learn a lot from Rousseau's thinking.

Of course, it's not just authentic agrarianism. It's very sophisticated in step stage by stage. He walks you by the hand and tells you what to do. And and it's a very open minded outcome there. 

Ben: It's really fascinating. And just seeing how these patterns of economic thought, go back and where they start and how they then express themselves today.

I guess that leaves me also with a couple of thoughts. So one is for particularly the poorest nations is international aid potentially then more detrimental than not, I guess there's a couple of schools of thought. So one school of thought which Deaton, the economist suggests is that if you give international aid, the country itself cannot develop its own... that well, its own infrastructure, its own form of government or institutional capacity. International aid will often misallocate not very well and therefore produce more harm than good. The opposing thought is that. You get there's a kind of hump that you need to get over in terms of some sort of surplus or you need some capital they don't have access to cost cheap call it cheap capital so if you get cheap or free capital from other places you can make really big differences in terms of things and the so that's One blob I'm thinking about and then the second kind of almost riffing off You're saying is I can see the success of so Korea or Singapore and in Japan And then you've got those which look like they might be doing something similar So say Vietnam, which is still a little bit manufacturing But you can see is going up into some higher knowledge even Bangladesh Which has been pretty successful in clothing other manufacturing seems to have other elements going through you parts of India, whereas that whereas it looks like this could be quite hard to replicate in places like Africa, where it's hard to see what even their domestic surplus would be.

I don't know. There's kind of arguments Other side of that. And so whether that playbook will still work for some nations, it could actually still definitely work in places of Latin America. Arguably Mexico is actually doing this similar idea as well. So I guess there's two components because international aid listed on that.

So do you think it will still happen that way? And we should encourage that. Today and where does international aid play if that playbook is the one to follow or not? 

Hansong: Absolutely so the part one of the question is about international aid and I think there are different levels on which we can think about it.

Some international aid is through international, Organizations institutions and humanitarian aid, and that's one thing. There are compensated compensation, motivating international aid. And then there is also this kind of development oriented loans and other forms of aid. And if you're talking about.

Political science literature is on the effectiveness or political economic literature is on the factings of these international aid. It's very context dependent. Once the aid or FDI, in more like classical or neoliberal terms, come in and gets injected into the domestic political economy, a lot depends on the ecosystem in that country and how it's being channeled into the economic lives of the people.

I think it's the aid loans and foreign direct investment, and then they certainly form an important channel through which the initial surplus, the initial capital could be found. But we shouldn't simply. Assume that the allocation will be uniform across the board because it depends a lot on, again, on the ecosystem at home and the ecosystem cannot always be dependent always be dependent on because it fluctuates from government to government from, factors like corruption to simply how favorable it is to do business and invest in these projects.

And from the bottom up, we also see entrepreneurs Either from homegrown entrepreneurs or entrepreneurs with education from abroad who need to then adapt to their home environments. They could also come in and feel those institutional voice when you can't really rely on the government and providing a perfect Martin environment then you can do something that will also alter and hopefully optimize that that environment.

I think a lot of the. I guess the ways that this model cannot be simply generalized and applied in across geocultural regions is has to do with that. But I think the people on the ground and with, if you can negotiate different kinds of expertise is a little expertise scientific expertise and marketing incentives an effective way to negotiate these Different sources of knowledge, so this kind of epistemic synthesis, if it works well, then you can adapt in different contexts.

But I think across the board, what is general about this? So an insight is that you need to before you can strategically invest in anything that then make up your political economic identity to even get to that stage of being able to choose. The Milton Friedman says the free to choose, but you have to have a base from which to choose.

And how do you get that base? Is I think all the African students whom I've come across at Harvard, they tell me that what they envy about, or they, what they want to emulate from like these Northeastern nowadays and Southeastern Asian countries is is to get to that base. And not to emulate or imitate any of these models, there is no such thing as a Chinese, Korean, there's no, no such thing as a Northeastern or Southeast Asian model of development, but there is that sense that you need to have a base and just blindly waiting for FDI to generate the base for you, or to simply let loose your speculative financial system and wait until the free investments from random incentives takes place.

To do the magic of building your base is probably not going to be as effective as if you're also willing to combine it with some kind of industrial policy or some other kinds of planning that of course, should not interfere then with the market mechanism. So it again comes down to if you can do a dual track or multi track kind of development.

Ben: That makes a lot of sense. So that, international aid compensation or humanitarian, whatever it is, can work on a context specific basis, but you need to get all of those things together, but in terms of overall development, if you don't have a base [to] work with some sort of foundation where you're at least neutral or ideally have some surplus, then it's really hard.

So you might be aiming at the wrong question. If particularly for really poor, say African nations where, you know, where they are below that. Okay. So trying to put a lot of this all together So this is impossible task. I'm going to put some things to decide because obviously we got Chinese political and economic thought.

We're going to loosely call that dual track. You've got actually another kind of geopolitical axis centered around that. Perhaps you have Russia, India, Indonesia. So this is one whole axis. I'm going to slightly put that to the side because we touched on it slightly in terms of development economics and Chinese thought.

And then if you put the other side, the kind of Anglo Saxon, Europe, UK America, North America. There's a sense here that there's been a split as well. So I guess we've called it a neoliberal or free market, although they would argue how free it, it really was. And now there's a kind of pushback.

You've got the extreme pushback, which I would say, they tend to call this then, late capitalism or post colonial and leads into arguments around degrowth, which is a kind of very Malthus, Malthusian idea, actually which, we can comment on, but really backs away from economic growth, which is problematic in its own sense, but it's a kind of backlash from some of this.

And then you've also got, even in Western thinking it comes and goes, but in terms of industrial policies, but the U. S. with the Inflation Reduction Act, IRA is a kind of industrial policy piece. Actually, if you unpack it, if if China or Russia announced it, you go, Oh that's definitely industrial policy.

It's interesting that you've had that and some supply side, economics with it. When we stretch it all the way back to economic thoughts, you can go back to Adam Smith, you can even go back earlier to some of the the Roman or other thinkers or trade thinkers.

It just seems that we're having another evolution in, in, in the thinking about what what markets or what capitalism would be. How do you think that that balance is at the moment between the opening up that we had over, the Thatcher, Reagan years Friedman with, much more free markets less regulation, but what do we do with the lifeblood of trade to where we are today, where there's been a partial backlash.

Some of it is still going on. We've got some places which have some industrial policy. We've got pushback on both sides, from left and right as to working out, particularly in Western thought. But if you look at growth today, it's muddling through, it's positive, not as high as it was, but it's certainly not is not yet sort of recession.

And then these are just tensions between free markets, industrial thinking, Or all the way, is that how you would think about that Western part of the world? And do you see that balance shifting anymore into where we see the near future? 

Hansong: It's an enormous question. I certainly now as a now, as I'm pretending to be an international lawyer in Germany, I I always hear this nostalgia, of course, for the 1990s and nostalgia coming from the legal, juridical community is that it was a time when global institutions diffused.

Of course, that meant Western transatlantic values and institutions diffused, but of course it diffused. Until recently only because of this 2 reasons. 1st of all, there is the Western and transatlantic NATO domination in the security sphere. And then there's the economic consensus that free market has 1 and so there are these 2 reasons.

So it values institutions only diffused under these 2 umbrellas now, both are being challenged because with the diffusion of material power and agency no, you no longer have those kind of us Western European led global security system on the 1 hand. And you also don't have this universal uniform consensus that there is 1, only 1 way to advance economically.

So I agree with you that we're not in the complete, moment of rejection of of the post 1970s, 1990s the golden era of a global liberal economic doctrines. We're not there yet, but there's definitely a lot of reflections, as you also pointed out and critiques of that, and both from the left and from the right and part of the critique.

At home across Western nation states especially in the U. S. and Europe with where you, I didn't really see this so called back right wing populist backlash has to do with socioeconomic inequalities and different the hierarchy of priorities when it comes to socioeconomic distribution. So it is fundamentally a question about distribution- distribute distributive justice. Now the right things we have the wrong priorities. We prioritize all of these global projects or liberal elite projects and spend a lot of money on these leftist ideological programs, but do very little about the very basics. If you go to a [poor/run down] in the rural areas of Northern Netherlands.

Of course, the peasants used to vote for the Communist Party, but now they have no viable leftist alternative. So they do turn to the right wing parties for simply the socio economic quest of, more egalitarianism or something like that. And then on top of this kind of distributive discontent, you have a productive reflection, which is holding production constant, we're moderately growing. The question is how to distribute more fairly. You also have this question of can you sustainably grow or even grow further into the future? And then you look at different modes of growth and not necessarily the rates of growth. That transatlantic economies are no longer the sole drivers of innovative economic productions, right? You now have productive hubs, innovative hubs across the metropolitan areas of East, South, Southeast Asia, Latin America. Occasionally also, in Africa, there was a lot of, it's just not as systematic, but there are a lot of these innovative hubs across Africa.

And and of course you still have Silicon Valley, you have Boston, you have Frankfurt, you have other places, yes, but this diffusion of innovative capacity and agency is definitely a fact. So now the question is, are you going to have something to say about production, not just distribution?

Are you going to have something to say about both? And to think about it more productively, I, on the level of production, I think. There is a kind of sober moment where this idea of the, reindustrialization in it may be not in, in the literal sense of it, but it's introducing some industrial policy elements or to think about, is.

Technology uni is technology linear in its development evolution. Do we have different preferences and aesthetic tastes when it comes to what to innovate? If we have scarce resource to invest in Potentially 10 different things, which ones do we care more about at the normative level? And to go back to the Chicago school, if you look at Frank Knight and these 1st generation, 2nd generation, even and even Milton Friedman and certainly higher and others, they draw a clear line.

Between aesthetic taste and market efficiency. And so the whole idea is that only if you hold taste and aesthetics constant, can you have a framework of price theory or can you have a framework of market mechanism to allocate resources effectively? But of course, we have different philosophies of aesthetics.

So I think that- that also means that when it comes to technology there is not a linear progression towards something like a particular kind of AI or something. You can choose what to develop. China chose to invest fully- emotionally also- but also financially in EVs, but you don't have to do, you can do something else because there's only so much you can do with your limited time and resource.

So I think we need to rethink at least on the level of production, what to invest in, which ones are worth our time and energy and thought. What do we care about as a political community? And as humanity as the human collectivity. Yeah. Altogether, but whichever way we go and whatever we think it's no longer viable to simply sit there and say that the global distribution of labor and the way we invest in these alternative projects of economic production is simply.

Something according to a magical algorithm embedded into whatever we received from the 1970s and 1990s global economy, because that has drastically and dramatically changed. 

Ben: I hadn't picked up on that point on aesthetics about having an agreed set of taste, which does it. And actually that you can see in some places, for instance, in the Nordic countries where they become more heterozygous, they just weren't, they weren't as, they were more homogenous than perhaps they had realized.

So with this has produced. Difficulties in terms of setting that and that interesting thing about actually nation states will maybe have to decide what they want to focus on and they can focus on all sorts of things, whether it was, EV or batteries or art or whatever it will be, but they might have to focus.

Excellent. Okay. Running through the last couple of sets of questions, something a little bit more fun for, although also with that it's thinking about Hamilton, the musical. And I hadn't realized in your reading of Hamilton that actually there is, in some ways, if you look at it today in its reading, there's a kind of almost pro Democrat, pro Biden sense to running through Hamilton.

And that actually. It's it can be thinking slightly selective in terms of what you want to emphasize or not emphasize within the musical as well as all the dance numbers and songs and things. But do you think is your reading of Hamilton that its current reading is actually slightly more democrat than Republican?

Does it have a politics to it? And how else should we understand both the songs and the story narrative in the musical version that Lin Miranda did for us? 

Hansong: Thank you for asking that. It's a very fun question. I, my reading is that the Hamilton is A great piece of art but of course it was produced in the late Obama context where a more progressive and appealing sense of social mobility was used to provide a kind of.

Common ground on which we can reason together as as, one American nation. And so the idea is that Hamilton technically it's not an immigrant. If you went from one British colony to another and Lafayette somehow, they like they. A clap hands and they feel like we, we immigrants do the job and something like that.

I'm Lafayette was certainly not an immigrant. He was a French. But this whole, I, this emphasis on immigrants rising right from random, from poverty, all the way to the founding father status and and this kind of heroism in that story of social mobility. A very individualistic heroism and romanticization of social mobility in a pivotal moment in American history.

So that's, of course, a, I think there is that's definitely a, an undertone that a basso continuo throughout the musical. And is it's, of course, a lot of the in that historical inaccuracies come from the book on which it was based. So I wouldn't blame the production team for that, but at least the kind of ideological message there.

That America is socially mobile, that you can be an individual hero from just being ambitious and hardworking. And this idea that Hamilton started with calling his mother a whore and son of a whore and goths and Scotsman. It's not true that his mother was called a whore by in the court by someone who was trying to abuse and and and vilify her, but what's she.

So this over emphasis on him being from very humble backgrounds, but just through his own exertion of energy and and effort rose to what he was. And then where is Hamilton's financial ideologies? Of course, not emphasized. His hawkishness is neglected. So all of the troubling things that still matter.

America today, right? Hawkishness in foreign policy. This trust in, of course, we shouldn't over, shouldn't oversimplify that either, but his trust in them the financial system that he created and all of these are omitted in preference to, to give time. To glorify this individual heroism and social mobility story.

So I, I think that is quite ideological. And then, of course, at a superficial level, we can also look at the way the production team and the actors and actresses literally intervened, lecturing Mike Pence, not that he shouldn't be lectured on, but it just, now that you've seen the show, here is something we want to say to Mike Pence, who's sitting right there and the way they gave free tickets to the Hillary campaign.

It's quite obvious also at that kind of campaign political level. But I care more as a political philosopher, I care much more about the messages it delivers. And. Of course it resonates with Upper East Side, Upper West Side, New Yorkers who see it. But if you go to the Rust Belt, if you go to the Deep South, if you go to rural America and play Hamilton does it resonate with them?

Are you going to use Hamilton to turn around the upcoming election? I am seriously skeptical of that. 

Ben: Maybe not. Although that that doubling down on this idea that the underdog through Just hard work and become the pinnacle of being America is the American, I'm going to say myth in the kind of most positive sense, like every nation state has to have it.

It's missed the British like underdogs and we like royalty, right? And the Americans like this American dream that, immigrants and that. And so it's really interesting the way you see it. And you can see from the outside that's being constructed. And yeah, there is a Democrat slant, but the actually it's, it is a left and right thing.

This idea that no matter how poor you start off with hard work, you can make it to the top, even how mythical in actual practice. That is for the average anyone, but average Americans, that's interesting. Wait, okay, we have a short section of underrated and overrated, and then we'll finish on current projects and life advice.

So just a couple of things random things about whether you think these things are underrated or overrated. 

Sauerkraut. 

Do you think sauerkraut is underrated or overrated? 

Hansong: Underrated because of how global they actually are. And of course, German sauerkraut is overrated, but there is a global sauerkraut phenomenon.

Ben: So that's like kimchi and all the fermentation foods. Yeah. Okay. All right. Global sauerkraut. Underrated. The German version maybe not so much. Great. I stick on the food theme. Rice porridge or congee, do you think it's an underrated or overrated dish? 

Hansong: Overrated in the white rice version of it.

Of course, you can have millet and other things we eat in the north. So I think because of the Cantonese influence, we always think of it as white rice. So again, I think it's. The narrow sense is overrated, but the broader idea of the porridge with grains in it. It's... underrated. The grain porridge.

Yeah. I've been cheating. I've been cheating. It's always the same. 

Ben: Go into politics. On the one hand. Yes. On the other hand. No. So I'll take votes from both sides. Very good. Classical music today. 

Hansong: Today. Yes.

Ben: No, I guess in the, in history, but I guess how we do it today. So is it underrated or overrated?

Hansong: Oh, wow, that's very difficult. I think it's I think it's still underrated. 

[Cross-talk] Neutral. Yeah still under Yeah, I think it's the right amount in terms of the I think it's overrated in the industry. 

In the industry I think the musical the classical music industry is in terrible shape so it it's not healthy but I think in terms of it's impact on the way of the way of thought.

In the way that we talked about the musicals it's underrated because we don't realize how it actually shapes society in very profound ways. But I think the classical music as an industry as a group of people doing what they're doing, I think it's overrated in the sense that there is inflated and it's not it's not.

It's all the market incentives are distorted and you don't have jobs for the musician, it's in horrible shape. 

Ben: Okay. And last one on this, then maybe harking back to Hamilton, musical theater overrated, underrated. Should we have more or should we have less of musical theater? I 

Hansong: think the right amount or a slightly overrated because but I shouldn't say that.

Let's say the right amount, because I think the at least by Broadway standards, I think it's still healthy. Yeah. 

Ben: Yeah. It's still very influential on, on the world. I think that's the one thing about arts and humanities, because we don't realize how. Yeah, so you don't have like in the hard sciences, you don't have exact answers and they change we know in the moment in the context. 

They are so influential on [absolutely] how we are

Hansong: I would say it's underrated in China where I write these musical reviews.

Musicals have not become the standard currency of language or currency of thought In east asia yet. There are a lot of fans because But they don't really delve into the musicals in the ways that musicals are obviously scrutinized and interrogated very deeply in in Anglo American art.

So I think it's underrated in East Asia, I would say. 

Ben: Yeah. It's interesting if I think of performative arts in the broad sense the popularity of TikTok to me. is a slight sign about both the power of essentially performance. These are just mini performances done by individuals.

Some of them are that, but the fact that it draws in such an audience and you have everything from the really banal and not to quite political thought embedded within essentially these performances, they were a form of performance. And I think it's a form of social artifact. Really social media overall, but even in the TikTok form I think it's a, it's a broadly thinking it's a kind of form of art or expression and actually it's a form of social expression.

[So absolutely] Yeah, it's really intriguing. Great. All right. Last couple of questions. What are your current projects that you're working on or anything in the future that you'd like to share? 

Hansong: I'm working on a few projects. One is a global micro history of Shanghai's sand shipping industries in, 17, late 17th to the early 20th century. So from when sand shipping... 

Ben: is that shipping literally gravel? 

Hansong: In this, it started as a way of shipping on sandy maritime terrain. So you could easily run into these sandy rocks and other things. So it requires a slightly adjusted technology when it comes to navigation, but then it got into deep oceanic waters.

So at least start at the start, it was more like on the. In the yellow sea in the northeastern Asian seas, and then it slowly was able to go into the deeper and stormier waters of the South China Sea. The, but it's I also looked at the sociological phenomenon of sandshipping merchants, the way they integrate in an infrastructure.

Urban development in Shanghai. They were financing police stations. They were financing lifeguards along the seacoast, and they were building theaters for the city. And they also were increasing the enrollments of local academies and sending more people to Beijing for civil examinations. These are like, Shanghai is the Gentries who were generous who generated the profit from from shipping and they went to Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia, but also just between North and South China.

And then used to use our language of the surplus, to use their surplus to do these projects, these cultural projects, these political liaisons they've built within. And so it's a kind of global micro history of a. Of Shanghai as it turned from the late imperial to the international status.

So that's one project. 

Ben: It's interesting how a lot of these big, important organizations, companies even call them put this, call it civic arm onto themselves as they get to a certain size. Even if you look at a Google alphabet today, they have a Google culture. Thing Apple have the same Facebook meta has the same micro Microsoft of this, the same.

And some of it is now called this. Social responsibilities here, something, but a lot of it is this, you're influencing the humanities and arts for either locally. So local companies always do it in their community, but then when you reach this global scale, because of this interaction of essentially social phenomena, which you then become a part of.

And if you don't influence it or steer it into your favor you're not as You're not thought of as the same as you're not as important. Absolutely. Anyway...

Hansong: As a historian of political and economic thought, I would add that in the early modern moment, the idea of the state as a corpus, as a body, and the idea as a of course the body and the state and the corporation.

And that's how it the, these ideas ran in parallel that the corporation was a corpus and was also a kind of state and the state was a kind of corpus and a corporation. And these three metaphors really were blended since the early modern era, and we're still living in that kind of intellectual legacy and thinking of states and enterprises, right?

