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Catherine Howarth on shareholder activism, growing back better and change makers | Podcast

July 25, 2021 Ben Yeoh

How does individual shareholder activism work? How does personal agency and systems change work together in a theory of change? How do we become change makers? What did Catherine's mother teach me?

Catherine is  Chief Executive of  ShareAction. She coordinates civil society activism to promote responsible investment Catherine was recognised by the World Economic Forum as a Young Global Leader in 2014. ShareAction campaigns have significantly altered corporate strategy and government policy. For instance, on HSBC making environmental commitments and Tesco making healthy food commitments.

  • We chat about Catherine’s journey into activism and the theories of change that have influenced her.

  • We discuss how poetry, Ursula Le Guin and feminism have impacted us.

  • How to convince open minded skeptics to your cause. 

Listen below, transcript and podcast links below. Video above and here.

Podcast links:

  • Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3gJTSuo

  • Spotify: https://sptfy.com/benyeoh

  • Anchor: https://anchor.fm/benjamin-yeoh

Contents (Youtube links)

  • 01:08 Catherine’s activism journey

  • 06:48 Catherine on community and theory of change

  • 10:06 ShareAction theory of change

  • 16:49 Healthy eating campaign, ideas on fiduciary duty

  • 23:18 How to decide on campaign topics 26:32 Converting skeptics

  • 28:54 Storying telling, individual agency at National Express

  • 33:13 What poetry taught me

  • 39:49 Questions on individual pension investors vote

  • 50:30 Maximising the well being of people

  • 54:11 Responsible Investment Bill idea, maximising welfare

  • 58:10 Better growth not degrowth

  • 1:01:11 Problems of vaccine nationalism

  • 1:03:45 Underrated/overrated: art, cycling, carbon tax, voting, remote work, having children

  • 1:15:41 Catherines advice to young people

Transcript (mostly unedited)

Catherine Howarth on Shareholder Activism, Better Growth and Being a Change Maker


Ben Yeoh: (00:01) Hello, and welcome to Ben Yeoh Chats, my podcast. If you're curious about wealth, this show is for you. How does shareholder activism work? In this episode, I speak to Catherine Howarth. We discussed how Catherine is thinking about her journey into activism and systems theory of change, how to grow back better and be a change maker. If you enjoy the show, please like and subscribe as it helps others find the podcast. Thank you, enjoy.


Hey everyone, I'm super excited to have Catherine Howarth with me today. Catherine is the Chief Executive of ShareAction. She coordinates civil society activism to promote responsible investment, and she was recognized as the World Economic Forum Young Global Leader in 2014. So, Catherine, welcome. Thank you. 


Catherine Howarth: (00:54) Thanks Ben 


Ben Yeoh: (00:55) So maybe we could start with just telling us a little bit about your journey into activism, how you kind of ended up in civil society, and your route into that.

Catherine Howarth: (01:08) Absolutely. Well, I, I feel like the roots of it go quite far back into my childhood and I have very vivid memories of reading about the suffragettes at school and being very interested and impressed by that. But after university, I wasn't sure you know, what I was going to do at all. I had a mini-crisis, but you know, you go through school, you get to university all hell's like, it's all plotted out. And then you come out into the blinking out, into the big wide world and you've got to make a choice out of a kazillion things you could do with your life, and I found that brief, beautifully whelming.

But anyway, I went to live in the East end of London; I grew up in West London and I went to live in east London. I have never been to East London, there's no reason as a young person growing up in West London, you would ever go to the East end of London, which I never had despite being a Londoner. Anyway, I went to live there and then I became involved in a… I'm a Roman Catholic, my mom's Irish, and I grew up Catholic and I turned it around for a church and I found this parish church an incredibly multicultural, amazing place full of people from all over the world. I mean that Catholic parish for a Londoner is one of the most multicultural institutions on the planet I would think, and it was an interesting experience. And I became involved in an amazing organization just as a volunteer called TELCO, The East London Community Organization. And it was just an amazing bit of luck really because TELCO would tap into a set of community organizers in the United States which had been kind of founded by an interesting activist and thinker called Saul Alinsky, who wrote an amazing book called Rules for Radicals which I would recommend. 

And so, I kind of bumped into this very disciplined form, a very structured and very thoughtful form of activism, which thinks about how do you build power? How do you… for low-income communities for disadvantaged people. And how do you start to bear in mind that people in those kinds of communities operate inside their little community groupings? And in fact, they need to cross outside of those peoples and connect and figure out what their common self-interests are and then get organized, and they had a brilliant method of doing that. And so, yes, I just kind of came across this wonderful method of community organizing, and I got involved in activism, and then I got the opportunity to start the Living Wage Campaign in the UK.


And so, I left my job working for Think Tank whilst it was voluntary work, which was really what was inspiring and interesting, and so I became an organizer, community organizer. And I remember quite clearly my father thinking, “what is she doing with her career and her life” and express some concern. And the work indeed involved going to Canary Wharf night after night at about 9:00 PM when the cleaners would arrive and all the bankers went home and talking to cleaners about their lives and beginning to get organized, and then figuring out how we talked to banks about the coming to the UK first living wage employers. But equally working in hospitals in the east end, talking to cleaners who were on contracts that have been awarded by the National Health Service and where it was kind of outsourcing contracted labor just resulted in people in the hospital sector having absolutely rock bottom wages and no sick pay.


So as a result, they would come into work sick and unwell into the hospital, totally called public health hazard, just as a result of this kind of logical contracting and outsourcing. And it was very politicizing for me, all of that. And by the way, it's where I put my first flavor of ShareAction shareholder activism, which is what I've done for the last 13 years. Because we bought some shares in HSBC and Barclays, and I attended my first AGM and asked some questions and just kind of like almost by accident fed into all of that. But anyway, that's how I sort of posed the roots of it for me.


Ben Yeoh: (05:49) That's amazing. And I find this interesting that there was kind of seeds of your activist thinking from, I guess, quite young, partly you're saying, you know, never being the East-West London, seeing that mixed community, and partly from reading about the suffragettes and I guess coming quite early to an idea or theory of change or how political power can happen or how can you affect change. And do you think has been quite formative having a robust model of the theory of change about how political power might happen or not? Because I guess you think about, you know, old power structures or incumbent power structures and they often tell insurgent ideas of, you know, not going to work, what are you doing? isn't this crazy to feel, you know, you have a purpose, but you have, oh, this is a mechanism which might cause change. Is that being quite powerful for you?

Catherine Howarth :(06:48) That was essential for me. And I think any kind of social activism needs the discipline of a kind of a method or an explanatory framework. The world is big and overwhelming and it's so complex, and you know, each of us is so tiny. And so, you need to think in quite a structured way about how do you have an impact beyond just this unit of one person that… and that's about operating collectively. And that's about tapping into people's imagination, tapping into people's self-interest, and beginning to make people move together. It's like the power of the shell of fish know tiny but collectively quiet, you know, powerful and to defend itself. So yes, for me, it was transformational to come across this brilliantly thought three methodologically sound forms of community activism, which placed people in relationships between people absolutely at the heart of it was very sort of you-named theory, but effective.

And also, some such inspiration of very seasoned people experienced community organizers, who used to come and visit from the US where they were running amazing campaigns. And you know, for example, in the Southern Western State of the US where Mexican immigrants were so powerless, but through this approach had organized to get, you know, really basic facilities like you know, sanitation and waterworks and street lighting and basic things, which in these communities and, you know, the world richest country, The United States were not given at all in immigrant communities and some western states, but also in Chicago and other places. So, yes, it was a bit of a turning point I suppose, in my life. Well, I think you're right, that there were things in my upbringing and my education, which laid the foundation and made me at least spot the opportunity and grasp it when I came across that work.


Ben Yeoh: (09:11) And now at ShareAction, you've got a pretty robust theory of change as well. And part of what appeals to me about it is that there's a sort of element of ownership and direct democracy through it, which is an idea that goes across a lot of different sort of systems or power systems. Would you maybe articulate how you're thinking about ShareAction theory of change today, whether it's actually, maybe has it been this kind of the same routes over the last 10, 13 years, or has it kind of evolved a little bit in terms of thinking about using all of shareholder activism, the vote and influencing this kind of systemic change, but through a kind of personal change in the agency, although, you know, you guys do group up as a kind of Shoal of fish to influence companies?


Catherine Howarth: (10:06) Yes. So, I mean, well, the thing that attracted me to the work even around the finance industry and the corporate sector is that without doubt, you know, companies shape our world, day in day out and the allocation of capital into companies, therefore, shapes our world. But what's interesting about the corporate form is that it is backed by origins, quite democratically organized, so one shares one vote. And that goes back to the fact that people who originally put capital to work in companies wanted their interests represented, wanted to be able to hold directors accountable, but good stewardship of that capital and for the protection of their capital. So those were very kind of rational reasons to sort of establishing the foundations of corporate governance, and to ensure that if you put money to work in a company, you had the right to ask some questions about the directors in turn up at an annual general meeting.


But of course, a lot of those rights sort of almost with the dominant defined, and particularly in an era of institutional investment becoming so dominant where, you know, big pension funds, whole blocks of shares, and have a very un-relational approach with companies oftentimes very unusual for the trustees of the pension scheme to have any interaction at all with the corporate boards or anyone involved in the companies. This all leads to lots of chains into mediation, and lots of institutional structures that have got in the way of the kind of more democratic and relational culture, which I think business began with certain aspects of business balance. So, what we've done at ShareAction is just kind of make use of the rights that exist for shareholders to go and ask questions.


And also, what we've done is quite systematically think about who wields power in capital markets, which are fast institutional investment organizations, big fund managers, and so on. And then try to do it quite simply, but very useful tricks like ranking them against each other in terms of how responsible they are as stewards of capital and how much interest they take in the social-environmental performance you know, hundreds of companies that sit in their portfolios. And until fairly recently the investment world turned a pretty blind eye to corporate social environment performance, but that's changed very dramatically quite fast. Now I don't want to be too positive, I think it's a work in progress, but I think that partly because we face such terrifying risks, like runaway climate change and you know, chronic loss of species and, other challenges that are beginning to kind of driven a lot by business behaviors, but they're also beginning to bite business on the bum in terms of the potential financial impact of those things.