We still draw these analogies between states and enterprises, but that's a small note. Yeah. Yeah. And the other project I am working on is a book on the ideas of interpolitical justice. In. In Western Indian Chinese traditions. So I draw from my classical and in analog chronological musings to shed light on how political communities have thought about ideas of justice across.

Territorial and cultural borders. And so it's a kind of comparative and connective a study of ideas of common justice in 3 different thought worlds. And so that is the more theoretical and normative project. And the Shanghai merchants are the fun project. 

Ben: Excellent. Great. And then last question is, do you have any life advice or advice that you want to share?

Maybe advice thinking about being an international public intellectual or scholar or advice on music or the arts or your career or anything you'd like to share with us? 

Hansong: My advice would be just to do a lot of travelings, because I'm a enthusiastic traveler, and of course, to the idea of being open minded to different ways of life, I think it's a very Herodotian anthropological starting point to be, to be in any but of course, certainly to be a public intellectual nowadays you have to be an inter public intellectual.

It's hard to be a public intellectual in the U. S. or in Europe without having something to say or just being able to understand what's happening in Ukraine and in Gaza. So it's no longer viable to be a public intellectual, you have to be inter public, and to be inter public you have to be able to think inter normatively.

How do you think inter normatively between different ways of different cosmological approaches to making sense of what's happening around the world of course learning more languages and talking to people from very different normative backgrounds, and of course to go there and take a look. So it's but it's also not this kind of globalist ideology of, Traveling around and it's, it could be very, it's in China, it's a medieval ideal of traveling around and blending in with with the landscapes wherever you go.

One of my favorite thinkers, poets writers, literati from the Weijing period, late Three Kingdoms, early Weijing moment Renzi, he was famous for having said, I think he said he his ideal life is Huo Bi Hu Shi Shu, Lei Yue Bu Chu. I would rather stay at home and close my windows and read for months and not go out.

Or he would travel around and and and forget to even return. So you can go in between these two modes and but the idea is, That is no longer viable to stick to a very enclosed a normative framework. Now that we have no choice, but to have something in mind about what's happening around the world and all the, and even just locally, how a global divisions of labor are affected.

In our local lives, and how we can no longer take anything for granted without regard to what kind of global understanding. So I think that would be a nice to travel a lot like Herodotus did Montesquieu did, like Montaigne did, and keep a travel journal as I do. Write down your conversations with the locals and reflect on them many years later, show it to your friends and families and hear what they think the more communicative assets to invoke the Harvard Marcian concept to globalize it, because Harvard must distort ethic is still quite limited in my view, but to expand it and have a kind of global discourse assets and do the conversations like we're doing right now with more people.

Ben: That sounds great. Yes. To travel is to learn. With that thank you very much. 

Hansong: Thank you, Ben. It's been a pleasure. Thank you so much. I enjoyed the conversation.

In Podcast, Politics, Life, Arts Tags Hanging Li, Travel, Economics, China, History

Garrett Graff: Aliens, Mysteries of UFOs, Watergate, 9/11, Government trust | Podcast

February 14, 2024 Ben Yeoh

Garrett Graff, a writer and historian who specializes in 'near history', discusses his book, 'UFO', about the US government's search for alien life. He touches upon how we often misunderstand UFO sightings, suggesting they could be due to a mix of physical anomalies and governmental or adversary secret flight technologies. Graff also shares his belief in the possibility of alien civilizations, arguing probabilities suggest the existence of life outside Earth. He then relates UFO conspiracies to a societal mistrust in government and institutions, tying it back to events like the Watergate scandal. Graff finally introduces his forthcoming oral history book on D-Day, emphasizing how his work emphasizes explaining and organizing complex events in an understandable and comprehensive way.

"When people ask 'do UFOs?'...That's not actually the question that they mean. The question that they really mean is, 'are we alone?' Because the truth of the matter is of course UFOs exist. All a UFO is an unidentified flying object, and there are things out there that we don't know what they are. Whether those are extraterrestrial is a very different question and potentially unrelated to the question of, are there extraterrestrials."

Transcript and podcast recording below. 
Contents:

  • 00:31 Exploring the Mysteries of UFOs

  • 03:05 The Probability of Alien Life

  • 06:21 The Government's Role in UFO Research

  • 19:03 The Impact of Conspiracy Theories

  • 29:40 The Connection Between UFOs and Politics

  • 33:28 The Importance of Trust in Government

  • 47:21 The Writing Process and Future Projects

Podcast wherever you get podcasts or links below. Video above or on YouTube. Transcript follows below.

PODCAST INFO

  • Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3gJTSuo

  • Spotify: https://sptfy.com/benyeoh

  • Anchor: https://anchor.fm/benjamin-yeoh

  • All links:  https://pod.link/1562738506


Transcript (this is AI assisted and errors are possible)

Ben: Hey everybody, I'm super excited to be speaking to Garrett Graff. Garrett is a writer and historian. His latest book is UFO, about the US government's search for alien life. Previous award winning work includes Watergate, exploring the political scandal, The Only Plane in the Sky, which is an oral history of 9/11, and Raven Rock, about US government plans to survive existential threats.

Garrett, welcome. 

Garrett: Thanks so much for having me. It's great to see you. 

Ben: In your latest book you weave the machinery of government The search for extraterrestrial life and the mysteries of unexplained flying objects. What do you think was most misunderstood in what you learned? 

Garrett: Oh, that's a good question. I think, to me, there were a couple of things that stood out.

One is the possibility, when people hear UFO, we immediately leap to think extraterrestrial. And part of the challenge is, UFOs probably don't have one answer or one solution. It is probably a mix of physical objects that we don't understand currently. Some of it is our own government's secret flight development efforts.

Some of it is adversary government's secret flight development efforts. And then, some of it is almost certainly phenomenon that we do not yet understand. Meteorological, atmospheric astronomical phenomenon that we don't yet understand. When people ask do UFOs? Which is the question. that a lot of people start with when they hear something like, oh, you're working on a book about UFOs.

That's not actually the question that they mean. That the question that they really mean is, are we alone? Because the truth of the matter is of course UFOs exist. All a UFO is an unidentified Flying object, and there are things out there that we don't know what they are whether those are extraterrestrial is a very different question and potentially unrelated to the question of, are there extraterrestrials which I think is like part of the question.

When I spend some time in the book attempting to untangle because it is simultaneously possible that there are alien civilizations, life and intelligent life all across the universe and that all of it or most of it is too far away for us to ever know or have Meaningful contact with or might just not overlap with us and our civilization at this precise moment in the history of the universe, which is something that we can talk about, too.

Garrett: But One of the biggest revolutions that I try to capture in this book is the idea that the math is very much now on the side of the aliens. That we, as late as the 1990s, did not realize that there was a single planet outside of our own solar system. And we now believe that there are effectively planets orbiting every star in the universe.

And as we've come to understand the scale and size and scope of the universe, we've come to understand that number is on the order of magnitude of one sextillion of those planets might be habitable. Which is to say they fall into what scientists call the Goldilocks zone. They're not too hot, not too cold.

They could support water. They could support an atmosphere. They could support life as we recognize it. There's a whole other question, by the way, of what life could look like that we wouldn't recognize it, that we wouldn't be able to identify the characteristics of a planet that could support intelligent life or life That we would not recognize, that would not be carbon based, oxygen breathing life.

And there's a lot of interesting science around, what that could be as well. But that, to me A lot of what this book was, and a lot of what this research process was attempting to untangle all of these different threads. That people start with this question of, are UFOs real? Which is the wrong question to start with, and then breaking that down into what the right questions are to ask, and what the individual pieces of those answers end up being.

Ben: That was very clear in the book, that you had these two threads. One was Alien life outside of the planet and the other was these unexplained objects, as you say, which have on the surface, quite a mundane definition. So do you think for the, starting with the mundane ones and you listed all the likely explanations.

physical phenomena we don't understand yet government plans and the like. It seems that most of those you're tilting to having essentially a mundane explanation. Would you say that's correct? So like over 90 percent of them you think will maybe, may be mundane. Whereas also for the aliens, things out of this world, you're essentially saying the balance of probabilities, sextillion, I can't quite remember how many zeros that is, but it's a lot.

It's 15 or 20 zeros after a one, just on the balance of probabilities. Even if you put very low chances, you're going to have something, but also with those distances from the lifespan that humans might be around, if you say, draw it to how long dinosaurs been around, we might never meet any of that alien life because it's too.

Too far for distance travels. Do I have those two threads correct in terms of the arguments you're weaving into the book? 

Garrett: Absolutely. And what I think you see is this challenge that normally scientists and journalists and historians try to treat these two threads differently. They poo the like wacky conspiracy UFO people here on earth and then talk about the like serious astronomers doing serious science work on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence out across the universe. And the truth of the matter, of course, is that these threads are not unrelated. And so my book really tried to weave these two stories together.

In part because for very obvious reasons, a big part of the question of are aliens visiting Earth is are aliens out there at all? And what's interesting as you get into it is Even the scientists who are dubious about UFOs being extraterrestrials don't necessarily argue that aliens don't visit Earth.

Carl Sagan in the 20th century, probably the most famous astronomer of the 20th century, was simultaneously the lead skeptic that UFOs represented extraterrestrial visitors and also simultaneously the lead proponent of the search for extraterrestrial intelligence SETI across the universe. And his argument was that statistically, when you look at the percentage of planets and the probabilities of intelligent life arising et cetera, et cetera, The vastness of interstellar space.

You would expect aliens and other intelligent civilizations to visit earth about every hundred thousand or 200, 000 years. So his argument wasn't that aliens don't come here. It's that the thing that you saw last Tuesday night out your window is unlikely, statistically, to be the one day that the aliens stopped by in the last 200, 000 years.

Because Sagan's argument, the argument of a lot of the scientists who work on SETI is that our civilization is too new and too insignificant for anyone to care about, even if We exist and that alien, we have this like wonderfully human centric vision of us being worthy of other intelligent civilizations wanting to cross interstellar space to come visit us either out of friendship or because they want to invade us and harvest our organs for food or energy, what have you.

Whereas aliens are probably much more likely to treat Earth much like we would treat a rest area on the Jersey Turnpike, which is a stopover on the way from one interesting place to another. And that one of the things that we probably misunderstand is how first contact would actually exist.

Hollywood has given us over the decades, really three scenarios for our first contact with an alien civilization. And they are all very clear, unambiguous and earth focused. So you have the independence day flying saucer over the white house. Take me to your leader version. You have the Jodie Foster contact radio message from outer space version.

And then you have the E. T. Stranded Lone Traveler version. The much more likely scenario is that we will first encounter or detect effectively a piece of space trash. We will see a piece of a defunct spaceship or old space probe or some piece of wreckage floating through our solar system and know that it doesn't come from us.

But not know who it comes from. Harvard astronomy chair, Avi Loeb talks about this as the equivalent of the like empty plastic bag blowing through our cosmic backyard. That doesn't come from our Walmart. Like whose Walmart does that come from? And that the, we're going to be left with this puzzle of, where does this.

Is this civilization still around? Is this friend or foe? Where was this located when it launched, when it started? And it's possible, by the way, that we've actually already detected that. There was this In 2017 scientists belatedly detected a Interstellar object moving through our solar system that they named Oumuamua.

And we know very little about Oumuamua because we had missed it until it was already on its way out of the solar system. So we have this like far off trailing and deteriorating set of data about it, but it had pretty weird characteristics and we know that it came from outside of our our our solar system and galaxy we don't really know where it came from.

And some scientists, including that Harvard astronomy chair, Avi Loeb have speculated that it might have been a piece of wreckage of a spaceship or a space probe and that it's characteristics mimic what we would expect the characteristics of a. Light sail to be which is a object that scientists here on earth are just in the early stages of developing, but are the way that they this incredibly thin, incredibly wide.

Object that would be able to be powered basically by light from the sun or a laser that you could speed up, that you could get going pretty quickly and that maybe a muamua was some incredibly old light sail from some other civilization. And that one of the challenges of this is our technology just isn't that good.

One of the things as you, we begin to think about how and when and where we might detect. Other intelligent life or pieces of that space wreckage or probes from other planets, if they're not coming here, is that we don't actually have a piece of technology on Earth right now that could detect it.

And so I think A probe or spacecraft moving through our solar system at a fraction of the speed of light that, you would expect that any intelligent civilization that had mastered the vastness of interstellar space would have figured out a way. to move at a fraction of the speed of light.

And right now we don't have the technology to detect those objects. And one of the weirdest outcomes, one of the weirdest thought experiments of this is our solar system could be being passed by Interstellar spacecraft and space probes on a daily, weekly, monthly, yearly, once a decade, once a century.

Level and we wouldn't have any idea. Like we wouldn't know if aliens were actually just flying by earth right now. And we just didn't, we just weren't detecting them. And 

I was just saying, we only invented the radio not too long ago, 

and that ends up being a lot of the the science of these questions is coming to understand that, we're just a really young civilization in a pretty young and average planet.

Around a pretty average star located in the outer suburbs of a pretty ordinary Milky Way galaxy. And that, humanity is, on the order of a few 10, 000 years old. Certainly our level of technology for, space travel is like less than a century old. And our planet is about four and a half billion years old in a 14 billion year old universe.

And that the James Webb space telescope in the last couple of years is on an almost daily basis. It's transforming our understanding of the universe's size, scale, scope, and formation. And it has detected galaxies and stars that began to form as little as 300 million years ago. After the beginning of the universe.

And one of the weirdest aspects of this is the possibility that, again, life could be very common across the history of the universe and intelligent life common across the history of the universe. And that we are functionally alone right now. That, you could have had a billion year civilization.

Something that was far more advanced than anything we could possibly imagine. That could have risen and fallen. Perhaps a couple that have risen and fallen over the course of a billion years. across the history of the universe that we have still missed by several billion years. That came and went before our solar system ever began to, gather out of dust in the first place.

Ben: I really got that sense from the book that, that what, there was so much that we don't understand and we've only just Beginning to glimpse and the way you explain it is really well is that sort of my own, I hadn't thought about it too much, but I essentially the probability that there is some sort of intelligent life out there seems to have really risen amongst people who look like it.

People would say maybe 80, 90 percent chance this is true, whether they visited Earth is much smaller, but not zero. That was the interesting thing that maybe 1 percent or something above 0, 1 to 5 percent over some time, like not necessarily when humans have been about, like you say, what, would that be your sense of the probabilities?

And then I'm interested in exploring something you mentioned, which is a sort of segue, which is another theme through the book, these elements of conspiracy and also where governments or actually any organizations, but governments are really bad. Dealing with things that they don't that they know they don't know the machinery of government seems to be Really bad with dealing with uncertainty and conspiracies.

I guess are a sort of adjacency to that we see but is that my sense of where the probabilities have got to and what do you think about how Governments have essentially tried to cover up what they don't know, but it seems to be almost like an incompetence. We don't want to be seen not to know type of thing rather than anything malicious.

Garrett: Absolutely. There are three questions there that I will try to answer in turn. One being the probabilities across the universe. The second being the the government cover up. And then the third being the adjacent conspiracies. So the yes, I think The Easiest way to think about this is we're just too new to really have any understanding of what the likelihood of life around us could be or intelligent life around us could be and when the SETI field started spread.

Spread. 1950s, 1960s, the, one of the pioneers in that Frank Drake came up with this what is now probably the most famous equation in SETI, which is called the Drake equation. And it lays out the variables of calculating how many planets are, how many planets there are, how many.

What percentage of those planets might be habitable? What percentage of those? Planets that are habitable, does life develop, what percentage of planets that are habitable, where life developed, does intelligent life develop and on. But the most important variable in the equation is what scientists call L, the length of time an intelligent civilization exists.

And L is the whole ball game, which is. If the length of time of an intelligent civilization is in the tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of years, then we are functionally alone in the universe. If L is a million or hundreds of millions or a billion years, our universe might team with life.

If you look at humanity as a as your test case we're in that tens of thousands of range and there are a lot of reasons looking around the world, right where we are in the winter of 2024 to think that like humanity probably doesn't get another 10, 000 years. Like we, We might not get like another 150 or 200 years based on, the trajectory of, climate change and AI and technology and nuclear war and, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

There's also a big part of that equation, by the way, that is also it's not just how long a civilization lasts, but how long a civilization lasts that remains curious about its place in the universe. There's a sort of dark dystopian path in the years ahead for Earth where Humanity survives, but is, effectively so poisoned by a combination of misinformation and A.

I. And societal collapse that we just lose interest in exploring whether there's life out there in the rest of the universe. So that's the answer to the first question. So then you get to this question of. Is the government covering up its knowledge of extraterrestrials?

And I think that there's a lot of evidence to believe that the U. S. Government or governments anywhere in the world really are not covering up meaningful knowledge of extraterrestrials or what people intelligences. And, my most basic reasoning for that is I've covered national security for 20 years.

I come at this not as a lifelong ufologist who grew up on Star Trek and the X Files and read sci fi novels. I come at this as someone whose, previous books are about the Cold war and cyber security and counterterrorism and american presidency and you know I doubt government conspiracies mostly because They presuppose a level of competence, strategy, and forethought that is not on display in the rest of the work that government bureaucracies tend to do on a day to day basis.

And, I'm happy to talk more about that if you want. But that is not to say, though, that the government is not covering up It's knowledge and understanding of UFOs. The U S government governments all around the world are absolutely covering up their knowledge of UFOs. It's just not there for the reasons that people generally think part of this is there are two very obvious cloaks of secrecy that surround a lot of this subject.

One is what the, a lot of what the public thinks are UFOs. Are the government's own secret test projects. A huge percentage of public UFO sightings in the 1950s were the U2 spy plane which was a UFO. It was a, if you were a commercial pilot flying across the United States and you looked up and saw the U2 above you.

It was a plane that didn't look like anything that we knew planes to look like it, that flying at an altitude that planes were not known to fly and flying at speeds. Planes were not known to fly in the decades since you've had the same experience with the SR 71, the a 12 ox cart, the stealth fighter, the stealth bomber, and all of that stuff is still going on today.

You've got new secret drone projects. The U. S. government's, U. S. Air Force's new generation B 21 stealth bomber just had its inaugural flight test in November. These programs are still going on, and the government doesn't really tell us what they all are. Now, there's a second layer of this, which is, it's not just our government.

Some chunk of these UFO sightings are advanced adversary technology being tested against us. That's Chinese drones, Russian drones, Iranian drones. There's a lot to those technologies that we do not currently understand. About our adversaries capabilities. And one of the things that the Pentagon has talked about is in its renewed effort to understand UFOs and, what the government now calls UAPs, unidentified anomalous phenomenon.

It identified a heretofore unknown. Transmedium Chinese drone, which is to say a Chinese drone that came out of the water and transitioned to flight, which was a technology that the U. S. government did not understand that China possessed. The government gets real squirrely talking about what its sensors And radars and surveillance networks detect and don't detect and what it understands about those adversary technologies.

So big, some sizable percentage of our, what the public thinks are UFOs, the U S government may have a better understanding of, in terms of what a, what might be, revolutionary. Technologies around You know our adversaries so then you get to the last part of your question which is the conspiracies around the government cover up.

And this was actually to me one of the biggest surprises of the book, which is, as you mentioned when you were introducing me. The book before this for me was my previous book was a history of Watergate and the scandal around Richard Nixon's presidency in the 1970s. And in a very weird way, the second half of this book on UFOs ends up being a sequel to a book about Watergate, because what it ends up being about is a The collapse of trust in government institutions, the collapse in faith in institutions, the collapse of agreed upon trust and truth that the U.

S. in particular, but societies around the world, underwent in the wake of the Pentagon Papers, Vietnam, Watergate, the Church Committee, the Pike Committee. And this recognition, the government can lie to you. And where you see that actually first take place in the U S in our politics is in the 1970s and eighties around UFOs.

And there is this series of revelations and conspiracies in the 1980s, some self proclaimed whistleblowers coming forward and some, quote unquote new evidence about things like the Roswell crash that come forward in the 1970s and 80s. that plant for the first time the idea of what we would now call and recognize as the deep state in the American political tradition.