And so, for several reasons, the investment world is waking up; but one of them, I think, is that organizations like ours are doing a better job than needs to be done of holding accountable financial sector power for the influencing wheels on our world. And yes, so, I mean, those are some of the things that we get up to, and what's fun, I think is kind of combining, which is something we do, for example, through shareholder resolutions, providing the power of huge institutional asset managers and pension funds and so on, together with people that, you know, basically go out and buy a single share in a company, and then bring them together in these kinds of lovely, rule-based quite diverse coalitions to take actions; like filing shadow integration, which is an amazing right, that was again, really underused by starting to come back into its own where the shower wasn't company had the opportunity to take the initiative and put a proposition to management, and what we've been learning.


And by the way, this is all constant experimentation, and that's why I love the job, to be honest, is that it's like, you know, wildly free and we have a beer, oftentimes we surprise ourselves that it works by well. But, you know, just taking the initiative, putting these propositions forward, combining big investors with little, we live with people, and seeing what can be done to channel the power of business in a positive direction, because business shapes our world and it also shapes our world in ways that serve the public interest.


Ben Yeoh: (15:02) Yes. And I think that innovation on how to use the vote is amazing because in some ways it's almost like a direct democracy form. Imagine if you had it in a country, you know, you're putting forward your bill, and because you have a stake in say the country or the company you are being able to convince others or not to join you and then vote on it. And I think one of the great things about it is that the rights enshrined are generally also accepted by people who might on the one hand gone from a very safe, free-market point of view, because they've always said, yes, if you own a hundred percent of a company, you can do what you wish with that company, and then obviously in proportion. So actually, even someone not necessarily associated with this, like Milton Friedman was all about shareholder rights.


If you own it, then you can do what you wish for it. And the way of resolving what owners, when you have lots of different small owners of doing it is via this voting process, which is typically an annual process. I was intrigued by the work you've done on healthy eating and with supermarkets as an example of something, which seems to show a lot of innovation about how you can think about that. Would you like to maybe think… did that come about, because someone just had this idea, it's like, oh, how can we do systematic change on healthy eating? Well, you know, there are only a few supermarkets here in the UK. Maybe if we could influence them, we might make a lot of systemic change so that it comes across that. Or is it like a coffee conversation or sort of slowly dawned on people that there's this window or this door is opening up amongst corporates to listen to certain other ideas and let's push on that door?


Catherine Howarth: (16:49) It is a mixture of influences. So, I guess I've always been very interested in public health. And then I think this, like the reality, is that after years, or, you know, hundreds of years, or certainly in the last hundred and 50 human longevity has increased and life expectancy has grown a lot. But we are peeking out actually on life expectancy, and in fact, in UK women's life expectancy is beginning to turn down. And the reason for that is that we're eating unhealthy diets.; and the reason for that is that it is sort of cheap and easy to make profits in the food sector by selling foods that have high in sugar, fat, and salt. And, you know, collectively, even though we are so, you know, advanced supposedly, and our economy keeps growing, we are on a bit of a sort of self-destructing as far as human health is concerned.


And then, by the way, you know, when the long-pending pandemic is kind of all that is a fact that people that were, you know, obese and overweight and, or had other underlying health conditions, all of which are highly correlated with socioeconomic status were hugely more at risk of death and serious morbidity from COVID. So, we just felt like the moment was right to challenge the UK supermarket sector, which is a highly concentrated corporate kind of landscape with some very dominant players and, and Tesco is the largest of the lot and has 27% market share of grocery in the UK. And by the way, during the pandemic, all the supermarkets had been trading because they were allowed, you know, they were given special status because every other business had to look down because we do depend upon the supermarkets and supermarket workers were defined as key workers, essential to the collective wellbeing of the country, through the pandemic.


We just felt it was the right moment to say to Tesco, could you set some serious targets for shifting the health profile of people so they can get over the next decade. And bearing in mind that, you know, the minute you walked through the doors of a supermarket and your choices are being shaped and quite sophisticated ways by pricing, by the journey that you traveled through literally through the physical architecture of the shop by the placing of goods physically high to low, like, it is not like that. You just go in and you decide what you want, your choices are being shaped. So, there's no doubt that the supermarket sector can shape positively, our diets. And so that's what we asked them to do, and I thought that was brilliant was bringing investors together to do that.


Why? Because you have to think about the fiduciary duty of a large institutional investor, like a pension fund. Their duty is to invest in a way that delivers the best interest of the people on whose behalf they invest. So that's millions of working people who have retirement savings in these pension funds, and that obligation to invest in their best interest has been continuing to be defined quite narrowly as maximize the financial returns of the portfolio. But if the companies in the portfolio are operating in a way that undermines the best interests, the long-term security, the health and wellbeing, and the life expectancy of those people, then that's kind of a weird conundrum. And we thought that it starts, if this work on public health, it is a really interesting way of raising to debate about how did these big institutional investors define their core obligation to look after your interests?