This shadowy cabal of, professional government operatives working at cross purposes with elected officials and the American public, that there's like a hidden government inside our hidden government and that they this idea first exists in the context of UFOs in the 1980s.

The, those figures in some cases go on to become the founding members of the far right. conservative fringe in the 1980s and 1990s, including very specifically one guy named Bill Cooper, who is one of these UFO whistleblowers in the 1980s. He says that he's a, intelligence officer who's seen evidence of, the government's dealings with alien civilizations goes on to become one of the nation's most popular, real far right fringe talk radio hosts of the 1990s, up there with with the Rush Limbaugh's of the country, helps to inspire through his conspiratorial view of the world.

Tim McVeigh, who goes on to bomb the Oklahoma City Federal Building and carry out, the worst domestic terror attack in U. S. history. And also inspires and becomes the mentor, really, to a young Austin, Texas public access host named Alex Jones. Alex Jones, of course, becomes the founder of the 9 11 conspiracy.

myths, what we now call 9 11 truthers and that it's really Alex Jones who carries this forward into a new generation and, picks up the idea of the deep state and really carries it forward into the Trump era. And in a very weird and twisted way that I think most Americans don't realize and I certainly didn't realize until I was working on researching this book, I think you don't get January 6th.

And the big lie and the attempt to steal the election without the foundation that was laid intellectually by the UFO conspiracies of the 1980s and 90s and that this really ends up being This weird journey through 40 years of American conspiracies. And yet ends up in something that really threatens, starts with UFOs and then, threatens to upend American democracy in 2020.

Ben: That's really where the truth just seems larger than the fiction. And that's one of the remarkable things I picked up on the book in that second half is this, the stories we tell ourselves are so important, the narratives to get to where we are and these events. And I was wondering, reflecting back on that thread that you get from Watergate to today through these conspiracy theories.

Theories of which aliens is a big chunk. Is that one of the lessons we need to take away from political scandals and Watergate and the like? That when we harm trust in government and trust in our institutions, it allows These conspiracies, these tailways of thinkings to occur, and then they have all of these second and third order effects, which are just really hard to go through because they're going on their own narratives and putting the two books and the works together.

It seems to me there's that and that it seems to recur at least in modern. History, we've had this little bit of recurrence and where we are in trust in government Therefore and trust in institutions is potentially a more important thing to be worried about is that one of your takeaways from watergate?

Or was that is there something else that I should pick up on?

Garrett: Yeah, I think you're right. I think that there's you know to me the shame of watergate the Is You know, the way that it has, it poisoned a generation of politics that followed and caused or at least accelerated that collapse of trust in government institutions.

I think part of the challenge also, when you get into the conspiracies around UFOs, coming back to, what is my working theory, which is that the government is not covering up meaningful knowledge of of contact with extraterrestrials or non human intelligences, NHIs. You addressed a little bit in your original question to me, which is, it's really hard for governments and bureaucracies to say, I don't know.

And, I think in many ways the government is just as puzzled about the reality of UFOs as anyone else. Now the government, for the reasons that we talked about, advanced technology tests. Advanced sensor systems. It knows more than the average public. But it doesn't know what all ufos are and across 80 years of history there has been a stubbornly small percentage of public UFO reports that also puzzle the government.

In the earlier days, that was about 20 percent of public sightings the government couldn't solve. Today, with better technology and better data, that number hovers closer to 2%, 5%. Of public UFO sightings that also puzzle the government. Those, of course, are the only, to me, interesting UFO sightings, are the ones that actually puzzle the government.

Humans are incredibly terrible witnesses. for UFOs. A vast percentage of UFO sightings are things like the planet Venus, which is just a really bright star in the night sky. Or, in the modern era, a lot of UFO sightings end up being starlink satellites, which are bright and array themselves in weird lines in the sky, in ways that, people get alarmed about when they see them.

But, we know what those are once, once they're reported and, can untangle them. So the question to me is always what are the things that actually puzzle the government? And, the Pentagon office that works on this right now says it's about 2 percent in the, in, in this particular moment.

But it's really hard for a bureaucracy, particularly in a country like the United States, where we spend, 60 billion a year on intelligence and, round numbers, a trillion dollars a year on national defense and homeland security, to come out and say, there's some weird stuff out there that we don't really know what it is, flying around in our airspace.

And, that's a really unsatisfying answer. And it's one that bureaucrats don't like to provide to their bosses. And I think the problem is that's actually the best answer, which is the government doesn't really know. And one of the pieces of evidence that I point to in the book is what, to me, was the moment that I got interested in writing this book, which is since 2017, there has been a radical shift in the way That people in Washington talk about UFOs and you have begun to see serious people talk seriously about UFOs.

And it began in 2017 with a series of blockbuster reports from the New York Times and Politico that both laid out the details of a. then unknown government UFO study program by the Pentagon, by the Defense Intelligence Agency. And then a series of puzzling encounters across many years by Navy fighter pilots, Navy aviators, who had encountered craft or objects that behaved in ways that they could not explain.

And that they did not believe the U. S. had technology to match. And that there was video that backed up those Navy pilots testimony that the Pentagon eventually released. There's a series of videos that are called the Tic Tac video and the gimbal and the FLIR. And on them, there are these objects that sort of move in weird ways or appear to move in weird ways.

And you began to see some congressional attention around this. It's actually an issue that has remained pretty bipartisan heavy in terms of getting attention from both panic from Democrats and Republicans in places like the Senate Intelligence Committee around trying to push the government towards greater levels of transparency about what it does know about UFOs.

And that there was a specific moment for me when, again, we began 2020, John Brennan gave an interview to a DC journalist named Tyler Cowen. John Brennan had just wrapped up the better part of a decade as President Obama's CIA Director and Homeland Security Advisor. He was a career intelligence officer.

I've covered him. I've interviewed him. He's a very serious guy. And he'd spent the better part of a decade atop the U. S. intelligence committee, or U. S. intelligence community. And he said in this very weird, tortured syntax, effectively, there's some weird stuff out there, we don't know what it is, and some might say that this phenomenon could constitute what some might recognize as a new form of life.

It's a really weird sentence. And also, to me, stuck out because I figured there can't be that many things that puzzle someone like John Brennan. Like, when John Brennan woke up in the morning as CIA director or White House Homeland Security advisor, Any question that occurred to him, there was a massive intelligence apparatus that would go out there and try to answer it.

Analysts and undercover operatives and intelligence officers and satellites and signals intelligence intercept networks. If John Brennan woke up and said, tell me what Ben had for breakfast. Last Tuesday, like there's probably a reporting system and surveillance system that could come up with what that answer is, by the end of the day.

And so if John Brennan is leaving office at the end of his entire career, at the end of these eight years as CIA director and Homeland Security advisor, and he's saying, man, this UFO thing, it's really puzzling and I don't know what it is. And I don't think we know what it is. That felt to me like something that was worth diving into and trying to better understand.

Ben: That's fascinating. 

When I put all of your work together, reading your books, one of the things which stood out about you then taking the 9 11 oral testimony was that was based on primary evidence, people's actual truths. And you were writing it. writing it down. And so that almost strikes us in comparison to some of these other conspiracy things as well.

And I was stuck in Manhattan over 9 11 and one of the things I remembered very much was the smell and the visceral feeling and you get that in a lot of the oral testimony. Do you see that as your work as a modern historian taking this? You looked at You've looked at government, you've looked at conspiracy, you've looked at this, and then you've also taken primary evidence and the truth.

Is there something that you think people might not appreciate around the oral testimony in 9 11 and how you see that in your overall work? 

Garrett: Yeah, it's a great question. The way that I talk about my work and the subjects that I write on books wise is that I mostly do near history. Things that are just old enough that they're not current events anymore and are slipping from memory into history, but are new enough that there's research that hasn't been mined, archives that haven't been mined and that is recent enough that, We probably misunderstand it.

A big part of my work is basically like returning to these things, 10, years later that have this, popular mythology built up around them and then trying to put together all that we have learned. Since that event, to better understand what that event actually was when it was happening.

Because, journalism is, as famously said, is, the rough first draft of history. But it generally gets things pretty wrong as more details come out. And that we better understand, motivations and and even in some cases, basic facts, only as documents are declassified or memoirs come out years later kind of thing.

And so I generally try to choose topics that have a Modern salience that and then tried to help us help use that history to explain why we are, why America is, why the world is the way that it is today based on our understanding of how this history went down. What drew me back to Watergate.

Was covering Donald Trump and covering the investigations around Donald Trump and, wondering what was it like the last time America confronted a corrupt and criminal president in office, and how did it work, and how did the system function, and what really happened in and around the White House as that was going on.

Which, we've really only come to understand Watergate really in the last 10 or 15 years. That the Watergate that Americans thought that they were living through in the 1970s turns out to be, just this like incredibly narrow slice of what was going on beneath the surface and the motivations and the personalities and the players who were involved in all of these events as they transpired.

Ben: Yeah, it's very hard to know when you're living in the moment or very near moment, what are the actual forces and truth around it. So my final kind of trio of questions then would be when you alluded to that is, do you have anything around your writing process that you'd like to share, whether it's either unique or just how you do it?

Are you a morning writer, afternoon writer? You obviously do a lot of deep research and it's interesting you're interested in this near history. But do you just, does it all just come out after the research? And as a segue to that, are there any current projects you'd want to, you'd want to hint at?

And the last one would be if you had any I guess it's life advice or writing advice around how people should think about the world or what you've learned in general. So writing process. Into into those final thoughts. 

Garrett: Yeah, so I try I generally try to describe my career as explanatory journalism which to me is really distinct from Like investigative journalism, like I am not someone who has a particular skill in you know sussing out the document that like no one has ever seen before or you know getting the testimony of some secret source that no one has ever talked to before.

The thing that I do is the like hoovering up of an enormous body of research and then trying to organize it and explain these events and stories and histories in, oh, the most clear and most comprehensive way that anyone has yet tried to do. And, that was really what my Watergate journey was, which is, here's a, story that is one of the most covered subjects of all time.

And yet it has been covered in all of these narrow slivers and individual memoirs or, time limited books. And, now let's collect all of that work over 50 years and tell the story. In a more comprehensive way and a more clear way than anyone has ever tried to do before. That was, in many ways the same thing I was trying to do with UFO, which is, here's a subject that has an enormous body of primary sources behind it, but that no one in a long time has tried to sit down and explain and organize in a Clear.

And I would like to think objective and open-minded way. You know that probably a lot. I think a lot of the challenge of the literature around UFOs is almost everyone comes to writing about it with a very clear agenda at the start. Either you are a total believer. And are writing something to convince others that aliens are visiting.

Or you're a total skeptic and are trying to write, a grand debunking. And, I think if people read the UFO book, what they'll see is, I'm not trying to do either. And I think that the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, that UFOs probably don't constitute alien visits, but aliens probably exist, and there is something real to UFOs that we don't know what it is, and the answers to which could end up being just as world transforming and Fascinating and revelatory As if the answer was aliens, that it, we could really see our understanding of the world transformed just by solving the mystery of UFOs.

Now I just finished actually my next book, which comes out in June of this year and will be published both in the U. S. and the U. K. In, in June, that is going back to my oral history work, and it is an oral history of D Day. And June 6th of course, is the 80th anniversary of D Day. And this is a moment when the generation of D Day veterans is really passing from the earth.

And this book tries to in a very classic me way,

capture This incredibly broad set of voices and participants in that day, American, British, Canadian, German, French Polish Norwegian Kiwis, Australians, all sorts of different perspectives of that day. And and tell that day in a very comprehensive and definitive way using the voices of the participants themselves.

So you can't quite see my office floor here, but I am surrounded by two foot tall stacks of D Day histories and memoirs and military reports. And it's about a hundred and fifty or two hundred books on my floor here. And I went through another couple thousand oral histories in archives in the U. S. and Canada and U. K. And the sort of final bit of your question about how I work is what I do is I take all of this research and then I write these like incredibly long first drafts and then basically, Over some period of time, really whittle them down to the essence of the story as best I can.

And so the D Day oral history. I started in August and September with a first draft that was about 1. 5 million words and then whittled it down to the, 166, 000 words that it will end up being published around. And went through that vast draft and ended up cutting, basically nine out of every 10 words out of the book to get it down to, the essence of the story as best I could.

Ben: That's amazing. So I very much look forward to that. So that will be mid this year, June, 2024 book on D Day. And a reminder, latest book also on UFOs. Book on Watergate and the oral history on 9 11, The Only Plane in the Sky. That was a really excellent conversation and I thank you very much.

Garrett: Absolutely a pleasure. Thanks so much for having me.

In Life, Politics, Science Tags Aliens, UFOs, Watergate, 9/11, Trust, Garrett Graff

David Ruebain: disability, protest movements, law, equality, inclusion, interdependence | Podcast

June 5, 2023 Ben Yeoh

David Ruebain is one of the most thoughtful thinkers I know on disability, equality and the law. He is currently a Pro-Vice Chancellor at the University of Sussex with strategic responsibility for Culture, Equality and Inclusion including dignity and respect. He is an adviser to the football premier league, the former director of legal policy at the equality and human rights commission and has been in the top 25 most influential disabled people in the UK. 

We chat on:

Social change seems to come about in a complex way. But peaceful protests seem to have had influence on some social topics. What is the importance of protest? In particular, thinking about the disability rights movement.

David gives insights into his role and view into the UK disability rights movement. The roles of agency and simplicity of message. The comparison with the climate protest movements. 

David’s work with the UK football premier league and also the equality commission. What types of policies are successful for equality and diversity. What challenges are structural and what that implies for solutions.

The role of interdependence and that means at the moment. Whether the law can deliver inclusion and what that means.

How ordinary talking about equality seems now vs the 1970s. But how it itself will not be enough for humanity. 

“Equality is what we all wanted in the seventies; for those of us who considered ourselves progressive. But now it feels fairly vanilla really as an idea. Equality is simply about level playing fields, with its sort of a zero sum game approach to if two people are in a race, nobody should be unfairly disadvantaged for any relevant consideration, which of course is true. It's sort of almost unarguable. But it isn't especially ambitious. … But if we are really to bring about the change which will ensure the survival of the species and other species, it will need more than equality, I think.” 

We end on David’s current projects and life advice.

“....do what you need to do to believe in yourself because so many of us don't or doubt ourselves. That doesn't mean to say-- I think first of all, that knowing there's nothing profoundly wrong with anyone, including whoever you are. But secondly, knowing that from that perspective you get to learn and evolve; it doesn't mean you say rigid in the position. So there's something the risk of sounding like a not very good therapist. There's something about really believing in yourself…”

Listen below (or wherever you listen to pods) or on video (above or on YouTube) and the transcript is below.

PODCAST INFO

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Transcript with David Ruebain (only lightly edited)

Ben (00:02):

Hey everyone. I am super excited to be speaking to David Ruebain. David is one of the most thoughtful thinkers I know on disability, equality, and the law. He's currently a pro vice chancellor at the University of Sussex with strategic responsibility for culture, equality, and inclusion, including dignity and respect. He is an advisor to the Football Premier League, the former director of Legal Policy at the Quality and Human Rights Commission, and has been in the top 25 most influential disabled people in the UK. David, welcome.

David (00:37):

Thanks very much, Ben. Thanks for having me.

Ben (00:40):

Social change seems to come about in a complex way, but peaceful protests seem to have had influence on some of these social topics. You were involved in the disability rights movement, particularly here in the UK, and protests seemed to be quite an important part of that movement. How important do you think is protesting social change movements and what other factors do you think go into this type of social change?

David (01:09):

I think it's tremendously important. I don't know that I can say it's necessary for every area of change; I don't know that. But it has certainly been critical in affecting significant areas of change, I would say over the centuries. And as you mentioned, I was heavily involved in the disability rights movement in the 1980s and 1990s. I saw firsthand really the kind of step changes that arose as a result of increasing activism. At one point, I was vice chair of the Rights Now campaign, which was at the time, a national coalition of organizations campaigning for civil rights for disabled people. I mean, perhaps I should say that the principle demands at the time were for a significant change, a step change in understanding and thinking about disability from one which is often called the medical model or charity model, which is about repair or rehabilitation or providing minimum standards of accommodation and finance and so on to one which sought to treat disabled people as equals and afford them legal rights as such in the way that had happened at that point to some extent, at least for women and for black and racially minoritized people.

Nowadays, I suspect we see that as being almost prosaic and ordinary. But at the time, it was quite a radical agenda to think of disability as a civil rights issue and not just a medical or a quasi medical issue. Disabled people themselves had began campaigning for it in a number of ways. But really, the change accelerated through activism, through demonstrations, occupations; various forms of civil disobedience. And the Rights Now campaign, to which I refer was what became an umbrella organization, was something like 80 or 90 civil society organizations, which collectively represented, I'm pretty sure over a million people. Because it included the trade unions local authorities, as well as disability organizations. One can debate and discuss the extent to which laws-- which is what was demanded. Laws came into effect because of that.

But I do remember that at the time, the initial response of government to a demand for civil rights legislation for disabled peoples was, "It's not necessary." And then after a couple of years, it became, "It might be useful, but it's too expensive." And then a few years later, it became, "It might be possible in some instances, but it will conflict with other legitimate rights." And then later on it became, "It's not a priority." And then eventually it was, "All right then." Nothing conceptually or intellectually had changed in those various stages. But to my mind, there is no doubt that the external pressure led to the eventual enactment of the Disability Discrimination Act 1995, which was the first piece of legislation. Now, I should say that some disabled people in their allies thought that that was insufficient. It is stronger now-- Current legislation is stronger than it was then. But to my mind, I thought it was a huge victory, really. And it was because conceptually, if nothing else, it placed disability as an issue of exclusion and underrepresentation as much as a medical or a private medical tragedy.

Ben (05:17):

And that first law, as you've alluded to, was not the final step. And in fact, arguably the journey is still ongoing. I guess hearing that, there's two things I reflect upon. One is, I guess what it's like being both parts of such a broad movement. And you look at some movements today, I'm interested in kind of the decentralization of leadership to some extent, or like multi collaboration between many kind of people and stakeholder groups of not necessarily a leader, but there always does seem to coalesce around certain figures. And I wondered how you think about that in terms of sort of structurally organization in terms of social movements. That also echoes into my question alongside that which is, the part of the kind of culture change piece, because the law obviously was a great step change.

But I reflect back listening to the stories and hearing things now. But this idea of a social model of disability or this idea that it's not all about the money or financialization. It's about making a more inclusive place that's sort of seemed to be the start of that movement as well. And that culture change piece, you can't really legislate for. I mean, you don't really legislate for either. It's in how people think. So I guess it's an interconnected one is with a broad social change movement in getting a lot of people and that decentralization and how do you think that goes, do you think that's part of the key for getting the broad culture change piece to go alongside the law?

David (06:55):

Yes, I do. I think if I understand your point, Ben, I think-- I mean, many more erudite people than me have written about power having to be taken, not given and related maxims like that. But I think that-- I mean, if we take the environmental crisis, which you and I have spoken about it and I know that you know a lot about it as well in terms of your work. I think many people will have strong views about the activities of extinction rebellion. Some are very supportive and others oppose their actions because of its disruptiveness. But it is very much-- and I don't try and say that I understand or know everything. [ ] I even think everything that happens is wrong. But it is based on quite a compelled theory of chain, how societies evolve and change by reaching a critical mass of activity.

And in reaching that critical mass of activity, a level of disruption is required. Now, of course, you can debate and dispute, "Where the line should be. Is there a line that there should be? Should we not disrupt certain things because it causes too many other problems, or it's too difficult?" And there are legitimate conversations to be had there. But I do think that there is merit, at the very least, in communal action. Because otherwise without that, then we're left with what to my mind seems to be very narrow models of democratic participation, which is basically either involvement in an established party and/or voting. But whether it's citizens assemblies, whether it's demonstrations, whether it's petitions or other forms of town hall meetings, other forms of activity; nonviolent direct action as well. It seems to me that that is a key characteristic of change and probably has been in every major change event over the centuries.

Ben (09:36):

Yeah. I think of-- What is it that quote? I think, is it Martha Luther King Jr. That the creative dedicated minority has always made the world better or some such like that. Yeah, I think you've convinced me. I flip-flopped on protest movements of where they are. We're particularly related to climate because it's so intersectional and broad. But I think you have raised in general my feeling about how these movements can do. And I think-- going back to my point, which I think you did get. I'm really interested in essentially, particularly in the climate movement, a real emphasis on a decentralized way or in some ways this is touching on inclusivity, but the fact that they don't put the power in a few people. I mean, they have leaders just by nature of the kind of charisma force of what those people are doing. But quite purposely, they don't want those same kind of power structures. And I think that's really interesting in spreading that. Although the flip side is then you've got some groups which will do things that other people don't agree with within the movement. So there are some downsides to it, but I think it's really interesting how broad that is and the kind of governance or non-governance structure of being decentralized.

David (10:48):

Yeah, and I mean, it raises-- I think communal activity is complicated. It doesn't lend itself to neat, straightforward, logical processes and outcomes. It's messy; kind of wide engagement is a messy process. But I think ultimately in a way, is it is its strength. So in the Rights Now campaign as I mentioned, we had 70, 80, 80 plus member organizations from disabled people's organizations, to parents organizations, to trades unions, political organizations, local authorities. And each of them had their own particularities around the issue and their own perspective. And probably if we had been interrogating them all, they would've said something slightly different. But it was essential that we were able to contain all of that. So our demands were very, very simple and deliberately so; rights not charity. We especially didn't go into a lot of detail about what that would mean for X, Y, or Z with a significant level of detail because at that point, we may not have maintained the cohesion of the collective.

And it was able to hold a range of diverse viewpoints because of the unifying central objective. That's a reason for a devolved model as you are describing. It's probably not the other one because I think people need to feel that they have agency. If things are too centralized or indeed hierarchical, you basically-- anybody who's not in the position of power is a foot soldier for want of a better phrase. It's very hard to maintain enthusiasm just as a foot soldier because you've got your own mind and your own thoughts and feelings and priorities and commitments. So I think in the long run those things don't work. And so even if you're just thinking of end goals, I think it's important to have a level of devolution and democracy really.

Ben (13:20):

So I'm hearing simplicity and agency; quite important ingredients in the movement. And reflecting maybe the last one on the kind of disability rights movement of that time. Were there other important steps or pieces of the puzzle that you'd articulate for anyone thinking around this? Whether you were targeting some key policy makers as well, or whether it was going in a way having a broad movement and then going kind of hand, hand combat to convince people or whether there was some other kind of tactical strategy in the movement that you felt was a key reason for success?

David (13:59):

Yeah, I mean, we had many advantages, if I'm honest. In the case of disability, even if you're not a disabled person-- and most people aren't... Disability is one of those identities which everybody can acquire. I mean, that itself is a whole other conversation about what is an identity and is it just a fact or is it a set of beliefs and whatever. But nonetheless, putting that to one side, anyone can become disabled. And indeed, if you live long enough, you probably will. Even if you're not-- thankfully nowadays most people have good contact with other disabled people or they may be family members or parents or companions or partners or coworkers or whatever. The idea of rights, not charity, was broken down into very simple evidential nuggets.

Like, "Why can't I live with my friend?" Or, "Why should my coworker not be able to get in the building?" It was probably slightly more elegantly put than those, but... They were kind of very simple moral imperatives, and that was coupled with... I think we were at a moment in time in a wider political sense, the kind of individualism and autonomy, which had been very much foregrounded by Margaret Thatcher and Thatcherism in the early 1980s. Had really begun to look very tired and offensive to some people. We'd been through the minor strike, we'd been through a heavy period of de-industrialization, and depending on how you think about it, a shift from a materials based industrial society to a much more knowledge based economy. I'm not saying that's right or wrong, but with that came tensions and destructions of communities and so on.

So there was a strong feeling increasingly widely held that foregrounding of individualism was wrong. And we'd seen the poll tax, which is a classic example of that, which is where-- For those listeners who were old enough will remember that it was all about everybody paying the same amount regardless of your income for council services. And there was such a visceral reaction against that because it was an ultimate individualistic rather than societal response to being in a community that it was ultimately rejected and finally brought down Margaret Thatcher. So the Rights Now campaign and Civil Rights for Disabled people rode those waves.

Also, the kind of longer arc of history about civil rights for black people and for women, as I mentioned and emerged in other issues for marginalized people. So there's very much. I think we were lucky, or I think we were of our time at that moment. 1991, George Bush not known for his kind of very liberal or progressive tendencies. Was it George Bush? Have I got that right? Anyway, whoever was the president in 1991 in America certainly was a Republican, passed the Americans with Disabilities Act four years ahead of the United Kingdom. We already had evidence of the fact that those voices which were saying that it's too costly, we can't afford it, disabled people don't need it, whatever, it was increasingly impossible for the change to be resisted. So I think there was a constellation and a conflation of a whole range of forces which allowed it to happen. I'm probably answering a completely different question at this point, but...

Ben (18:24):

No, I think that makes a lot of sense. So, I mean, one of the big pieces you highlighted was empathy. People could understand it.

David (18:31):

Yes.

Ben (18:31):

And then I think this really important moment in time or riding a wave, or maybe history comes in these kind of waves as you had if you go back a little while away, slavery, women's rights, black and minority rights coming through, and then the movement in the US. There's a little bit with that within climate and climate justice as well. But I do think one of the things that climate struggles with actually is this empathy piece, because it's more diffuse. It's a crisis which is pervasive and everywhere. And you can't ask that same question of your neighbor, particularly in rich nations, where actually it falls. It falls unequally not as badly in rich nations. But you can't ask for your friend who can't get access to a building or those very visceral why questions when it's desertification in Africa or this kind of diffuse.

So I think that is a key difference. But it is interesting here you also talking about a moment in time, because I do think the environment is seeing that somewhat. Perhaps pivoting a little bit to your work with the equality commission from there. My wider question here is that when I look at your work, there's a really strong thread of essentially evidence-based work, what actually might really work as opposed to, for instance, in corporate world, slightly different, I guess from academic and everyday place. But in corporate world, when I think about or I see corporate, culture, and diversity, a lot of it is just simply, I think your phrase is, "Let's just be a little bit nicer to one another." That's a kind of common sense culture thing is not really to do with diversity, inclusion, DNI, or culture or quality or all of those things which is kind of common sense. And then also there are some things which are contested and maybe don't really work or are not as clear as some other things. So I was wondering what kind of evidence-based work are you most attracted by and what did you learn in the equality commission? Is that where a lot of that came from?

David (20:36):

Yeah, I mean, it's a great question, Ben. But actually it's a really important question for me. Before I joined the Equality and Human Rights Commission, I was a lawyer; a litigator in private practice. I basically sued organizations who we were alleging had either discriminated or had treated an individual, my client unlawfully. It's actually great fun suing; it's really, really good fun. It's a bit like a task and finish group with a clear end point, and you either win or you lose. So if you like playing-- I don't wish to trivialize this in any way-- I don't mean this in that way. But if you like playing games and you want to win and you believe in the cause and you enjoy what you do, which luckily, I have always been able to do. You can try really hard for something and if you're successful, you are successful. And then you move on to the next case, and then the next case.

So it's a bit like having a fight with very clear rules sort of thing. Then there is an outcome, and hopefully you'll succeed. And often we did-- not always-- often we did. But what I found from that, and why I stopped practicing eventually was because the change was limited; were two things. The change was limited. If you were successful, you would afford a remedy to your client. If you were really successful, you would bring about wider change which would hopefully benefit some other people as well if it was a change in the law or in processes or approaches. But it was incremental and often you ended up taking similar cases time and time again.

The other thing is it became very-- If I was ever in any doubt, it became very clear to me from the outset that this wasn't about good versus evil at all. This was about a structural set of arrangements. So the organizations who were acting in ways which was disadvantaging the people that I was representing. Clearly they shouldn't have been, and I didn't want them to, but they weren't doing it out of malevolence. I don't rule that out. I'm not saying that nobody's malevolent; some people may well be malevolent. But in my experience, that's not the common approach. And increasingly, I was attracted by theoretical understandings of oppression as structural. So the work that I went to do at the Equality and Human Rights Commission, which was as director of legal policy, which was really about looking at levers for national change and then subsequently in my other work, has been about-- obviously behaviors are important and egregious behaviors of any sort should not be permitted.

But beyond that, what is the cause for the evidential data backed approach, which shows chronic areas of underrepresentation and disadvantage. We know a lot more about it than we ever did and we know what are the issues. And they are overarching these structural issues; some of which are cultural, some of which are legal, some of which are organizational. But it is that, which it's not necessarily easy to resolve, but it is very much about that in my view. And I think that interestingly, I'm lessened notwithstanding that-- I think civility and kindness and respect for everybody is important. I almost take that as a given in terms of what we've expected. And actually I'm looking at I think the challenging areas are these much bigger issues.

Ben (24:55):

Yeah, that's fair. So I'll come on to I guess institutional bias or institutional racism, whether it's conscious bias or not; and not just racism, there are other structural things. But maybe before that, I would be interested if in that time or your reflection over the past decades on, what do you think are the kind of policies or guidelines which work which are most effective now that we have a foundational kind of piece of law in place? You've got more knowledge and awareness, although it's still a journey coming through. Are there any particular policies, either at the organizational level or things we should be advocating or looking to that you think like, these are my experience, are some of the most effective to looking at this area?

David (25:47):

I'll give you a couple of examples. So for large organizations, in Britain, the law requires that they publish annually in a certain format their gender pay gap, which is the mean, and I think sometimes median pay for men and women and the gap there in. And then there's a level of details sometimes which also has to be published. And that is really interesting because first of all, the gender pay gap is what it's not about is paying men and women different amounts for doing the same job. That would be straightforwardly unlawful. That would be what's called positive. That would be what's called direct discrimination and straightforwardly unlawful. What it is the average pay for men and the average pay for women and what that reaches for are issues of occupational segregation.

So it's a hierarchical organization, what's the distribution-- broadly speaking, it turns out to be about distribution between men and women in different grades. So if there is a gender pay gap, it's because there are many drivers. It's not only this, but often it's because women tend to do the more lower pay jobs than men than more higher pay jobs. But then there are particularities which are different in different organizations. What you can find. So the gender pay gap is an indicator to something, but it isn't, in my view, an end in itself. It's an indicator to possible structural issues. Why are all the people at C-suite level men, if they are? That's a structural issue probably. I mean, there may be also. I have to be [inaudible 00:27:48] egregious behaviors like sexual harassment and so on as well, which will play a part. But even if there wasn't, there would still be structural issues.

But actually it's possible to have a zero gender pay gap and for there still to be structural issues. So you could have a complex organization like a university where if you look at the mean or medium pay for men and women, you end up at roughly the same, so there's no pay gap. But there are maybe pockets of university activity where there are no women or no men for whatever reason. What I learned from that is in seeking to drive forward culture change and advanced equality, diversity and inclusion, there isn't really no... You can say, "We want to have proportionate numbers of men and women or black and or racially marginalized people and white people according to the populations or disabled people, which is roughly running at 15%," you can say that. And they will be useful indicators, but they're not the end point if the end point is really about full inclusion. I don't think any of us really know exactly what that would look like. I think it's a journey that we're on.

But the other example I would give, because you ask about successful initiative. I say that because I trying to point to the complexities I think of some of this work. But at the Premier League, we've instigated something called a premier league equality, diversity, and inclusion standard. Well, the Premier League has instigated that. That's a requirement of all clubs who wish to play in the Premier League. So obviously all clubs are going to do this because they're not going to refuse to be in the Premier League because they don't want to do it. It's a systemic change program that all clubs have to participate in, which requires collection of qualitative and quantitative data, effective analysis, and a production of an action plan. It's a standard approach for systemic change work.

And what we've seen is significant change over the years in not only the representation of marginalized people in football clubs-- I'm not so much talking about players themselves, although that's also an issue. But broader staff, fan bases, community activity, things like that. But also amazing initiatives that they do which in my view is sort of leading other sectors. If you would've asked me 10 years ago, "Would I think football could lead other sectors in inclusion?" I would've thought, "I think it's unlikely." But in many respects it is in terms of what organizations like football clubs could do within their communities and to be inclusive. That's very much process based, but I think it works.

Ben (00:31:09):

Yeah. That's really fascinating. And in your comments is kind of oblique critique of why quotas might not necessarily work because it's not to do with the structural, the process; and it's to do with the system. So one individual thing may not happen to work. I mean, there might be other arguments for and against, but a blunt quota may not get at a systems problem. Whereas at least if you start to do some of these things about understanding where the situation is and some of the causal roots and all of this, you might engender some of that change. And you kind of preempted my question about your experience on football in the Premier League. So perhaps I'll ask it wider about what do you think of organizations, which is not necessarily any their "fault" or an individual fault of how these behaviors and things have come about.

But there are claims particularly in the UK, but I think it applies to quite a lot of organizations where you look at this in the US or even in Europe around institutional bias, either racism or things like that. And then issues around that and changing that. I think in the UK particularly, there's-- Well, across a lot of things, but there's a renewed focus on the London police force. So I was wondering reflections on how that's happened over time. And again, perhaps a little bit what we can do for-- Your example in the UK, football's actually quite a good example of actually something which is steadily improved and probably much more than people would've predicted 10 years ago, which I think is kind of a hopeful point.

But there is still quite a lot of debate around that. So I'd be interested in all your reflections on that. And what we will do, particularly when maybe some of it is you could argue on the kind of unconscious bias part, and then some of it just seems to be behaviors which have built up over a long period of organizational time. So you don't really-- in fact, it's probably unfair to pin it on any one particular person. And it's a layering on layering of leadership over time. Some UK organizations seem to be particularly stuck with this as a challenge.

David (00:33:32):

Yeah, really interesting points, Ben. There's a couple of things I want to pick up. Well, first of all, you are right that more and more, I understand the issues to be structural and therefore not much less about end point change, which you might argue, is what something like a quota is. However, I actually do think there's a lot of merit in arguing for quotas. I mean, quotas in many instances is currently unlawful in UK law at least. So it's very difficult to operate lawfully if that's what you want to do. But the reason why I say it can be important is because culture is so contingent on things like dominant ideologies-- and group think and atmospheres and so on.

And if you have cultures which are relatively homogenous, which I suspect is part of the issue with the metropolitan police, although I don't know-- firsthand, I certainly don't know. Then they tend to replicate themselves and allow for some of these horrible, egregious things or create spaces for these horrible and egregious things to happen. And conversely, they mitigate against the idea of a sense of belonging for a wider group of people. One way of improving centers of belonging, which can in term disrupt hegemons and dominant cultures and make things more diverse and sort of embed diversity as an empirical experience, not just about numbers of people. One way of doing it is by having quotas. By saying, "We are underrepresented in this area, so we are just going to have a large number of these people coming in."

And of course, again, that's likely to be unlawful. We don't have positive discrimination in this country except for the asymmetric categories of disability, funny enough, and also marriage and civil partnership. It's very difficult to do that. There are some things you can do, which organizations are experimenting in terms of group higher work. But really belonging, in my view, is something which has become more and more understood in recent years for cultures. And if you are going to engender a sense of belonging for everybody, you're going to have to address homogeneity. So the argument for diversity is well understood and well made even from a bottom line argument; the general argument that heterogeneous organizations do better than homogeneous organizations, almost self-evident. But actually there are more subtle ways in which it's important, which is around-- Well, I'm probably repeating myself here; where if you have diverse groups, you are able to better people individually feel safer and more themselves and therefore are able to thrive.

Ben (00:36:59):

And, and for someone like the police force, you want to feel that the police force is a reflection of you and your society.

David (00:37:06):

Of course.

Ben (00:37:06):

I couldn't help but think that if your police force was 50/50-- let's put it the other way. More extremely. If it was 60 40 women and say 40, 50% made of minorities and conglomerate. I would find it really difficult to believe that you wouldn't via that just structure be quite different from where you are today. And maybe it's because you couldn't repeat what you had before within that. So I do take that point. And I have seen-- For instance, there's a decent amount of corporates organizations where you may not have that quota as the outcome, but they're looking at, for instance, balanced and diverse shortlists for whatever that you are looking for.

So even though, like in senior management, yes, you're still expecting it to be men, but if you're looking at a short list of six people, you need to really ensure that three are women and you've got some diversity in there because if your shortlist is only six men, you're never going to get there because of that. And particularly at the shortlist stage with all of those types of things. I was really interested also maybe picking up on some of that because we kind of touched on it, on your thoughts on the kind of inclusion piece. Because equality or a lot of equality law is kind of all-around about fairness. And to some degree there's this kind of-- you've described it as a zero sum game within some of that.

I look at some of it where you are kind of saying, "Oh, is someone worth an hour of work on this, or can you do that or not?" It's still very much within a market structure, not necessarily with this inclusion piece. And then I think also of my own experience-- So I'm going to put another 'I' word here. Maybe you can reflect on a kind of interdependency and the fact that we as humans, and actually all of the world is very interdependent on so many things, whether it's natural or physical or in humans relationships being social creatures. I have a little story or an anecdote about what I see in a kind of area, which is called music therapy, which I'm sure you'll know about. But where this therapist who's a musician essentially enables music to come out of another person; often a disabled person, but not always sometimes someone with a lot of other needs.

And what's really unique about this from a creative perspective and even a philosophical perspective, is that the musician is the enabler. The piece doesn't work without the two of them or without the group. But actually, the primary creation of the music or the creative act is not from the musician, it's from the therapist is often from the other person or the group. But it doesn't work without the two of them. It's only an independent piece of work. It's put often in the therapy world, but I see it as often really beautiful creative acts of the level of that you see on any other creative works. And I often think about that in terms of independence and how actually that's closer to how humans are and how we actually work in the real world. In any event, bringing it around was like your thoughts about how things have changed or your view on this inclusion piece which has now talked a lot about alongside equality and things like that and how it is actually maybe another step in terms of thinking about society change or culture and where we might be heading.

David (00:40:54):

Well, I have to say, I think interdependence is having its moment and I'm delighted about that, Ben. Not for all the reasons that you say, but also others. In fact, I have been working on this myself in various talks that I've been giving recently and in my inaugural professorial lecture last year. If I may, I just might look back to an earlier part of our conversation. I mentioned that one of the reasons why I stopped practicing as a lawyer and moved into strategy and policy work and then into higher education doing that, is because it felt to me that the law had its limitations, certainly as a litigator. I think more generally the law is-- In a recent lecture I gave, I tested this rhetorical question of, "Can the law deliver inclusion?" In short, my answer is it's a necessary but not sufficient condition to have good laws.

And the reason for that is the law can impact on errors of public life, but it's ability to transform more fundamentally is very limited. So very crudely it can tell an employer that it can or cannot take certain approaches as to who it hires and how it deals with its employees. But it can't say anything to you and I about who we have relationships with or who we invite for dinner or anything like that. And nor should it, by the way, in my view. Beyond the law, I think we need to put attention strategically on relationships. When I say strategically, I don't mean just relationships or things that happen or don't happen depending on circumstance.

I think we need to look at that as a tool of liberation-- relationships as a tool of liberation and political change. And profoundly, that is because of as you say, the concept of interdependence. Because as much as anything else, the narrative certainly of sort of 20th, 21st century western societies is of independence. This idea that we should all be able to manage on our own and be on our own, maybe with some the exception of having families. But otherwise, that's it. It's contrary to other cultures, and I'm very mindful of ideas of Ubuntu in Africa. This philosophical concept of I am because you are, and therefore the fact of relationship or community being the essence of my sense of myself. John Donne wrote about, "No Man Is an island." Many artists and philosophers and writers have explored it.