Is it just maximizing returns in which case you want to invest in supermarkets that sell the maximum amount of profitable high in fat sugar and salt products; or is it more in the best interest of those millions of pension savers that you invest in supermarkets to make, you know, great profits? But don't do it at the expense of the health of the very people that those pension funds exist to the catheter. So, I just think it, it was a great campaign because it was successful and Tesco agreed to what we wanted. So yay not be like a successful campaign, but also illustrates and, and begins to honor us and much more interesting and deep debate about the purpose of big, powerful investment organizations and have this job in our society of investing money on our behalf and for our best interests; and where I think there's much scope to challenge the underlying premise and basis of a lot of that decision-making, and open it up in a way that does serve our collective self in our collective interests.


Ben Yeoh: (22:07) And how do you decide what sort of topics or areas to tackle? Because there is kind of so many. I mean, my reflection is the climate is very much in the news at the moment, and it's very good that a lot of people are working on it. But in some ways that leave the question of something like health, which has now also risen, it's something I've worked on for quite a long time. But arguably, for instance, this Tesco and health win, which has been a great win, has made a lot of short and long-term impact, which I think is kind of quite interesting; whereas arguably a lot of dimensions of climate, how should we put it? We're lagging, you know, as a collective, right? No one individual or fault on that. It'd be interesting to see how you'll think about some of these big topics. There are some frameworks like sustainable development goals, and there's a lot of things we can think about what's important to us, education, health environment, and things like that. I have no answer, I've just really intrigued as to how a great thinker like you might think about it.


Catherine Howarth: (23:18) Well, when we pick topics there are some key criteria, there are some pragmatic ones like ShareAction is a registered charity, so we have to find the money for everything we do. So, someone needs to be willing to fund it. That's why I'm pragmatic about the criteria there, but other things are really at work for us, we think about what to work on. First of all, will this build the movement for responsible investment? So, we know that to create systemic and positive transformational change in capital markets and capitalism and in the business community, lots of people need to be on board with that and need to own it, be excited about it. 


So, it's one thing to work on climate change, but it's great to also work on health because there are different people who've not liked them up when it comes to thinking about these things. And it's been amazing actually to see how on the climate agenda, climate activists have become so interested in what's going on in financial markets and how is climate finance being handled by big financial institutions and companies. But equally, I think there's great potential for the whole galaxy of people, but think about health, including everyone in working professionally in the health field, doctors, nurses, and community health practitioners, but also people who you know, patients and their families and so on. But for a whole additional constituency people who maybe aren't really like all turned on about climate change, but thinking about health to also start thinking quest and questioning the role of finance and capital markets and companies in shaping our health outcomes.


So, building the movement and growing always a bigger, more inclusive, and more diverse movement, people that find these things interesting and relevant to them is part of the criteria. And then the other one is where are the issues which start kind of, as I was talking about earlier, like nudged you into to a slightly deeper set of questions about the internal logic in capital markets and the purpose of large institutional investors and how they find their purpose, how accountable they are to their stakeholders, who they can see as their stakeholders. So that's another thing I think when our campaign is going well, there's a sort of like, you know, there's the drama of the campaign, a shareholder resolution it's quite immediate friendly. It's a bit of a fight between shareholders and management and it's fun and it's got drama. But there's something else going on at a deeper level, which it's raising some deeper questions and those are good campaigns that sort of deal with those have all those ingredients woven in.


Ben Yeoh: (26:15) How would you convince someone who's sort of open-minded, but say a little bit skeptical of either your theory of change or even some of the topics you're doing. So, someone, you'd meet, but be open-minded to try and convince them to your course.


Catherine Howarth: (26:32) So there are people that are complete enough to be skeptics and I think we can just not worry about those people. The people I'm interested in are the ones who are kind of nascent, but apathetic supporters. And because to create change, you do need a base of support, you need any deep support. And what you want to do all the time is switching on people who are kind of potentially engaged and supportive, but just a bit busy with something else, other causes other issues. And the art of this is partly due to switching people on intellectually, but much more experientially building a bigger, deeper, and more powerful base of support. And I think that you cannot worry about that, the real skeptics, because, you know, there are people that will always be just antagonistic. I'm not worried about them. What I am concerned about is building all support rounds, work, and tapping into the latent apathetic, silent majority.


Ben Yeoh: (27:46) I was reflecting just on that. I think at least that's where for me storytelling or narrative, I think you've touched on this is extremely powerful for people. Maybe it's a part of being humans. Maybe this is more sort of personal for me, but for instance, I've read quite a lot of Ursula K Le Guin, and I think from that my understanding of feminism, particularly when I was younger was probably most enriched by deep thinking about her work than maybe reading other articles in the newspaper; or, you know, or like sort of social critical theory of which it wasn't my thing, and wouldn't understand. So, I was interesting, what do you think that maybe narrative or story has a place for things within activism, or has it informed any of your work?

Catherine Howarth: (28:47) Well, that's a big leap away. Ben, you’ve got me into Ursula, K Guin. I never read any of her work.

Ben Yeoh: (28:52) Oh really! You are a latecomer.

Catherine Howarth: (28:54) And I know several all of her wonderful books, so, and I that's all about you. So, thank you. But how could we discover the right Ursula K Le Guin, and also some of her videos? She did some great videos, not totally unlike the format we're talking about today. A bit less of a conversation, a bit more just her, but like what an amazing woman, by the way, I'd love to have further conversation. Maybe we'll have this sign another day about the deep thinking you've done about her work because I just really gobbled up her books and thoroughly enjoyed the model. What should I put into deep thinking in any case? Absolutely storytelling is so important and it's partly the stories we tell collectively about the endeavors we undertake together, but it's also the stories that people start to tell about themselves when they are involved in the action.


I believe in the power of activism to start to kickstart a process whereby people tell a different story about themselves. And they tell a story about themselves as a protagonist that took on corporate power or took on, you know, political power. And it's really through action that we become who we are. And that kind of conscious action for the greater good is a particular type of action that's very profound for people. So, I think it's really important that community organizing was particularly good at this. And so, my kind of apprenticeship, which was 10 years long in community organizing before I came to this work; was a kind of foundation block of everything I try and do in some ways in ShareAction. It was particularly good at having people articulate, you know, how they feel about the action they've been involved in what it means to them, how it changes who they are.


And also cause them to reflect on stories about, we won this battle, you know, we run this campaign. That's exciting that forms part of the collective narrative, but that personal narrative piece is great too. And it's not just a story to tell about yourself, but it's also a story to tell about other individuals. So, one of my favorite stories is of a young woman who was a wheelchair user who came on some of ShareAction, kind of training in you know, the art of the good question that a company's annual general meeting. And she was a poet actually, and also a really good athlete and a wheelchair athlete, and just a generally kick-ass young woman, phenomenal. 

And she went to the annual general meeting of National Express; there was a bit of a moment, a bit of a hassle. There wasn't a disabled access venue by the way, so she had to kind of come in humiliating innocuous or service entrance. But she made it onto the floor there in general meetings. And she told her story about you know, standing at bus stops, this was the National Express and in a general meeting which is a big bus company in the UK, and about how you know, they wouldn't give her access onto the bus. And there would be, you know, we pushchairs and so on, which could be folded and they would give a priority over people, wheelchair users. And she told her story and she challenged the board and they changed the company's policy there and then because she was so compelling and it was her story. And then she got to tell the story of her AGM success. So those are the best, I think when people bring their own story to bear, and then it becomes a new part of their story that they got something changed, and then everyone could absorb that story, and off you go,


Ben Yeoh: (33:13) Yes, it becomes part of the… I always like to say, it's kind of the myths that we like to tell ourselves, you know, money is a human myth into subjective myths that we use for all of these things. And we have to tell ourselves the kind of new stories, the new myths in a good way for what we want to do. This might be a little bit micro, but it's just to occur to me in terms of what poetry has taught me, or at least when I was very young, I was taught by a certain brilliant Mrs. Howarth some poetry. And one of the things that she taught me was never to overuse adjectives and the power of the verb, particularly in poetry. I don't know. Do you have any micro thing or even micro thing about what humanities or poetry has taught you?


Catherine Howarth: (34:04) Gosh my mom, I’m so glad that my mom was your teacher, and I love the fact that you're so generous about the influence she had on you. And it's funny because she's 76 now, and she's still volunteering in primary schools, helping children learn to love poetry, which is lovely. And I felt very humbled by my mom's kind of grasp of poetry cause my own are quiet people. So, yes, I mean, I do draw on poetry here and there and I'm trying to get my children to engage in it. And the strange thing, they love poetry. They find it standardize the meter or something about it, taking my second son who's not amaze, you know, he's not such a keen reader, but he tunes into poetry.


I think we need more poetry in the world, that's all I can say. And I love that it's so informative to you, like a hugely successful fund manager and a figure in the finance sector and, you know, poetry is there in the background, staring it up and helping you so we should have more poetry and in all of activism. And it's, you know, some organizations draw on it more when we're not [inaudible 35:34]. And I'd say maybe one resolution out of today's conversation will be more poems.


Ben Yeoh: (35:40) Well, maybe [we need more poets] I already have a good friend who his other job, he always says, poets have two jobs. My poet friend Rishi Dastidar, I had a chat with him a few weeks ago, he always says poet slash something else, poet slash pension fund manager, poet slash copywriter, which has been there for a couple of thousand years. And he points out that poetry is still one of the oldest arts and it seeps into everywhere because of the power of the word or language things, which you might not call poetry. Now, if you think about it probably is poetry, but it's in disguise. We don't want to tell anyone that it is necessarily poetry. And I partly refer to it because like you were hinting to some of these seeds or sparks that we get when we're very young, somehow really grow with us.


And I've always said there have been quite a few handfuls of my teachers to be able to be grateful to them because they often really don't know the influence they have, you know. You're casting pebbles in the pond and they ripple or seeds through the garden and you don't know what, you don't know what takes root. And probably the vast majority of the time, you will never know that, you know, that's the nature of that. Yes, I think they are you know, very transformational; and I think it's the same with some of your work. You will you are planting a lot of seeds and ideas, and sometimes you have these big win-wins, but even when you don't have those successful campaigns, you are making well in the truth to power aspect, you're making powerful people think might not be able to convince them of that.