But I think it's coming to its own because more and more people are reacting against this idea of independence. Interdependence in my view, is also not the same as dependence, which is very one way. And it's also different from co-dependence, which seems to be a kind of therapeutic type of where two people with mutually connecting sets of distresses are reliant upon each other. So it is important. I'm not trying to be tricksy in this, but it's important to kind of think about what it means. And I think also that it is-- Disabled people talk a lot about interdependence because they have always been characterized as being unhealthfully dependent whereas the reality is we are all dependent and ideally interdependent. More and more I feel that it is the key to systemic and structural change.

Ben (00:45:02):

I think it also goes beyond or alongside this movement and the human piece to a couple of other areas that we've talked on tangentially, but I see, which is around climate and actually around business and the world. So we've got to a state-- and I think we were always in this state-- but where organizations and business just rely not just dependently on supply chains and things, which is there, but there is an interdependence around all of this. We've seen this for some of the geopolitical tensions and where we've seen businesses and organizations almost at this meta-level expression. It's very obvious within climate that we are very dependent and actually have interdependence on much to do with the environment. And then you see it in the micro with pets, for instance. So not just within human relationships.

And there's the kind of a growing understanding on that with other sentient beings. So interdependence, I really do see as it having its moment, and actually it's trickling around of our understanding of so many complex systems with that. And to your point, you have cultures within Africa, you've had artists. I think I listened to a talk where you spoke about dharma and Buddhist concepts of this as well. So, I do think there's something really interesting on that and we will have to see where that goes.

David (00:46:32):

Yes. I'm sort of quite excited about it. So many people are talking about it at the moment, and it feels like, again, it has its moment. Just one other thing about equality. Equality is what we all wanted in the seventies; for those of us who considered ourselves progressive. But now it feels fairly vanilla really as an idea. Equality is simply about level playing fields, with its sort of a zero sum game approach to if two people are in a race, nobody should be unfairly disadvantaged for any relevant consideration, which of course is true. It's sort of almost unarguable. But it isn't especially ambitious. And I have to say, I think, looping back to how we started this conversation with these major meta global existential challenges like climate change, whatever your perspective about likelihood of resolution or not, it is probably one of the most significant problems the world is facing, if not the most significant problem. I don't think concepts of equality are sufficient to try and really address, philosophically at least. I mean, they have their place for sure, not least in the way that you mentioned earlier, the disproportionate impacts on different populations and countries around the world in part dependent on their wealth. And so there are relevant considerations of equality there. But if we are really to bring about the change which will ensure the survival of the species and other species, it will need more than equality, I think.

Ben (00:48:21):

Yeah. I agree. But I also do think it's really interesting about how vanilla equality is. I don't think anyone really argues against, for instance, equality of opportunity. It's the mainstream like 95%. I would even say up to 99, but you've always got a minority strangeness somewhere of that. And that wasn't the case in the seventies. There was a live debate around it, and-- if you want to call it the progressive movement, I won that argument. So it is no longer a progressive idea; it's now a mainstream idea, which is kind of in the name of how you progress along. And I see this as a continuation. That's why I'm very interested in these social change movements, because these are human constructs.

Laws are only important to humans. They're not important, at least first order to the trees or the dogs, except for where humans interact with the trees and the dogs. And we've had that from, as we've mentioned, slavery to women's rights to minority, equality and things. And then, "Well, where does this go next? And these other things; some inclusion, interdependency, some of these other things, which I think is really fascinating. Obviously in the moment you don't really know where it's going, and in the moment you're also in the minority. So in the seventies, equality was a progressive idea. In the1900, 1890, women's equality was a progressive idea. In 1800, lack of slavery was a progressive idea. So it's kind of really interesting, I think, how that social progress happened.

Perhaps just one final little section then with something which I know you've sort of been involved in and has been the university level, which we probably should touch on; again, which is a bit intersectional of this. So one is some of the debates around-- I guess they're calling it the freedom of speech thing and the other with identity which you mentioned right at the beginning. The debates around how much is a construct, what is the construct, and where we are, which is quite fluid at the moment versus where it is. And I think that's interesting as well, because it wasn't so much in the seventies, the topic that people would've come across and has now progressed there.

And you've done a lot of work within academic circles and those sort of systems. I think people who just read the sort of media reports or aren't really actively involved or see this often get a kind of-- not a very broad view of what's really happening. So I'd be interested to see from where you are how you are feeling around a lot of the debates around identity and free speech. I mean, a lot of it seems to me sort of common sense and people just asking for reasonable things and we're working on getting those right. But there's some other things there.

David (00:51:13):

Yeah. I mean, certainly for universities-- especially for universities, freedom of speech is critical, really. The idea that we can interrogate and test concepts and ideas howsoever, and follow the evidence, even if we end up making a mistake or saying the wrong thing, it's critical. There are obviously laws which limit freedom of speech, whether it's around hate speech or harassment or defamation or matters to do with property rights; contract laws and who owns intellectual property and thing. So there are a variety of laws where-- It's not true to say that free speech is absolute, but free speech is certainly tremendously important. And I think we're in we're in a time, not just in this country, but in many countries where those concepts are colliding with a particular sense that many people have about the essentialness of their identities or whatever those identities are.

And I think it's very interesting, very complicated and very difficult to resolve. So if I take one example, I'm a disabled person, so I identify as a disabled person and there is an objective reality to me being a disabled person, but it is also constructed. So somebody with my particular impairment, my medical condition in a different time and space and different world wouldn't have the identity of disability that I have at the moment, even though I might have the same impairment. So there's a complex mix of the essential and the inessential where one is talking about identity. And that plays out and crashes against ideas of freedom of speech, particularly where the speech appears to profoundly undermine the identity. The challenge for us all who are working in this area is to navigate that; to navigate that in a way which doesn't compromise either the importance of freedom of speech, because without that in a university environment, we are really denuded. So it is an essential element to it, but also doesn't compromise our emotional and evidential understanding of people's individual sense of themselves and what matters.

Squaring that circle is not easy. I think it's possible. I say that even though I may not have all of the answers at all. But I think we have to square that circle, and I think we can, because I do come at this issue like I do with all issues from the perspective that there's no fundamental conflict between only two groups of humans. Of course there is actual conflict-- some of it is horrible over the centuries as we've seen. But I don't think in terms of the essentialness of humans, I don't think that there's any real conflict. And so we have to navigate a way through all of this he says loosely, but nonetheless, relevantly.

Ben (00:54:48):

Not with all the answers, but we're on a journey on that. And that sounds quite hopeful as well. So maybe last couple of questions here would be, what are your projects or thoughts that you are working on? Obviously, this interdependency, you had this lecture which you can listen to on YouTube on whether law provides inclusion, although we've given the punchline already; so necessary but not sufficient. But other current projects and thoughts you'd like to share?

David (00:55:24):

I mean, there's lots we're doing at Sussex and also at the Premier League. But I think probably-- And this is true I think for many of my colleagues in other universities and other sectors as well, I think that there are big challenges around what we mean by identity, what is essential, what is not essential. But profoundly how people can keep a sense of themselves, their sense of belonging and safety, even in environments which may feel like it's critiquing something, which is profound for them. That's probably one of the major more trickier issues for universities, certainly at the moment in terms of EDI and culture work. There are chronic areas of underrepresentation for which I think there are solutions. And underrepresentation is a signifier for other things. But there are chronic areas of underrepresentation which for certain groups which there are still-- if I could just give you one example.

British Caribbean heritage colleagues, they are considerably underrepresented. And I think that there are really complex issues of structural issues of race and class which need to be unpicked and addressed in many areas. And there are broader issues of belonging, which I think if we're able to tackle that-- and they're probably complimentary to tackling the other areas of underrepresentation which are important to address. And then there are legacy issues; what I call legacy issues. Ones where in many ways the arguments have been won, but we are still not getting it right. They're still stupid access issues for disabled people. So we're not arguing about the principles here anymore. We're arguing about having still not worked through all the changes we need to operationalize, if I can put it that way.

And then there are these much more ephemeral issues about what does good culture look like beyond EDI work. I think we can probably all imagine what it would-- We all want to belong, we all want to feel that we're operating in a collegiate environment. We all want to be supported by and support our colleagues. Again, often these things reach for interdependence issues. We all-- whether in a work environment, we all want to feel safe, we all want to feel productive and meaningful, we want to feel that we're having meaningful work and meaningful lives. Maybe I'll stop there because there's a lot to think about.

Ben (00:58:33):

Yeah, I'll pick up on the legacy issues. I think that's really true. I guess in the business world, they call it implementation or execution. We won the principles, but actually, it's getting it in place. I see that a lot in special education needs where there's a lot of things which you now have a right to in law, but cannot actually access it. A lot of it comes down to Maverick money, but that's also intersectional structures or resources and all other things.

David (00:59:02):

Yeah, I remember that.

Ben (00:59:03):

And then actually some legacy is also legacy of history, whether that's empire and all of those things as well. But to your first point as well, I would put a lot of that emphasis on this challenge of agency or having feeling agency, which is intertwined with identity. And I will swear again into the climate thing because where on the crisis where you feel you lose agency, where you feel you can't do anything, you stop doing something and therefore you then lose. Actually kind of almost ironically. Whether you were going to win or not in the first place is almost beyond the point. If you don't think you have any agency, you are not even referring back to an early part of the conversation; not that it is, but you're not in the game. If you don't think you're going to win the race, you are almost never going to race it. Even if you aren't going to actually win the race, it kind of doesn't matter. You have to have the sense of agency and whether that's within identity and all of that. I feel that's a really important piece.

I get a little bit worried meeting some young people who either through climate anxiety or an identity thing have feel that they've lost their agency because they lose it through one of those pieces. And then I think you've got all of these other problems which occur kind of unnecessarily, as in, I understand why this has come about, but it doesn't need to be that case. And so that's something which I think is quite important.

Perhaps reflecting on that, the final question would be, do you have any thoughts on general life advice? So advice for people who are thinking about social change movements or are in law or are worried about rights or things like that. So it can be kind of on career journey or something like that, or life advice in terms of how you live your life, either as a minority or just as a person going through that you reflected on in your years of wisdom.

David (01:01:09):

Well, it would almost feel impertinent for me to give advice to people. I'll do my best, Ben, but can I just say one... I just want to underscore your point about-- I really don't think that we can underestimate the current impact of the legacy issues of things like slavery and colonialism and how they... I mean, we may think, "Well, of course we abolished slavery, whatever it was, 200 years ago or something. And we had colonies for 50 years or more." But the consequences of that in the way they play out in thinking and organizational design, although they have been unpicked to a considerable degree, are still prevalent. And I think that's part of the explanation for ongoing racism, basically. So I completely endorse that point.

It's very difficult to give-- Everybody is an in individual and I know that for me, I never really had a career plan other than just I found the things that interested me and I just went at it really as much as I could. I was lucky enough or fortuitous enough to be able to do things, to be born at the time I was born, and therefore able to pick up on a zeitgeist, which interested me. So it was a lucky combination of events in my own circumstances. But I do think relationships-- not to sound too pedestrian about this. I do think relationships are important; having relationships, trusting relationships beyond families is what I mean as well-- what Armistead Maupin calls your logical family, not just your biological family.

I think that it's trite to talk about working harder and things like that so I'm not going to. But I am going to say things like, do what you need to do to believe in yourself because so many of us don't or doubt ourselves. That doesn't mean to say-- I think first of all, that knowing there's nothing profoundly wrong with anyone, including whoever you are. But secondly, knowing that from that perspective you get to learn and evolve; it doesn't mean you say rigid in the position. So there's something the risk of sounding like a not very good therapist. There's something about really believing in yourself, I do think, because in every case where somebody doesn't believe or like themselves, it's not true.

Ben (01:04:49):

That seems really good advice to me. So believing and backing yourself-- and I think your first point is choose your friends or make sure you have relationships beyond your family and have established them and invested in them. So with that, great advice, David. Thank you very much.

David (01:05:15):

Thanks, Ben. Thanks. I really enjoyed it as ever.

In Arts, Life, Podcast, Politics Tags David Ruebain, Disability, diversity, protest, law

Jennifer Doleac: crime, policing, policy | Podcast

May 8, 2023 Ben Yeoh

Jennifer Doleac studies the economics of crime and discrimination. In July 2023, Jenn will join Arnold Ventures as the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice.  She also hosts her own podcast:   Probable Causation, a podcast about law, economics, and crime. Her twitter is here.

We chat about trends and causes of crime. How guns, drugs and policing interact with crime trends.

…there was this huge increase in violent crime in particular in the late early eighties, early nineties. And suddenly violent crime started falling dramatically in the mid-1990s. We still aren't entirely sure why that is the case, this big mystery in the economics of crime world. But we do know that basically crime has been falling since then until very recently. So during the pandemic and since the pandemic, we've seen this big uptick in homicide and shootings, at least in the US. Again, we're not entirely sure why that change. It's kind of like trying to describe what's going on in the stock market. There are lots of sort of little blips and everything, and you can have big picture understanding of the economy and what drives growth, but not be able to predict fluctuations in the stock market. So it's similar with crime rates

But overall, we're still in a place where homicide rates and violent crime rates are much lower than they were in the early to mid-nineties. So overall things have gotten much safer, especially in our big cities; we're much safer. But of course, as you said, there's a lot of variation place to place; particular neighborhoods, particular communities, they're the brunt of a lot of violent crime that is still going on. So it's a major public safety or major public problem and concern for policymakers in particular places and that has become more of a focus in recent years as homicides and shootings have gone up, which of course we're not used to after this big decline for decades

What we know of policies that work on reducing crime, and how challenging the recent uptick in crime statistics is to ideas on reforming criminal justice.

We discuss alternatives to jail, and what type of interventions can work on crime, such as sentencing for misdemeanors, and access to healthcare. 

Jenn explains why the “broken window” theory of crime has not really held up. The mixed studies on body cameras and how deterrents (like DNA databases and CCTV) seem to work.

Jenn discusses her work suggesting some policies have had unintended consequences related to “ban the box” (where employers are not allowed to know of former convictions on initial job application), and related to her paper on the Moral Hazard of Lifesaving Innovations: Naloxone Access and Opioid Abuse (which has proved controversial in some quarters).

We play overrated/underrated on: Texas, diversity and universal basic income.

We end on Jenn’s current projects and life advice. Transcript below and video above or on YouTube. Listen below (or wherever you listen to pods).


PODCAST INFO

  • Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3gJTSuo

  • Spotify: https://sptfy.com/benyeoh

  • Anchor: https://anchor.fm/benjamin-yeoh

Transcript: Jennifer Doleac with Ben Yeoh (only lightly edited)

Ben Hey everyone. I'm super excited to be speaking to Jennifer Doleac. Jen is about to join Arnold Ventures as head of their work on criminal justice, and I think she does amazing work bringing the economist mindset to challenges related to criminal justice, poverty, and discrimination. She hosts her own podcast, At Probable Causation. Jen, welcome.

Jennifer Hello. Thanks for having me.

Ben (00:27) 

So let's start with crime. When I've looked at the crime data, it occurred to me it's not exactly clear what the trends have been in all different types of crime, or why. My personal reading is it does look like long-term trends over the last 40, 50 years for violent crime seems to be down, and for overall crime as well looks broadly down both in the UK and the US and other rich nations. But there's quite a lot of flux and quite a lot of regional or city differences. And then in more recent years, the trend in crime in anything in the US looks like it might have ticked up. It looks like it might have ticked up in a couple of other places as well, although, again, unflux and unstable in some other nations. So my first question then is what do you think the trends in crime are? And maybe you can cut it in ways which you think are helpful as in violent crime, non-violent crime, crime in cities and cutting it away from the long term and the short term.

Jennifer (01:32) 

Yeah, I mean, I think those long term and short term pictures you just painted are really the main stories when we think about where we are in terms of public safety. So there was this huge increase in violent crime in particular in the late early eighties, early nineties. And suddenly violent crime started falling dramatically in the mid-1990s. We still aren't entirely sure why that is the case, this big mystery in the economics of crime world. But we do know that basically crime has been falling since then until very recently. So during the pandemic and since the pandemic, we've seen this big uptick in homicide and shootings, at least in the US. Again, we're not entirely sure why that change. It's kind of like trying to describe what's going on in the stock market. There are lots of sort of little blips and everything, and you can have big picture understanding of the economy and what drives growth, but not be able to predict fluctuations in the stock market. So it's similar with crime rates.

But overall, we're still in a place where homicide rates and violent crime rates are much lower than they were in the early to mid-nineties. So overall things have gotten much safer, especially in our big cities; we're much safer. But of course, as you said, there's a lot of variation place to place; particular neighborhoods, particular communities, they're the brunt of a lot of violent crime that is still going on. So it's a major public safety or major public problem and concern for policymakers in particular places and that has become more of a focus in recent years as homicides and shootings have gone up, which of course we're not used to after this big decline for decades.

Ben (03:26)

So when I was reading the literature, I was surprised by that observation and the comment that you make is that there isn't that much agreement as to the why on these trends, and the why for the down and the why for the up which is very perplexing, which I guess is one of the reasons why maybe the person in the street has kind of misunderstood what the trends were and certainly misunderstood as to what they were. I guess my thought is what are your best theories of why it was down and maybe why it has come up? What are your top two or three best kind of causal explanations for it?

Jennifer (04:05)

Yeah. So there have been a lot of studies trying to nail down what happened, especially with that nineties decline. All kinds of theories have been thrown around. There was a lot that was changing about criminal justice policy during that period in response to the rising crime rates. We increased incarceration, we increased policing. We know independently that both of those things reduce crime. And so it seems reasonable that we put a lot more police on the street, we lock up people for a long time, maybe that helps to reduce crime. Again, in general that is true, but that doesn't seem to explain what happened in the nineties and why we saw this big decline in crime in the nineties. Other theories out there are removing lead from gasoline and cars. So if you remove lead exposure about 20 years earlier, then those kids who would've been exposed to high lead levels grow up and are less violent, less likely to get themselves into trouble. So maybe we see crime decline for that reason.

Others have suggested that it's a similar story, but abortion legalization. So really like explanations all over the map. My hunch about the nineties is that it's honestly just a mix of a whole bunch of different stuff. I think the lead hypothesis is somewhat compelling, although we, again, whether it could explain the whole decline feels like a bit of a stretch to me. We also were benefiting during that period from a big investment in anti-poverty programs in the sixties, seventies, eighties, and having those kids grow up and have better opportunities surely reduced criminal involvement. So my best explanation is very unsatisfying, I think it was a lot of things in the nineties. For the more recent uptick, again, as you said, we don't really understand what's going on here. I really thought and I think said on some podcasts early on in the pandemic that my guess was it was a lot of everybody is inside, you don't have as many eyes on the street. So there's this Jane Jacobs urban researcher story that basically if you just have more people around who can be eyes on the street, then everything is safer. You've got potential witnesses and so on.

And so suddenly during the pandemic we're not all out and about anymore. So taking the eyes off the street means that people who want to go and cause trouble can without any consequences. So I sort of was hoping, at least, that was a temporary change and you saw an increase in homicides and shootings, but then that would all decline when we started moving around again. It didn't. And so that suggests we're at a new equilibrium almost, so things just shifted. And in addition to a lot of people buying more guns at the beginning of the pandemic, seems like there are just more access to guns. Maybe we got to a point where everyone just has more guns and also there are sort of cycles of retribution if it's gang violence and so on. So we seem to be in a new equilibrium in a lot of cities where gun violence is just higher than it was pre pandemic. So we're going to need to actually do something about it which is harder.

I think all of that said, I mean, what makes me optimistic as a researcher is I think we're much better at figuring out what to do about these problems than we are at explaining why we are in this situation to begin with. So we don't necessarily need to understand why crime is higher now in order to figure out what works to reduce crime. So that is helpful. We don't need to fully under-- Of course, understanding root causes can help us come up with ideas about what to do, but it's not necessary.