But then that next layer down in the ecosystem, you're making a lot of other people think whether they're engaged general public or other people within policymakers and things. And I think that's an area of influence, which is essentially impossible to measure. You'll never really be able to measure it, but I think it's increasingly, well, it's always been really important and I can see it and I can kind of see it in your work. And I see it broadly also in the work of teachers on this individual personal agency, but where there are systemic changes and, you know, translate it into policy speech. They've got this idea of this so-called Overton window, that this is a window where policy action can happen because it's acceptable to enough people. And a lot of this engaged activism or just talking about the challenges you know, we face without having to put you know, labels on it, moves where this policy or where the system can be. And I think we've seen this in social change movements throughout time, whether that's minority rights, disabled rights, women's rights, the ending of slavery, or all sorts of manners of things like that. And it's this, I don't know, intersectional between this.


Catherine Howarth: (38:32) Before we move on from teachers, I just want to ask if you've read the book Some Kids, I Taught and The Things They Taught Me. 


Ben Yeoh: (38:42) Yes. I have.


Catherine Howarth: (38:44) Such a good book isn't it?


Ben Yeoh: (38:45) It is brilliant. 


Catherine Howarth: (38:46) I loved it… that was a reading highlight for me of last year. And yes, it's about a poetry teacher and her reflections on…. as the title says, kids, she taught and the things they taught her and is just so wise and so funny and touching about children in different parts of the country, in different communities, and the cultures they came from. And that's just an absolutely beautiful book.


Ben Yeoh: (39:19) She had also very amazing parents did, I don't know if you read her essay, but they had traumas over the pandemic, both her parents passed. But if I recall correctly, her father on that certificate was what of died from a broken heart. There's an actual medical term for it, which is part of this essay she's written. So, if you haven't read the essay, it's incredibly moving.


Catherine Howarth: (39:49) I'll make sure to read that. That's a great recommendation. I was just going to tap into… you’ve mentioned about kind of the cycle of social change and movements for social change. And I talked about suffragettes at the very beginning of our interview. And one thing that was a real kind of an interesting eye-opener for me was one of the things that ShareAction tried to do is make a case that pension savers, a few, you know every working person is wanting the UK banks to pensions automatically roll in, which came in about 12 years ago or so. So, before that pensions were kind of a bit of a kind of slightly privileged workforce benefits for the more kind of mid-ranking employees, and middle managers and upwards. And then the government decided, gosh, everyone better be a pension say because we've kind of worried about the fact that the nation doesn't save enough and what would be the implications public finances.


So, everyone working in McDonald's, working cleaning jobs is now a pension saver; which means they have a stake in capital markets, they’re shareholders. One thing that ShareAction has been campaigning for fairly unsuccessfully, I would say. And we've had some… I mean, you've talked very kindly about our wins, but an area where I think we got a long way to go is in the kind of democratization of the system. And what we've been arguing for is that pension savers should have more rights to have a say about the policies that govern the investments. They should have access to information about what holdings the money is put into, and how votes were cast at company annual general meetings by the fund managers that invest on their behalf. Just to open up space a bit so that the actual real people whose money is having a little bit more agency and opportunity to question and so on.


And so, we've been making that case for a long time, and I've been kind of keeping a little track of the arguments that have put up why that's not a good idea. I need it to perfectly mirror the arguments that were way by why women should not have the vote over a hundred years ago. It's like, well, you know, they wouldn't know what to do with that information. They wouldn't know. They're not interested in, you know, all these arguments, which exactly give me some why your women shouldn't have a vote because they wouldn't know how to vote sensibly. After all, there are only women and they're not educated, which is basically about ordinary working people and why they're there. They couldn't be let into the mysteries of investment management and capital markets, and they're not interested again. And so, it's just been so interesting that I think these movements to democratize and open up spaces of power, whether it's capital markets today, which let's face, it is an incredible nexus of power in the 21st-century world, or a hundred years ago, parliament and women having the opportunity to elect people to represent in parliament.


It's just the same set of arguments. Why not? And I find that interesting as to why we shouldn't give up and why probably people look back and say, of course, people should have had more opportunity to have a say and be part of the story. But that's not the way the world looks at it right now, and particularly the professionals that are in charge of our money.


Ben Yeoh: (43:36) So I think a lot of the philosophical challenges are essentially smokescreens. I don't think they hold up if you poke them not even very hard at all; like we're saying your analogies to the women's vote. But I do think there is an issue of who would pay for a lot of this and some of the infrastructure issues. But I think that hopefully, it should be a diminishing problem because of where technology can come in. So arguably 20 years ago, if you had to do this by paper and post, you would probably quite have strong, bureaucratic, sludge money arguments on the other side. But I think there are an apple two or things coming through that, and actually, there's quite a powerful, other theory of change about how transparency can breed positive things for the system. Partly whether you view that through a check and balance, you know if you look back at the pandemic if we'd had more transparency on government decision-making and policy because you had outside experts look at it, our decision-making arguably could have been better. And then there are these other arguments like you say, about the rights of what people could do with that information. And that's the kind of wisdom of the crowd idea when they have that information out in the domain is usually pretty powerful.


So, I would be hopeful, but I do think there is an issue around you know, none of the incumbents particularly want to stump up any money for it. So, unless government either does or forces that it's less likely to be able to happen because there is a reasonable amount of money issue, but there are a lot of other second-order benefits for building up. Some of that infrastructure of saying who's got votes and rights and things, and particularly if part of the theory of the world is that the corporate form or the ownership of the corporate form is becoming a more powerful stakeholder in the world, or is recognition of the power that it wields, then having transparency into who ultimately owns or is voting or saying on that power, then becomes more important. 


And then that will allow at the moment that I think there is a clause in the system as to, you know, if you own a tiny piece via an intermediary and another intermediate and another intermediary being able to get your vote, which ultimately you do own, although you might've delegated it to somebody else to get that back you know. There's a plumbing kink to do that. And that would take this infrastructure charge, but I do think there was a case that you could make to government and the powers that be to do that, to get that through,


Catherine Howarth: (46:33) They will, as I said, at the very beginning, you know, companies were designed democratically to start with. But then we didn't have intermediaries, people put money in, and they were rich people. And they insisted on having rights to hold accountable directors. And now we have poor people who own shares, with no right to hold anyone but themselves to be accountable. So, there's a way to go, I think technology is a friend here, but I mean, that's a bigger, deeper conversation about, is technology a force for good or, you know, inherently progressive. I think it all depends on the ethical and human and power-related structures we put around them and, and the governance. And so, the technology is certainly there to do this. But you're right, that I think large pension funds were like to volunteer, the argument will have to be made in parliament; and in policy circles that almost, you know, having put in place automatic enrollment and enable millions of people to have a stake in the system, which, you know, is in a way a kind of right-wing politician dream.


I don’t think, you know, Mrs. Thatcher was always very keen on this idea of shareholder democracy and that's right because it should be. Capitalism should be opened up for everybody and should operate in everyone's interest, but it won't operate in everyone's interest until we have more accountability in democratic structures properly and all that. And we don't have those yet.


Ben Yeoh: (48:15) So I think there's a really good analogy on that for making the case, but he kind of housing and this, you know, rightly or wrongly, you can have this notion of like right to own your house. I don't know whether that's true, but obviously in England, in the UK, there was a definite philosophical movement on that. You could say whether it started with that or not. Well, let's see, that's the kind of piece of capital asset idea which readily translates to this cousin idea of owning a piece of a company with where you are. And particularly now with automatic enrollment. I think this technology piece is really interesting as well, because for instance, the information that we give to the live technology players, it's kind of amazing. And we sort of semi willingly goes into that. But the transparency or the data that we're prepared to give to the government, the narrative around that seems to be much more worried.


So, we're much more worried for instance, about giving up some NHS data, which is meant to be used for our good. Then we are giving quite frankly, you know, the technology companies know vastly more about us than the NHS ever would. And then the NHS my belief would govern much better as you can argue about that, but you would put these things in place and be much more accountable. And it seems to me that the system, whether that's government or civil society or whoever hasn't made the case of the people saying, we will use your technological health data for good; we will be able to save costs and make you healthier. And which case data transparency in the technology is going to be a force for good, rather than just sending you angry memes on social media, which is not doing you any good, but somehow you think you're going to give away that data for free. And I think there is this similar thing if you get people to say, look, you own a piece of the supermarkets and these companies and things, and you can use your voice for an act of good in that sort of same way, but there's a kind of more foundational… I wouldn't necessarily say educational message, but a new story and narrative around how technology is enabling you to deck that. And I think maybe the stores in… go on,


Catherine Howarth: (50:30) Well, I was going to say it's very much the same corollary is what I was saying about helping supermarkets. So, the role of large institutional investors that hold supermarket and technology stocks on your behalf, if their only obligation and their purpose are that absolute, just simply maximize the returns from those stocks. Then in the case of the technology companies or the supermarket companies, who’s behaviors, having quietly significant impacts on all of our lives. You just haven't got those questions being asked by the shareholders who act on our behalf. And this is why I think we do need to open up this debate about the legal obligations of institutional investors and the purpose of their work in relation to the well-being and benefit of the people on whose behalf they act, And enable, legitimize that institutional investors can ask questions of technology companies about whether their policies and practices are beneficial to the people who own the stocks. So, it’s just an interesting space.


Ben Yeoh: (51:49) As you talk that maybe this is a line of work or maybe it goes more into sort of client earth and things, that there isn't being a really good test case for a very long time to redefine fiduciary duty for today. And I think there would be… I can't think of it, but I think there would be a very strong case if we came up with saying that it's shifted from this narrow idea of money to what it might be for broad stakeholders; because we're relying on essentially case law. And in fact, the original case law for prudent man goes back to I think something I'm slightly miss-telling it, but something like a horse and cart incident in the sixteen hundred you know, where this was based that there hasn’t been any clarification.