Ben (07:50)

Yeah, that's a really good point. So empirically we can do things that you know. So the pollution thing, improving neighborhoods, we might talk about some of this access to healthcare, some of the jobs, cognitive behavior therapy; a lot of things that have been shown to work. I guess speaking from here in the UK and Europe, one thing Europeans can't get their heads around is the whole gun issue. I guess as you've raised it, it seems to European people that guns must be a really big answer to it. I guess this is a little bit contested in the US. From your reading of it, what is the intersection of the whole gun issue and is it a case that because this is all a minority or quite a large minority who own a load of guns and there seems to have been a tipping point in certain communities or regions or zones, like you say, with intersection or with poverty or the environment and communities and it spills over. There also seems to be some intersection with mental health because you've seen mental resilience issues also spark up. So you put some of these small factors together and like you say, you're getting one and one and one at one equals like this really big thing. I'll be interested in your views from that and explaining it to us here in Europe and the UK where we just don't quite understand the issue around guns.

Jennifer (09:16) 

Yeah, I think a lot of people in the US don't really understand either why we're in this situation. A lot of people believe very strongly in Second Amendment rights to be able to own guns. So that makes meaningful gun control just very difficult politically to implement. And so I often think of conversations about gun laws as being a little bit of a distraction if we're focused on like what policies can we implement to actually change things because it's just going to set off; it's just going to cause lots of fights. But all that said, I think one challenge here and the reason it's not sort of an immediate one-to-one, like someone buys a gun and we see crime go up. I think that there are lots of law abiding people who buy guns. One big challenge is that a lot of those guns get stolen. So I've actually been having a lot of conversations with people recently including police officers who say like they know-- I live in Texas-- You see a pickup truck in a parking lot, they could guarantee you there's a rifle in the back of that pickup truck. Thieves know that too. And so you wind up seeing a lot of guns stolen out of cars. A lot of people just store their guns in cars and they're not locked up. So it's interesting, I've just been having a lot of conversations about like, "Maybe we could get policies passed about having to lock up your guns when they're in the car."

So there are some places like that where you could imagine some sort of interventions that just try to keep the guns in the hands of the law abiding citizens rather than the people who are stealing them. But otherwise, it's a much bigger conversation. Surely if we implemented really meaningful gun control, I think the best evidence shows that that would dramatically reduce violent crime. There is uncertainty there, of course. These studies aren't perfect. We don't randomly pass these laws, they're really contentious. We can have a much longer conversation with the literature there. But I think in my mind the big question is whether we're actually going to do it, and it seems very unlikely to me, so I don't spend a whole lot of time talking about it.

Ben (11:33)

So the economic case is clear, but the political world is not. In some ways that's a little bit like carbon tax, although carbon tax is probably more contested. Most economists, I think some ridiculous number like 80 or 90% of economists think carbon tax is the answer. “We do that, we price the externality, what's the problem people?” And then all of the political economy people are going, "Well, in a democracy it doesn't quite work like this." So that's another example, but it's quite interesting on that. We mentioned guns. I guess the other two big ones on there are kind of drugs and poverty with some of these intersections. I was really interested in the drugs one. Mostly I was reading the stats on alcohol in particular which seems to be true across-- Well, I only looked at European nations and the US. But something like alcohol was involved in between 30 to 50% of violent crimes, 30 to 50% of murders across all of these nations, whether you're Scandinavia, continental Europe, UK or the US, which was really amazing; domestic violence. So all of these violent ones. Obviously that's kind of legal drug, but then the second order on drugs and things. So it seems to me that people think that the link of alcohol is pretty causal. Would you agree, and I guess are there some policies that we can do or think around that, or is that again tricky because of people on the other side law abiding and the rights to alcohol and things like that?

Jennifer (13:05)

Yeah, the evidence on that is very strong. Alcohol is really bad. Occasionally, some reporter will write up a story about, like, "Imagine there was a drug that we knew increased violent crime by X percent and had all these terrible outcomes, and we heavily regulate or make illegal all kinds of substances that because we were worried about the criminal effect. And then they reveal at the end what we're talking about alcohol, which is obviously quite legal and easily available.” So there are policies out there, a lot of which are contributing or allowing these studies to figure out what's the effect of alcohol on crime. Taxing alcohol; so increasing alcohol taxes tends to reduce violent crime.

Something I've been really interested in and most of my own work is on how to help people reintegrate into society after a conviction or time in prison. So I spend a lot of time thinking about the kind of reducing recidivism piece. There are a bunch of studies of this program called 24/7 Sobriety, which was started in South Dakota and is now expanding to some other states where they frame it as basically like if you are engaged in crime that is alcohol involved, you essentially lose your license to drink. And so as part of this program, you have to basically come into the local jail and breathe into a breathalyzer at random several times a week, or actually wear one of those bracelets that measures your blood alcohol content. The idea is if you are caught drinking, then you are immediately put in jail for a night or two.

So it's basically a hundred percent certainty of getting caught if you drink, but a very light sentence or a very light consequence. And basically they dramatically reduce the amount of drinking that people are doing. Also, most of these policies are targeted at people who have DUIs; driving under the influence offenses. But they also see reductions in domestic violence and they actually see reductions in mortality down the road. So it just has big benefits. I think as you said, if we were thinking we could just ban drinking in general in order to reduce crime, I think that's a political non-starter. Lots of people see lots of benefits to drinking and enjoy it. But I think it does raise questions of if we trust people for the most part to do this responsibly, perhaps we could trust people to do other things responsibly and then punish the violations of that rather than banning the substance outright. But finding ways to discourage it would certainly help public safety benefits.

Ben (16:07)

Sure. That makes a lot of sense. But it's kind of interesting because-- I guess it's slightly mixed, but I tend to read that a lot of people think the war on drugs though hasn't been particularly helpful or at least have had pros and cons. So strangely, the alcohol thing we kind of agree on that. But then on these other ones, the side effects of the war driving crime into the black markets and things, with an economist mindset, again, not sure it's politically palatable. But that seems to have gone the other way. Is that also kind of your reading? It's a little bit more contended I guess.

Jennifer (16:43) 

With the war on drugs?

Ben (16:44)

Yeah, with the war on drugs.

Jennifer (16:45)

I mean, obviously in the US, we're in the middle of a big experiment about legalizing marijuana, the easiest of the drugs to legalize. In general, yes, my read is that the war on drugs has not been particularly successful, has created black markets, has increased crime in other ways. All of that said, there are a lot of drugs that do have really negative externalities in econ terms. If using substances only affected you, then perhaps we'd all be okay with everybody just making their own decisions if we assume you have full information and everything else. But knowing that a lot of drug use does have the possibility of really negatively harming people around you-- as we just discussed alcohol does-- then there's an incentive for the government to regulate it. And so the question just what that regulation looks like is complete criminalization and throwing the book at you and putting you in prison for a long time. Is that the best way to handle it? Probably not. So I think in general we're in the middle of finding a middle ground and finding ways to back off this thinking that we can just convict and incarcerate our way out of people using drugs. But we haven't found the best solution yet.

Ben (18:07)

Sure. So there's going to be a lot of good, natural design experiments coming up now with all of this.

Jennifer (18:12)

Let's hope so.

Ben (18:15)

Which is a good segue into I think one of the papers I read on your work, or it might have been your work sort of looking at this, which was looking at misdemeanors and particularly sort of small offenses and how harshly you come under judgment and things like that. The work kind of basically suggested-- I'm going to say it in real lay terms-- But if you were kind of given strong warnings for small offenses and you weren't put into the system, the chances are it was better for you in terms of then not getting into system or re-offending and that type of thing. So that's one possible policy that could work. And actually there seemed to be some natural experiments would support that would also help sort of the fact that prisons are really expensive. So that type of thing. Is that a true reading and how certain do you still feel of that idea on that work now?

Jennifer (19:13)

Yeah, I think there's growing evidence that we've been, especially in the US again, very concerned for a long time about mass incarceration and the effect that really long prison sentences have on people and then communities. And this idea that locking people up then makes it really difficult for them to get a job later and everything else. There's more and more evidence that really seems to show it's not the incarceration that seems to be doing most of the damage, it's the initial conviction. So if you put anything on someone's criminal record; that initial misdemeanor, even an arrest honestly can often show up. But let's just imagine here for the sake of argument, it's a misdemeanor conviction, a felony conviction. A lot of people who are convicted of these crimes never go to prison but still have a very difficult time then finding a job, keeping a job if they had one, finding housing. These records are permanent. It's public record that you have this kind of record probably for good reason. We don't want the government to just convict and incarcerate whoever without telling us.

But this all means that giving someone a criminal record is really costly over the long term. So I think the evidence in general, my read of it is that we've gone too far basically in how easily and quickly we give out criminal records and we should be airing toward leniency, especially for first time offenders. So that research you mention with Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey when we were working with Suffolk County in Massachusetts where Boston's located. We basically had a really nice natural experiment where non-violent misdemeanor cases; stuff like disorderly conduct and minor drug possession and shoplifting are essentially randomly assigned to different district attorneys who decide in this first court hearing whether to just drop the case, it's not worth the government's time, or to move it forward and let a colleague take it and pursue it.

We found that if you get lucky and get one of these lenient prosecutors that drops the case, you're 50% less likely to show up back in court again with a new charge. So it actually dramatically reduces recidivism. There's other work showing something similar with felony defendants. If you kind of put them on probation and then wipe the charges off if they successfully complete probation, similarly, about 50% are less likely to come back. So the way I often describe it to people is like, especially these first time offenders when they come into court, they're really at a fork in the road and you can either give them a conviction and pull them into the system, or you can just send them on their way and hope that this initial contact was enough of a wakeup call and they'll kind of figure it out themselves. And it turns out for a lot of people, they would. That is enough of a wakeup call and they would course correct without the conviction and punishment that the court system would implement.

And so knowing that, that just all strikes me as meaning that we are currently over convicting and over prosecuting, and we should just pull back a little bit and let people course correct on their own. Doesn't mean no punishment, doesn't mean like decriminalize these offenses or don't arrest them, but we don't need to be convicting people and throwing the book at people for everything.

Ben (22:34) 

First time offenses, particularly more minor offenses, although even felonies. And it does seem to be true outside of the US as well. What I like about what I was reading is, like you say, it's replicated across a different couple of areas. The numbers are also quite big. It's not one of those where you've got just a five or 10% could be kind of within forecast era. So essentially replicated. And also the causal model just really rings true. Interviews I've read, there are some people-- Yes, there will obviously be some bad apples or not. But some people will say, "Yeah, this was a wakeup call, I changed my life. This was not the person I wanted to be." So it makes a lot of sense. My view generally is that I find policymakers tend to be open to economists. There might be political constraints which mean it's not practical. Do you feel this is something that policymakers have potentially been able to pick up and maybe the politics of wanting to be seen to be hard on crime means that it's not possible? There has been a little bit of take up. I mean, where do you think we are with this policy?

Jennifer (23:43)

So one of my favorite things about working on criminal justice policy broadly is that there's just really broad bipartisan consensus that our current criminal justice system is not working very well. Incarceration rates are too high. It is helpful here that incarceration is so expensive. So even if it's just like small government conservatives are worried about spending lots of money on a field program, incarceration is a great example. So that means that there are a huge number of people of all political stripes that are interested in what the evidence says about how to fix things. And on most of these topics, there isn't a left and right policy yet. That's probably because most of this is state local and the federal government doesn't get involved as much. So it becomes less fodder for cable news, which is great.

I think all of that said, one challenge in the current conversation about whether prosecutors should be airing turn leniency is in the US, we've been having this conversation about progressive prosecutors. So they've been the ones really pushing policies like this. A lot of them have been elected around the same time that the pandemic happened and you see this increase in homicides. So it has become a very hot political issue whether these progressive prosecutor policies are what are causing the rise in homicide. My read of the evidence is that that is absolutely not happening. But there are variations in policies across places. Maybe there's some places where contributed, who knows? But it is at least an easy story to tell.

So I think that is sort of a one short term blip in this conversation about, "Could we go easier on defendants, especially first time defendants?" But I'm quite confident that over the longer term it'll get a lot of traction. There are a lot of policy makers in the space that honestly just are trying to figure out how to make things work well. Their courts are overwhelmed and crime rates are always a concern. So if they have a policy that is this effective-- And again, we're talking here about just like airing more turn leniency. It's not like everybody gets one crime free or something. It's not a totally guarantee of leniency.

Ben (26:07)

And it's cheap.

Jennifer (26:11)

Exactly. It's cheaper than the status quo and you get less crime. It feels like this should be an easy sell. So everyone I talk to gets it. It seems intuitive. And I suspect these sorts of changes are happening. They're just a little bit-- They're not advertising them and it's not the sort of thing you want to get into a fight on cable news about. But I think a lot of offices are paying attention to the evidence and using it accordingly.

Ben (26:46) 

Sure. That makes sense. That also brings to mind the question that Tyler Cowen asked, and I think you kind of part answered, which was with this recent uptick in crimes. “Does this mean the end for criminal justice reform?” And I think your answer was, "Well, it's a blip, but hopefully over the longer term actually because we don't quite understand why there's this uptake, but we do know things which would make it go back down. Regardless, we should still be pressing ahead." But yeah, that's his question. Does this mean a criminal justice reformance is harder and has it even kind of stopped making any headway?

Jennifer (27:24) 

I know that a lot of people, especially early in the pandemic when we saw homicide first start to rise, a lot of people in policy circles were really freaking out about this; that this was going to be the end of the criminal justice reform movement. The idea being that a lot of people are very open to the idea of reform when they feel safe, but as soon as they feel like their personal safety is threatened or the safety of their kids or their friends is threatened, then forget it, lock everybody up. So I think this just requires us to be more deliberate in our... It's going to be a harder conversation and already it is a somewhat harder conversation. Something that I have noticed is that often you see almost like the right left divide almost becomes like the left, only wants to focus on the fact that the criminal justice system can be very unfair and inefficient and racially biased. But they don't want to acknowledge that there's a real public safety problem.

And then the right is only focused on rising homicide rates and doesn't want to acknowledge the inefficiencies and inequities in the system. And obviously both of these things are problems. We can fix the system and make it more efficient and more fair and lower crime and make people safer. And it seems like we have to do both of those things. But it has been interesting, I think, the political dialogue around whether we acknowledge that crime is increasing has seemed a bit contentious. I think part of it is because there are some folks that worry that if we acknowledge that homicide is increasing and that there are cities that are less safe now than they were four or five years ago, then somehow people won't be supportive of reform anymore. And I, in my personal view is you have to acknowledge the facts on the ground in order to have a productive conversation.

Ben (29:29) 

Yeah. I call it the kind of walk and chew gum problem. You definitely can do both. Maybe not that exactly, maybe it's a little bit harder than walking and chewing gum. Actually, we have the same arguments here in the UK on our health system where it's obvious if you don't really tackle it from a left right perspective, that it actually needs more money and more investment and it needs to be more efficient. Those two things are actually both true. It's really inefficient, and I guess generally the right leaning would say, "Oh, but we've got to make it more efficient. We are wasting money," and all of that, which is true. But it also needs capital investment and needs investment in human capital of this. So it needs more money as well. You can walk into government. You need to do both if you're going to do that. And actually probably most things are like that. So maybe thinking about it...

Jennifer (30:21):

One other quick thought on that. One thing that I do hope that we've learned from this experience in the nineties where we saw a big uptick in violent crime then, and we responded by putting everyone in prison for a really long time and just basically-- I mean, mass incarceration was our response. We've learned since that that's not a cost effective policy. So jail and prison can keep actively dangerous people off the streets for a certain period of time. That is genuinely helpful. But it has zero or close to zero deterrent effect on long-term behavior. People do not respond to the knowledge of a long sentence. They respond to the probability of getting caught.

This is all the same. We've learned a lot since the nineties about what works and what doesn't. And so my hope is genuinely that this time around if-- I mean, already it seems like crime rates are leveling off. So hopefully we don't get into this kind of situation. But if crime were to continue to rise and it continues to be a major public policy issue, my genuine hope is that we will respond smarter this time and actually use everything we learned over the past several decades to do this better and achieve more public safety in a smarter, more cost effective, more fair way.

Ben (31:48):

I'm hopeful. I'm always a kind of cautiously optimistic person though on a lot of these things.

Jennifer (31:54):

Same.

Ben (31:54):

Maybe thinking about some of these other win-wins or the intersectionality. I mentioned healthcare because I think it was in a couple of your review articles that access to healthcare helps reduce crime. And actually, I do a lot of work in health and this is one of the things I think people really miss, is this intersection. There's a lot of intersection with social care and all of these other things. But I'm saying, "Well, yes, access to healthcare will help life expectancy if you want your health KPIs." But you get a lot of these other side benefits. And the one particularly in poor areas, and particularly now with the mental health one on crime seems to be absolutely massive. And particularly if you then try and put it in dollar terms, you're getting huge returns to the system, which don't go into the standard health economic ones because they're not interdisciplinary enough, which is one of my real bug bears around how specialized most economists have gone.

I said, "Well, you make this health economy argument, but you've missed two or three of the really big wins, which is if your crime goes down and then you try and put a value on that, you've just blown out 10 times.” So I was wondering how strong do you think that access to healthcare element still is. Maybe talk about that. And the three other ones if you wanted to comment on them as well, which I thought were really interesting, were improving neighborhoods because people like nice streets, it tends to be a win for the community, seems to also reduce crime; a little bit more niche, but these ones on summer jobs. And then also for certain people are kind of essentially cognitive behavior therapy. But therapy for people who could spiral downwards. Again, relatively cheap interventions seems to be win-wins. Be interested in how you've reflect on that sort of literature and that intersectionality of these-- I guess these are kind of non-police other win-win ways of reducing crime, which kind of seem to work. And I kind of feel that there would be, or there is support for. Am I right here?

Jennifer (33:50):

Yeah. I spend a lot of my time talking about interventions like this when I talk to policymakers. Basically when I get invited to talk now, it's all about how to reduce violent crime. I'll start with the criminal justice interventions because we do know some stuff works; like putting more police on the streets works, putting cameras everywhere works, stuff like that. But if for whatever reason you want to know about what else you could do, there's a lot of other stuff you could do. So healthcare is, I think the one I've become most bullish on. There are a lot of really nice studies now showing that increasing access to healthcare through programs like Medicaid which is available to lower income residents in the US. So there've been recent expansions that have especially expanded Medicaid to low income childless men which is exactly the group that you might worry would be engaged in crime. And those all show big reductions in crime rates.

The exact channel is still a little up in the air. It could be an increase in mental health care, it could be an increase in substance use treatment. Of course, those things can heavily interact and intersect. It could be just the reduction in financial stress that might lead to more drinking or something like that. So people are still working out the exact mechanisms. But there's this one amazing paper by Alicia Yakima where she has data from South Carolina on who's on Medicaid as kids, and then sees basically if you have Medicaid as a kid, it's just much easier to be on Medicaid as a child. Then once you're an adult-- They kick off most people at age 19.

So she can see what happens to everyone at age 19. She just sees like at age 19 for young men that are kicked off, suddenly just a huge increase in incarceration rates; almost immediate, you can see it in the graph. They're all just locked up. And that is driven entirely or almost entirely by young men who were having medication for mental health issues covered by Medicaid. And so basically they lose that medication and almost immediately are locked up in our criminal justice system. And it's just like, "God, what a waste of money, of time, of..." This is such a burden on these kids. It's just such a cheap intervention when you think about it that way; healthcare. So there's more and more evidence coming out like that.

I talk to some people sometimes and they're like, "Yeah, I mean, anyone who looks at this system and has any interaction with this population knows immediately healthcare matters.” I always like to say, "But now we have the research so it's useful. Not everything that seems obvious to us when we look at it firsthand actually is borne out by the data; this one is.” So there's more and more really strong causal evidence that increasing access to healthcare reduces crime and reduces recidivism. I kind of put cognitive behavioral therapy in a similar bucket, although there it's obviously CBT can be useful for people that don't have what we traditionally diagnose as a mental illness. But the story around CBT and the kinds of programs that have been tested are more around like changing the scripts that we all have in our heads about how social interactions will go. And that is perhaps more beneficial to people who live in neighborhoods where you have to interact with some people in some way and then sort of change your interactions to interact with other people.

So for those of us that live in safe, affluent neighborhoods, you sort of defer to authority or if anybody gives you a hard time; if someone mugging you on the street, you hand over your wallet and know that there'll be a cop around the corner. If a cop pushes back on you and tells you to do what you're told, you do it. But kids that are growing up in higher crime neighborhoods might learn over time that they need to stand up for themselves and push back if they're threatened in the neighborhood because that's the only way they survive. And then of course, if they do the same thing with a cop, there could be terrible consequences. So when you have to do that sort of script shifting across different places that is just much more cognitively taxing. So these CBT programs basically push everybody to just slow down and think about what is the story you have in your mind about how this interaction is going to go and just make a more deliberate choice about how you're going to respond, and don't respond with your immediate impulse.

I hope I didn't butcher that program too much to anyone who's listening who studies these programs intensely, but I think that's the general idea. And they've been shown to be really effective when they're introduced with kids in schools, high risk kids in schools, and even tested in juvenile detention centers. You see big reductions in recidivism going forward. I often joke with folks that if we just gave everyone a therapist-- I mean, truly everyone a therapist, I think we'd all be better off and we'd see a lot of social returns. But especially if you give people that are at high risk for mental illness and for emotional trauma that comes from violence and living in rough neighborhoods and everything else, if we gave all of them a therapist, I think we'd see big reductions in crime and other sorts of social ills. So it seems like a really good investment.

Ben (39:17):

That's one of my left field ideas for AI therapy. I think there's some evidence that AI chatbots are okay. They're not as good as an in-person therapist, but they're better than nothing; at least for overall therapy. So obviously not proved here. So if they become very cheap and everyone has them on their phone and there's a little bit of a push, then maybe they can give us the positive stories that we need. The last one on that was the improving neighborhoods. Is that strong on built in environment. Are you positive on that one as well?

Jennifer (39:47):

Yeah. I would say in general there's some suggestive evidence on this. I think, again, the channel here is a little unclear. I saw something recently saying that maybe part of it could be that police spend more time in nicer neighborhoods there would be like green vacant lots or whatever. So it's actually the police presence that's doing this. So I think we still need to figure this out. But there are some neat studies. There's one where they looked at neighborhoods where there was some sort of moth or something that was eating all the leaves on the trees and killing trees of certain types, but not other types. So it was like this random shock to where the trees were. They saw what happened to violent crime in the places where these moths susceptible trees to the ones that that were okay. And they saw crime go up in the places where the trees all died.

So it's sort of like these neat where it's like, "Oh, so it could be the tree." Even there, we also have evidence that increasing temperatures increases crime or increasing pollution or reducing air quality seems to increase crime. So it could be trees also help with air quality. They help cool everything down, there's shade. So is it really the greenery or is it the shade or is it the better air quality or is it the cops who like to hang out where there are nice trees? Who knows? But there is a good amount of evidence on this. And there are a whole bunch of criminologists in particular that are really interested in just the connection between our built environment and how we behave in that environment. So there are other psychological mechanisms that are potentially at play and that we just behave better in certain types of places than others.

Ben (41:32):

Yeah. There definitely does seem to be a link with a built environment. But as you say, it's complex and actually may not even hold from one location to another location, even with the same physical makeup. The one I see here in London, although I think they might have run out money because I don't see it as much so often, but we have fly tip zones. Do you call them the same thing in the states where people dump their rubbish and they're not meant to dump them there? You occasionally get these hotspot places where people just dump all of their old fridges or toys and stuff. They are often ugly corners of the street anyway. Local councils did efforts like they cleared them up and then they dumped them again. But they cleared them up and then they planted plants and made it look really nice. Then actually people decided not to fly tip there anymore because it's kind of like, "Oh, we wouldn't want to spoil it." I think maybe it just moved it to other places so I'm not sure the point there. But at least those were no longer fly tip.

Jennifer (42:38):

But it improved that neighborhood.

Ben (42:39):

And maybe I think the idea at least in that then if it's then you have to go so far enough that you can't fly tip on your street, then you do what you're meant to do, which is just call up the local council and then they come and take it away.

Jennifer (42:52):

It increases the cost of the alternative.

Ben (42:55):

Yeah. That's exactly right.

Jennifer (42:58):

I mean, this is in some ways a bit of a theory behind broken windows which was really hot in the nineties, which is this idea that if we really track down on low level offenses and quality of life offenses, like littering or dumping your trash on a street corner or breaking windows which is where the name came from, then everybody notices that this neighborhood is now being cared for and people are paying attention to it. And so then they will stop behaving in criminal ways. So this again, was hot in the nineties. A lot of people thought that implementation of these broken window strategies and policing was a reason that crime declined so much in the nineties.

We now know it doesn't seem to have contributed, doesn't seem to explain why crimes fell so much in places like New York where it was especially important. But this basic idea that if you take care of a place and lots of people seem to be paying attention and there's like a neighborhood watch or something like that, then it does seem intuitive that people are going to be less likely to do things that would disrupt that place. So might generally be deterred from committing crime in that place if they feel like people are paying attention to it. The question is how to actually implement that? It doesn't mean we need to arrest everybody and throw them in prison for 10 years. It can mean lower level consequences or it could mean plants and flowers can deter people from dumping their trash there. There might be other ways. But I think the basic point is that sometimes it's low level investments can have big payoffs.

Ben (44:50):

Yeah. And I think, like you said, it's probably an intersection of a few things. So community policing or being aware in your community and your neighborhood being good. More aware, police more likely to be walking on the beat and all of those other types of things. I was interested in your views on what alternatives to jail else we could do. So like you said, there's kind of just letting people off for minor misdemeanors, but there seemed to be some evidence that some of these other alternatives to jail also work in a kind of win-win because jail is really expensive.

Jennifer (45:25):

Yeah. So I've become really interested in electronic monitoring as an alternative to especially short jail and prison sentences. So in the US we often use electronic monitoring as a supplement to community supervision. So if we're going to let you out pretrial or we're going to put you on probation, then maybe we'll add electronic monitoring so we can keep track of where you are and we'll get notified if you leave your house and you're not supposed to. Increasing supervision doesn't seem as helpful. But as an alternative to locking you up, we now have a lot of evidence from other countries that do this routinely that it's really beneficial and seems to reduce recidivism quite dramatically. Some of that seems to come from reducing the destruction that jail and prison can have. You'll see you're able to continue working, continue spending time with your family, maybe going to school. It also could reduce the negative effects you might get from spending time in prison with other people that are criminally active. So those sort of negative peer effects can be reduced if we just put you on electronic monitoring and send you home. 

There's one recent paper that just came out from someone who's on the economics job market this year; Roman Rivera. And he's finding similar effects in the US, that using electronic monitoring as a substitute for incarceration seems beneficial. So that's the first evidence we have in the US which has been a major hold up with policymakers because everyone's like, "Well, we're not Australia, we're not the UK, we're not France. So it's totally different here." It turns out it's not totally different; it works the same way here. So that's really promising and it feels to me for various reasons we might not want to just let everyone that we're currently sending to prison out. We might not even want to let everyone who's on the margin of going to prison out. But it could at least make it more politically palatable to reduce our reliance on incarceration and has the big benefit of actually dramatically reducing recidivism. And like we were talking about earlier, it's also cheaper than sending someone to prison. So there are a variety of reasons that this could shift us in a better direction and is something that I'm paying a lot of attention to this research space.

Ben (47:47):

Yeah. So that's all of your work on sort of technology and justice and crime. Those arguments from policymakers actually really irritate me sometimes because sometimes it's clear. So if you've got differences in countries like America with guns and Europe, okay, there might be differences. But when the causal model you have is the same kind of human and the same kind of thing, it's kind of really silly to do that. It's like you are putting it back. There's a reason that there's these similarities. And if you ask the experts, they will generally agree when they think there's read through or when they think there's not read through. And they're also generally right as well, that's the other thing. If you do the research and say, 'You are to guess in advance, do you think this will replicate or not replicate a couple of these things?" Actually, economists generally get it right, which is also kind of unsurprising there.

Maybe we should touch a little bit on also what doesn't work. I recall you said earlier cameras can work, but I think you were referring to kind of CCTV cameras and cameras on the street which we have a lot of in London. Actually, we might have reached over saturation because once you have one on every block-- maybe three on every block is not going to do you any further, but one on a block versus not. Whereas I think your work suggests or we've looked at that body cameras, long story short, kind of probably don't work and are also quite expensive. Another thing which maybe doesn't work or is a little bit more mixed-- and this is kind of on the flip side, is when you're applying for jobs and you're kind of now when you're resume blind. So you don't have to say things about...

Jennifer (49:23):

Ban the box policies.

Ben (49:24):

Yeah. Ban the box. I forgot the buzzy buzzword on that which is kind of interesting because you would've thought that, "Oh, maybe not." But the second order effects which might be the same with the body cams, which I thought was quite interesting. And maybe in the third one which also seems to be a little bit more contested was on alternative drug use for naloxone and methadone and things like that; whether there's any displacement on that. So I'd be interested in your views on some of the things which actually may be second order when we've looked at them in more controlled cases, may not seem to have worked how we thought or either contested or neutral or you kind of think actually they may not be worth the money. Those were the three I picked up on in in your work.

Jennifer (50:13):

Yeah. So I'm talking a lot here about what works, what have we learned. The drum I usually am beating with policymakers is these are really hard problems to solve, most things we try will not work. We should aim to fail fast; not to fail because the reality is most things we try are not going to have the effects that we are hoping for. And often they're going to backfire just because these are such complex situations and human behavior is really hard to predict a lot of the time. So these are great examples, those sorts of situations. So cameras in general like CCTV cameras seem to be really beneficial because they're increasing the probability that you get caught. And again, as I mentioned earlier, we have a lot of evidence now that increasing the probability you get caught has a much bigger deterrent effect than increasing the punishment.

So they have a privacy cost and so that needs to be our public conversation; like different types of surveillance technologies are going to have bigger benefits than others and also bigger costs than others. So weighing those things becomes the conversation we should have. But we should know that in general they're going to be more effective than putting people in prison for 20 years. The body-worn camera literature is actually really interesting because there were all of these really nice randomized controlled trials, which is really unusual in the space. We had all these RCTs across different countries randomly give body-worn cameras to some police officers and not others. The working hypothesis there was that if the officer is wearing the camera and knows their behavior is observed, they're going to be less likely to behave badly which could include knowingly escalating a situation to an arrest or use of force when it didn't need it.

So to the extent that police are behaving badly in a conscious way rather than just because they're afraid for their safety, for instance, then body-worn cameras could reduce that bad behavior. But across all these RCTs, basically we found very little evidence of any sort of benefit or any behavior change at all. So that was really discouraging. All these places kept their body-worn cameras presumably because they weren't actually counting on that behavior change as the main goal of the policy. They also just wanted transparency and they wanted to be able to hold people accountable when something bad happened, even if it was somewhat rare. So that was sort of the conversation for a long time.

But we've since had a couple studies come out that have made the point to the extent that these body-worn cameras-- that if some officers are wearing them and others aren't, it could still have a broader impact on the community in a way that within community randomized control trial is not going to pick up. So part of this is just spillovers across officers or across ships depending on how these things are randomized. The studies already always talked about this, but it was hard to tell exactly how big the spillovers would be. Anyway, so there have been a couple of other studies that have just compared communities that adopted body-worn cameras with those that didn't and compared trends over time. And those seem to find at least suggestive evidence of big reductions in police use of force in the places that adopted body-worn cameras, which suggests that these community-wide effects could be happening. This is still a very active research area, active conversation, but it feels like maybe there's something there that we didn't see with the RCTs, which is just fascinating from a research perspective because we usually love RCTs. It's like the best gold standard, at least.

Ben (53:49):

No design is perfect.

Jennifer (53:50):

No design is perfect. You learn different things from different designs.

Ben (53:53):

Yeah. And they can’t capture everything, right?

Jennifer (53:55):

Exactly. Yeah.

Ben (53:57):

Interesting. So the jury is still out?

Jennifer (53:59):

The jury is suddenly still out. It's back out. The jury was in for a while and now it's back out because of this new evidence which is just-- science man, it's great. On Ban the Box, yes, this is an area I've studied directly. So basically the idea behind Ban the Box is that we are worried that a lot of people with criminal records cannot get their foot in the door to get a job interview or to be considered for a job because employers see-- Like, they'll have a box on an application saying, "Have you ever been convicted of a crime?" If you check yes on that box, anecdotally, we know that employers will often just throw those applications out. We also just have a bunch of really nice experimental research where people send fictitious resumes from different people with the box checked or not. We know employers discriminate against people with criminal records. So there's good evidence on that.

The hope was that we could stop that discrimination by just removing that box. So banning the box. But this of course prompts economists like me to say, "Well, then what will they do next without the box? Why is it that they were discriminating in the first place?" And if they're worried about, for whatever reason, an employer doesn't want to hire someone with a criminal record, removing that information doesn't remove that worry for whatever reason. They still don't want to hire someone with a criminal record; you haven't changed that. Now, you've just left them in a position where they have to guess who has a criminal record. And the United States, there are huge racial disparities and who has a criminal record. So it would be statistically accurate for them to assume that young black men are more likely to have a recent conviction they might be worried about than young white men, for instance.

So this kind of policy could increase racial disparities in employment rather than reduce them. And indeed, we had previous studies showing that when employers first got access to criminal records, like in the nineties when the internet became more widely available, we actually saw reductions in racial disparities; reduced racial disparities in employment because it seems employers were racially discriminating before because they were worried about hiring people with criminal records and not because of race itself. So adding the box on actually was a policy limine at the time to racial discrimination, even if that wasn't exactly the design. But it turned out that was a good intervention.

So now we removed the box and we actually see big increases-- this is what I find in my study-- big increases in racial disparities in employment for young black men. A bunch of other studies have shown these policies don't even help people with criminal records get jobs. So we see that young black men who don't have a record, their employment is falling because they can't signal they don't have a record upfront. But the people with a record aren't even getting the second chance that the policy had hoped it would get, because eventually the employer can do a background check and reject their application then. So this policy has just been a complete disaster and it's still very popular. I think there are a lot of advocates who view it as just like a step in a broader movement which can be-- I am sympathetic to that concern and the broader desire to want to increase second chances for people with criminal records and want to improve reintegration-- something I study a lot myself. But this particular policy is not working and actually seems to be making things worse. So, yes, there are many other things we could be doing instead and so I have that conversation a lot with folks. But yeah, great example of how just well-intended policies do not always have good effects. So we need to be making sure we're meeting the goals that we set out to meet.

And then on the drug front, I have a study on Naloxone and opioids which is easily the most controversial paper written which is sort of amazing. I write a lot on race and crime. It turns out this paper on, I mean, essentially noting that depending on whether you want to use the words moral hazard or risk compensation. If you make something safer to do, people are going to do more of it. So basically Naloxone is this amazing drug that basically reverses overdoses of opioids. So it saves your life if you're in the midst of an opioid overdose. And there are these policies that just dramatically broadened access to this. So just sort of you could easily get it from pharmacies, anywhere without a prescription. A lot of people thought like, "Great, this is just an obvious clear wind. You're just going to save a lot of lives. This could dramatically change the opioid epidemic." An economist might like me, looks at it and says, "Well, probably we'll have a lot of benefits, but could also increase risky opioid use. If we're going to make something safer, people are going to do more of it. So how much of that benefit does it undo?" 

And so I have this paper with Anita Mukherjee where it seems to undo a lot of the benefit. We see no net decline in deaths due to opioid overdoses even though people go to the ER more with overdoses. So it seems like there's some which together suggest there's more actual risky use. In general, our takeaway is even if we obviously want to save people's lives in the moment, but we have to recognize that this policy does not seem to be a slam dunk on its own, and we have to be investing in other things like treatment or other solutions. So, yeah, that paper has generated a lot of anger from the public health community. It occasionally comes up for one reason or another, and the harm reduction folks become irate and send me lots of angry emails. But look, I am also interested in saving lives. And I think the question here is just what the best way is to do it.

Ben (01:00:01):

Yeah. The answer is it's complicated. I spent a few minutes on the internet. I was surprised at the strength of anger. I mean, they were really rude. It's kind of really interesting because-- I don't know why I wouldn't expect it in academia. I kind of expend it to my day job is all about investments and markets and I kind of expect us to be rude with one another. We're trying to make money and obviously we think some person is wrong because otherwise we wouldn't do that. But I kind of thought with people in good faith trying to do something complicated to get to the right answer. It's complicated, humans are humans. So there was that. But I guess that the strength of pushback probably continues to surprise you today then.

Jennifer (01:00:50):

Totally. It's just amazing. Similarly, I'm an economist and academic economists are not known for being warm and fuzzy and nice. You're all used to heavy pushback, very sharp criticism in academic seminars, but all in sort of an intellectual-- It's all part of an intellectual exchange where we're trying to make the ideas better. We're pushing each other on the ideas and the data. And if you have a disagreement, you go to the data with it. It's like, "Well, let's see. Let's test these different hypotheses." The pushback that I have gotten from the public health community, Lisa's corner of it, over the years seems much more in line with the idea that there is a consensus on what the "right answer" is on a policy topic like this. And we found the "wrong answer." And so that goes against what they've been advocating for in policy circles. So they need to come after the paper and sort of tear us down as opposed to talking about like, "What could be wrong with their research methods or whatever." Actually talking about how to make the paper better.

So I've had a lot of very frustrating conversations with people since about the sort of detrimental effect that that kind of attitude within a scientific community has on the research that's done. It's not surprising to me that you haven't seen other papers reach similar conclusions from within that community because people get the very clear message that they will be ostracized and torn apart publicly if they even suggest if they ever find a result like this. I've got a pretty thick skin and I'm willing to work on controversial topics, but it definitely deterred me from ever writing a paper on health myself again. And I'm sure it deters others from working in this area which I think is what a lot of these folks want. I know a lot of wonderful people who work in public health and are public health researchers, and they're doing excellent work. But it does seem to be a corner of that research community where there are more advocates than scholars. And I think that is the segment of the community that comes after me on the internet every year or so. It's just sort of amazing. I don't take it personally anymore. It's just clear that this is just something else that's going on, but it's fascinating to watch and I'm curious to see how it evolves over time.

Ben (01:03:15):

Sure. Yeah, I saw a glance of it and obviously don't know the ins and outs. But it strikes me that this is a symptom of wider challenge, which I see across many sectors. I think we see it within economics. I guess also with a kind of more recent me too phenomena or the fact that I have a lot of women friends and also younger female friends who find economics are kind of unfriendly. They also find this about law, investment banking, quite a lot of other sectors. So I mean, we can brush quite a lot of that. But also amongst the social sciences-- And I had this conversation with economists here in the UK, with Diane Coyle, who makes similar things. It kind of shapes also the research agenda, also how the diversity of thought, and that there seemed to be so many reports in the last couple of years. Again, this is just skimming the internet, occasionally seeing things on social media or whatever was sort of ‘me too’ and these allegations, which seem to sit quite awkwardly. I guess from your viewpoint being a woman in economics, but actually soon to leave academia, what your viewpoint is. Obviously, everyone just got their own personal story. This is not necessarily N equals 10,000, but N equals one. But I seem to get a lot of N equals one of women who haven't necessarily been super happy with the state of where economics is in terms of diversity of people or thought and things like that. I'd be interested if you had any thoughts on that.

Jennifer (01:04:51):

Yeah. So this is a topic I have thought a lot about over my career. In general, I love being an economist. I love the toolkit and the insights that economics brings to important social problems like criminal justice policy and reform. Being in academic and working at a university as an economist can be different. So then we're talking about working within certain industry. So first, I mean, I think there has been a lot of talk for a long time about just the way that women and various racial groups are just tremendously underrepresented in economics. I think in general we hover like full professors-- It's around like 20% of full professors are women and somewhere around a third of all assistant professors are women. Maybe half is too lofty a goal, but it'd be nicer to get closer to half.

It seems to be worse than in other STEM field. So a lot of times people are like, "Oh, well, it's just such a math-based profession." Of course for me, if you are women, that doesn't seem to be the holdup. It's something different about economics that does seem to make it worse. There've been a bunch of really nice empirical studies recently in recent years showing that women do seem to face biases in publication in terms of being burned with more service within the academy and all this other kind of stuff that reduces productivity or parent productivity, even if our actual intellectual contributions are the same. And like you, I've heard a lot of N equals one stories from lots of friends at this point who just have faced lots of what feels like one-off challenges and biases and lack of recognition of their contributions and their professional value in the workplace. They're just really frustrated. I think at this point I am solidly mid-career, I've been a professor for 11 years.

Most women I know who are sort of in my general cohort are really struggling and really starting to look for other jobs. But they're trying to figure out what those alternatives are. And I think a lot of us, if you spend all this time in the academy, you work so hard for tenure, it feels crazy to give tenure up. I personally got to a point where both and just experiences in the universities, but also in this broader economy too conversation that I was heavily part of in this past fall. It just kind of got to a point where it seemed clear to me that while tenure guarantees you a job, it doesn't guarantee you a good job. It just made me more open to the possibility of giving tenure up and considering something else. Then once I did that, all of a sudden, there are really amazing opportunities that are available. So yeah, I'm moving to Arnold Ventures. I'll be running their criminal justice program. So excited, it's such a good fit for me. I'm going to have an opportunity to really influence research and policy in this area in ways that I've already been trying to do, but it will just be so much easier to do from this other platform. So very excited. It's definitely a move for the best. Now, I find myself, when I talk to women who are like, "I don't know, this is just such a terrible job. I don't know..." I've stopped just commiserating and now I full on encourage them to consider other options. So I think they are out there.

There are all kinds of people that are really working hard within economics to make it better. In general, I still strongly encourage women to go and major in economics, even get a PhD in economics if they love research. I think it's an amazing toolkit and an amazing source of expertise and it allows you to have an influence and interesting insights on wherever you want to apply it. But I'm also very glad that there are now lots of different ways that you can apply that expertise. You don't have to become a professor. You can work in tech, you can work in industry. Everybody loves economists at this point and sees their value. So, yeah, that's the not so short version of my current thinking on economics and the profession.

Ben (01:09:44):

Sounds very clear. I'm going to ask about Arnold Ventures at the end. I guess I had one question then on this. What would you propose to the economics profession? Are there any policies or ideas or culture change? I will link it back to policing, because why not? What I've seen here-- this is more of a London metropolitan police issue which I've seen. But it does strike me that particularly for London which is quite a multicultural city, having a police force which reflects your city really seems to help. So more women and more minorities in the police. And again, this for me is anecdotal. But I've seen some little bit in literature and kind of because it causely makes sense that if you're part of the black community and you see black police officers, you kind of feel like you're going to be listening to people in your community and you'll be listened to.

Jennifer (01:10:35):

They'll take you seriously.

Ben (01:10:35):

Take you seriously either if you have a complaint or if you feel like you're being picked on. "Oh, it's not being picked on. Hey bro, this is what's happening." You'll feel you are listened to. And again, all sorts of good reasons for having women. So I'm actually quite interestingly a fan of kind of-- I don't know whether you'd necessarily get there by quotas, but diversity In police force, diversity to a lot of organizations seem to have these system-wide benefits, which obviously I could see happening in economics. I wonder whether you think that's true of policing and then what would you do for economics?

Jennifer (01:11:10):

Yes, there's definitely evidence that that's the case in policing; that having more women officers increases reporting of gender-based violence, reduces homicides due to domestic violence, for instance. Increasing the hiring of black police officers seems to reduce victimization of black people in the community. So basically the story you laid out is supported by the data, at least studies we have so far. And I think this is a place where seeing if this continues to hold up in current day-- a lot of this was based on litigation in the seventies and eighties. So we're a different baseline, but it’s definitely something I think we have good reason to believe would be a really good fix for policing or at least contribute moving in the right direction.

I think the same holds in economics. I mean, we know that there are important role model effects. It's hard to be what you can't see; that whole thing. So having more senior women encourages more women to come into the profession. There also is evidence that people appreciate having mentors who are like them in some way. And you could imagine women being able to be better mentors to women because they just understand their experience. So there have been interesting papers suggesting that one way affirmative action can be beneficial in the long run is that it brings in at least a first cohort of senior people from this minority group, and then that has long-term benefits. Even if the affirmative action stops, they're able to mentor people further down. So then it can kind of continue the flow of people from that minority in. So you could imagine there being big benefits there.

I mean, economists in general hate quotas, but there have been all these interesting studies showing that quotas, at least in the political space requiring a certain number of women to be elected from certain places. They all seem to have huge benefits and it seems to be mostly crowding out more of mediocre male candidates. It changes the way that residents think about women in leadership. Right now, they are actually seeing a woman leader and so they're less likely to think women can't lead or they're maybe more able to be better judges of women candidates because they now have a better-- they've seen some examples and are able to… Maybe they didn't know how to tell who would be a good woman leader from a bad woman leader before, but now they can; something like that.

So you can imagine similar stories in economics. As someone who has organized seminar series in various places that I've worked, I have definitely in the past thought about I want to bring in more junior candidates from underrepresented groups because I want my senior white male colleagues to think about these people as economists; these are examples of what economists look like. That has been a very active type of intervention I've made in the past. I think all of this stuff matters. And then as you said before, I mean, there's a reason. This isn't all just to make us feel good. I honestly think the science will be better if we have the best and brightest people at the table; and you can't do that if a huge segment of the population either feels excluded or is actively excluded and discriminated against.

But then also it changes the research questions that we're asking, if we don't have people with all kinds of life experiences in the room. We will come up with better policy solutions, we'll come up with better hypotheses if we have a variety of perspectives there. So this is good for science ultimately; to have a wider variety of people there and to break down the different silos that are separating us currently. So a lot of this is motivated just by like, "I'm just tired of injustice. It's just really frustrating to see my friends not valued by their colleagues.” But part of it is, honestly, I think this is just really important for science. And really, I think, economics is often offering some of the best policy solutions in really important spaces and we have seats at the table a lot more than people from other disciplines. So if we're falling down on the job because of stuff like this, feels to me like a relatively easy fix.

Ben (01:15:40):

Yeah. Better for the science, better for humanity. I wasn't aware of that political leadership work you mentioned there, but makes a lot of sense to me. Great. So I thought I'll finish with a little overrated, underrated, and then future questions. So if you're up for it, you can just go overrated, underrated, or you can pass or neutral. I'll start with Texas.

Jennifer (01:16:07):

Totally underrated.

Ben (01:16:09):

Of course. It's got to be.

Jennifer (01:16:10):

I love Texas so much. I grew up in...

Ben (01:16:12):

You're Texas born?

Jennifer (01:16:12):

I grew up in Massachusetts. I grew up in Massachusetts and have slowly been moving farther south. I like warm weather unfriendly people, and Texas is great on both counts. So I love it here.

Ben (01:16:24):

What's most misunderstood about Texas?

Jennifer (01:16:29):

I think on the coasts of the US it's very-- it's like people really enjoy making fun of Texas as being this crazy outlier where everyone is just politically super hard right and it's just not true. It's like any state. There are rural areas and urban areas. Also, it's a huge state. There are like five major cities in this state. So it's just a really diverse place; I think that's the biggest thing.

Ben (01:17:06):

Yeah, it's like Nashville and Tennessee also. People think of it as one thing, but it's more than that. So overrated or underrated, universal basic income.

Jennifer (01:17:21):

I think probably overrated. Feels like it's getting a lot of hype. It's not a policy that I am super excited about as like a panacea.

Ben (01:17:37):

Yeah, that seems fair to me. Overrated or underrated, DNA databases.

Jennifer (01:17:47):

Underrated. I have research showing that they have huge deterrent effect. As I was saying before, there are going to be some surveillance technologies where there are really big privacy costs and others where there's less. This one I think people think because it's DNA, it's really invasive, but it's not what you're imagining. They're not analyzing your whole genome. It's really just like a higher tech fingerprint. So low privacy costs.

Ben (01:18:13):

I think they're overblown. In fact, so on my health work, I think this overall privacy concern is holding back all of our healthcare data analytics and we don't realize we give so much more information to Facebook and Google and Apple anyway. We've ticked the bot and given it to them. Actually, because of the rules and regulations we've held onto healthcare, but actually the healthcare would really help us out. And the data to Google only allows them to sell you more widgets and shoes. So we've got it backwards. It is more targeted shoes, so it's the shoes that you want. So there is maybe a little bit of consumer welfare, but it's not the same in health. We've definitely got that the wrong way around. But anyway. And it's through the same channel like the CCTV is because your probability of getting caught, it puts you off

Jennifer (01:19:05):

Exactly. Yep.

Ben (01:19:06):

Overrated or underrated, daylight savings time.

Jennifer (01:19:12):

Written in all my papers here. I think underrated. So from a crime perspective, it turns out shifting daylight to the evening, which is what daylight saving time does, reduces crime because people are more likely to get caught when the sun is out.

Ben (01:19:27):

Yeah. So I only learned that this week. So a lot of people don't seem to like daylight savings time, but I hadn't heard this angle. So actually when you put into the crime effects, it actually seemed to be more robust, a slightly bigger number than I thought.

Jennifer (01:19:44):

Yeah. People often think of daylight saving time as the switching, but it's actually like daylight saving time is the summer when sunlight is in the evening and then standard time is when the sunlight is in the morning. We could eliminate the switching and just keep daylight saving time year round. And so people occasionally propose this in Congress. So you could imagine like three different fights. You want to have, “Do you want the switching?” And all the costs that people worry about seem to come from the switching of the time change. So you don't get as much sleep and there are more heart attacks and car accidents and all this stuff because people are thrown off. But we could do away with the switching and just keep daylight saving time in terms of when we want our daylight.

Ben (01:20:27):

So you get one step up. And that's because more crime happens at night, is that right? Or in darkness.

Jennifer (01:20:33):

More crime happens at night, right.

Ben (01:20:33):

It does happen at night. Is it actually easier to do crime at night or is it just perceived to be from the stories we tell ourselves so that's why we do it.

Jennifer (01:20:45):

Yeah. I mean, I usually quip that criminals aren't morning people. They're not getting up to rob you at 6:00 AM or 7:00 AM on your commute. They're only going to rob you at 5:00 PM on your commute. There might actually be more people out and about at 5:00 PM too and you might be more likely to walk home than walk to work. But for whatever reason, there's a lot more crime in the evening. And so shifting the daylight then does actually reduce crime overall, it doesn't just get shifted to the morning.

Ben (01:21:16):

Sure. And the last one on this, the links between I guess climate and crime, although I guess this might be more specifically heat.

Jennifer (01:21:29):

So, yes, we have all of this evidence that higher temperatures increase crime. I have work with Jonathan Colmer showing that that also intersects with gun laws, going back to the first part of our conversation. And gun laws are very effective at mitigating this crime intersection. But the all matters because climate change is happening and our temperatures are rising so we should expect violent crime to rise too, and all of these anti-violence programs are only going to be more important as temperatures go up more.

Ben (01:22:10):

That makes a lot of sense. Great. So last couple of questions. How about your future work and ventures? So what's on your agenda for your work with Arnold Ventures and what's all of the other things you're getting up to?

Jennifer (01:22:25):

That's the main one right now. So yes, I'll be the executive vice president for criminal justice at Arnold Ventures starting in July, which means I'm overseeing their research and advocacy funding and strategies. In general, what is really attractive to me about Arnold and what has drawn me to them and why I think I'm a good match, is they are very focused on rigorous research informing policy. And not only trying to support and generate more of that really high quality causal research, but also getting it into the hands of policymakers and making sure that it's having an impact. So yeah, I'll be doing a lot of that. I will keep the podcast going. I've realized in the close conversations that a lot of the stuff I have been doing as a professor has mostly been structures to help me keep better tabs on what is going on in the field, which of course is now going to be only more important in this new job. Just knowing who's working on what and what new evidence is out there. So I have this online seminar series; plan to keep that going; a conference every year, keep that going, and the podcast. So that's the big thing.

I'm moving to Houston, I'll be spending a lot of time in DC and New York. A lot of our team is there. Basically, I'm really looking forward to learning from the incredible people that are on the Arnold VJ team. It's just a tremendous group of people who have been working in the criminal justice policy space for a really long time and I'm going to learn a lot; both about the research they've been supporting, but also just these policy areas which hasn't been directly part of my job to be actively engaged in the policy conversation. And so that'll be much more proactively part of what I'm doing. Other than that, I'm working on a book called, The Science of Second Chances. So that will keep going. It's due to go to my editor in December, so I'm hoping to get that in on time That book is going to be on basically what we know from the research on the best ways to intervene at each stage of the criminal justice process to give people a real second chance and break the incarceration cycle. So I'm keeping that going while I am starting to think about this transition out of academia and into the real world.

Ben (01:24:57):

That all sounds great. Got a bit of a great advice. So the last question would be, any life advice for people?

Jennifer (01:25:21):

I think the main thing that I try to remind myself and hopefully will be relevant to other people too, is I think that we are all probably too cautious in terms of taking leaps, making changes, leaving employers, leaving industries, leaving relationships. I think there are a lot of things that we could imagine either like sunk costs; there's a sunk cost fallacy here, which economists love to think about. Like, “I've already invested so much in this thing, so I don't want to leave." But I think also it's just a fear of the unknown. And so we imagine that the alternative is going to be the worst possibility. We know what we have right now, but in practice I actually think the alternative tends to be much better.

So I think a lot of us are too risk averse in terms of being willing to make changes. And most of the time when I talk to friends after they've hemmed and hawed for ages about whether to make some leap, they're so much happier once they do. This is somewhat related. There was a study a couple years ago by Steve Levitt and probably some co-authors looking at-- they randomized people into just like, if they had some major life decision to make, they flipped a coin and then did whatever... They were sufficiently torn that they did whatever the coin told them to do. And the people where the coin randomly told them to make the change and take the leap were actually much happier later. So that confirmed my general hypothesis that I think a lot of us are too risk averse in making major life changes. So when in doubt, I try to take the leap.

Ben (01:27:12):

Take more risk. I had someone who's a master improv actor and there's a theme in improv, which is always say yes. So that's one of the things. Well, on that note, Jennifer Doleac, thank you very much.

Jennifer (01:27:30):

Thank you. Thanks for having me. This was really fun.

In Podcast, Life, Politics Tags Jennifer Doleac, Crime, Policy, Police, Justice

Are liberal democracies feeling stuck? Tyler Cowen, Stephen Bush, David Goodhart.

November 18, 2022 Ben Yeoh

I have walked this walk home through Soho countless times over the last 20 years. Down Dean Street with people of all fashion and colours singing, drinking and loving in the same but different ways.

For all our moans, this microcosm of London, this microcosm of liberal democracy is thriving and living and has - if anything - grown stronger over 20 years.

For sure, for example, queers must fight their good fight and allies must support them. But here they are as open as ever, I sense. There is even some disability access (yes there should be more). Wealth has crept up on us.

I travel by the Elizabeth line. A new piece of transport infrastructure. Yes, we can still build! (if but a little slow). We can travel to Shenfield in the east directly in under an hour, leaving at midnight. The people of 1922 would be astonished. The people of 1822 would think this fantastical magic. The people of 1722 would not even comprehend.

Think! Today! This seems to me almost how we might view an octopus’ life… so far out of our ability to understand yet a clever sentient being.

I'm walking down Dean Street after listening to Tyler Cowen along with David Goodhart and Stephen Bush, chaired by Munira Mirza.

Purportedly this panel were debating if liberal democracies were feeling stuck. But John Gray the philosopher known for some of his critiques here was sick so was not present.

(I will shout out Munira's new venture, Civic Future. She is hoping to train people for civic life. Non partisan although she is associated with Boris Johnson and the right / centre right, her advisory board is mixed politically - so centrist-ish.)

Tyler Cowen started by arguing:

The stagnation he identified for the last 20 or so years is on the cusp of being over. This is driven by 

  • biomedical innovation (in part catalysed by vaccines (mRNA, COVID, deepmind [my addition]) 

  • step change in AI

  • even green energy might be getting somewhere

He conceded there is still much too regulation (and “supply side reform” eg ease of permitting would be helpful) in all areas except (1) finance and (2) environment.

Tyler argued this innovation cusp is in part from markets and in part from governments.


He suggested if you are conscientious, work hard, and try hard that the opportunities have never been better.


You will need to work with and get used to AI, but so be it, the world will be better. We had the transition from horses to cars. From letters to email. So be it. 


This is a fundamental change to human condition. Human are no good at seeing the invisible growth which is key to this, we prefer stories and anecdotes, but none the less this is the important thing - economic growth (tempered by environment cf. being  ⅔ utilitarian and Stubborn Attachments, see earlier blog).


There was some concession to the difficulties of “splitting the pie fairly” rather than growing the pie, but growing the pie was the important thing. (This does follow from economic history also from recent work by eg Brad De Long, centre left economist, Slouching to Utopia; and Mark Koyama/Jared Rubin, How the World Became Rich - see my podcast previously with Mark)


Stephen Bush mostly agreed, harking back to life in 1900s. Goodhart was a little more pessimistic but seemed to have been overcome by Tyler’s optimism and charisma on this. [Although his microphone was also quieter, so I think I might have missed his comments. ED: Goodhart replied on twitter, so I now have his arguement in brief: his argument "was arguing that after 30 year liberal run, we had political push back (2016) from left behinds creating an nywhere/Somewhere stalemate. Politics more democratic but more stuck + despite policy consensus on many big things pols less good herders of cats… See this New Statesman piece and whole book on it)

(Mirza seemed almost surprised by this too thinking Tyler might still be worried about stagnation and regulation; she offered in passing the strongest rebuttal in evoking the people outside London, poorer and with different opinions perhaps).


Tyler suggested perhaps the centrist who want to get on may in some ways be the most politically homeless as the left and right mirror each other and need each other to feed off.


Tyler ended up evoking London as his piece of culture to understand the world (citing current art exhibitions including:  Cezanne and Stephen Bush chose Ali and Ava (I’ have not seen but my friend also recommends)


I asked:

  • What do you make of median voter theory?

  • Should we have 10% less democracy?

Tyler, and the rest thought median voter theory was working in the UK and US.

Tyler argued for 7% less democracy but to not over do it here as democracy was still great. Bush suggested UK had about the right amount of democracy.


Other questions and thoughts: what about VR? (real life is better) Do we have “the wrong kind of voters” ? (Not really, but revealed vs stated preferences). Should creatives and professionals be worried about AI (we will have to live with AI. Suck it up). ? Is the UK health service an example of a failing, stuck service. (Panel I didn’t think really answered this)  Does Yarvin want a US monarchy ? Should we be worried about an ageing society ? Should we be worried about work identity wars ? No.  Identity wars are a small side show - mainly over-egged in universities - and not the major story. (Weak universities are being outcompeted by the internet in any case)


My other two takeaways are around:

  • Vividness

  • Humour

Tyler is very vivid in real life. I suppose everyone is. In the remote world, in-person meetings and events are perhaps under rated (see my blog on UnConferences on this). His distinctive prosody is clear and he is funny.


Tyler had good comic timing and - to my mind - was listening hard to the audience as well as the panel. By listening, I mean, the active technique of surveying and assessing your audience. He was much funnier than I was expecting. (I don’t see too much of this humour in his podcasts, but it oozes out of him in real life).


As aside:

I didn’t get such a good read on Goodhart. (In part his mic wasn’t picking up his sound very well). I was fairly impressed by Bush (East London to Balliol, Oxford) who I thought held his own although readers of his columns wouldn’t have picked up too much new. He did argue COVID and Brexit were a form of unluckiness in the political cycle, and argued pro-migration/anti-migration was a long cycle pattern in the last 100 years of British history, which I haven’t heard expressed that way before. He did seem to draw upon his knowledge of history.

Civic Futures: Would this make me want to consider being trained for public life? (Given I already do a lot of small charity work, podcast, make theatre, and interact on investment/ESG with policy) Probably not. But I guess if I already had some ambitions here this would be a good place to start.

In Writing, Life, Politics Tags Tyler Cowen, Stephen Bush, David Goodhart
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