And now for those listening in, there is quite a lot of work being done with this. The lawyers Freshfields have put out a new report in association with the UN PRI, but that's based on a kind of legal understanding where of this. It hasn't been ratified by any case law or any actual judge precedence, even though there's QC and council. So, people are always a little bit wary because it hasn't been tested by the system. And unfortunately, you can't just ask the system, what do you think? But I think there would be some interesting, I mean that extends to some of the climate mitigation, you see worldwide using some of these principles, and I think there is that. And there was in the UK basis, a little bit of case law to do with what the law society has said about how we can choose investments or not, but it hasn't gone to the kind of what I call the steel man argument of sort of saying like, well, if you do something which you can definitively show is bad for a majority of people. I can't necessarily think of what it is, maybe a climate-related or something then actually does your fiduciary duty extend when you can see that those same people are the stakeholders that you're representing should that somehow take precedence, but it would in my view, and you can see how you can make the legal arguments around that. It would have to be retested today with how we can view the world today, as opposed to where the case law is, which has hundreds of years old.


Catherine Howarth: (54:04) Well, you could do it through case law or you could do it through legislation. I mean…


Ben Yeoh: (54:10) You could do it through legislation.


Catherine Howarth: (54:11) Even if we have legislators that we elect is that they write laws that are for the common good, and we need to re-write laws. ShareAction has published a model for the parliament which we call the Responsible Investment Bill, which sets out a new definition of investors' legal that encompasses this concept of… there's not a phrase we use in it, but kind of maximizing shareholder welfare instead of just maximizing shareholder wealth. When you go back to Milton Friedman and his arguments, which you cited the very beginning about, you know, the purpose of the company is to maximize. Well, if you just substitute that for maximizing welfare, then you immediately get into a world where companies have to think about whether their own and in a world of mass participation in pension funds, the public good is almost the same as the welfare of the millions of people who have slithered a little stake in, you know, hundreds of the world's biggest companies whose actions do need to serve the public interest more than they perhaps do at present, certainly when it comes to the climate crisis. But, certainly, I think also when it comes to the public health challenges we face today. 


Ben Yeoh: (55:28) And that is not too far in extension for what some of in Milton Friedman’s actual papers, where he would argue if you look off to your stakeholders and its wealth-generating, he has no issues with those externalities for that. So obviously this is a slight step further, but it's not too far away from some of his original assertions, particularly if you put it in his place and time for what they were debating.


Catherine Howarth: (55:55) Indeed and a lot of what he was interested in was some disciplinary management. They shouldn't be bettering their interest, and I'm all in favor of that. So, you know, I don't think I'm very far from Milton Friedman. 

Ben Yeoh: (56:10) No, and it's kind of surprising when you get back to some of what he was dealing with business [ ]. Also, at the time, there was a lot of how would we put it, cronyism, which was what he was kind of more worried about than some of these other aspects. 


So, one of these things so finally on the big picture before may be dwelling on a couple more kind of quicker things is it touches on this, and I'm interested in what you think, which is essentially this debate or conflict to some degree. I think there's maybe less conflict than sometimes between essentially de-growth ideas, for want of a better word, like techno-optimism ideas or growth ideas. And I guess one of the big challenges, and we sort of said this, you know, can we use technology for good? Is that it does seem probably to a lot, but not all economists that to deal with poverty, whether that's in poor countries between countries or within countries, when you look at the deep or in a wealthy country, like the UK that they will need to have growth really to be able to achieve that. And so, we can talk about equitable growth as opposed to the problem with some degrowth, as it's quite hard to separate within that. And you're not going to be able well, according to the technique, optimist idea the innovation and the technology to face some of these things like health and climate would not happen without growth. On the other hand, like some elements, degrowth is kind of a sort of common sense. So, for instance, food waste, but, you know, in the sense that why would we waste food that you don't have to at seems common sense, but there's a very strong de-growth idea, right? Don't use more than you would do in whether that's the food supply chain or even food on the table. So, I was wondering whether this intersects with any of your thinking.

Catherine Howarth: (58:10) So I'm not a degrowth person, I'm a better growth person. And you know, I think gets back to the idea that we just talked about maximizing welfare rather than just maximizing wealth. We do need a clever version of GDP. And lots of clever people, far cleverer than I, but they had sort of working out how we can do that, and I hope we make some progress on it. 


Ben Yeoh: (58:36) New Zealand might be getting there, which is also why it's flowing into their policy. They've got a kind of living budget idea, which is trying to put in forms of natural capital and therefore policy flowing from that. So maybe starting to happen in a couple of minutes. 


Catherine Howarth: (58:51) Yes, I mean, we're going to need lots of experimentation. And I've had that meeting and having looked at that, and I'm not surprised. I think they have that incredibly brilliant leader. But yes, we need to grow within the safe space for human flourishing. And at the moment, the model of growth we've got is, you know, to use the phrase I used earlier, it's biting us in the bum. It, it is putting us at risk, but of course, we need growth, particularly in parts of the world where people are still suffering, totally unacceptable standard of living, and don't have the absolute necessities. So, a hundred percent I'm all for that. Yeah. So, I


Ben Yeoh: (59:43) Yes, so I mean… I have to say currently where the pandemic is, and what the UK has done on international aid has recently made me a little bit less hopeful. Because within say a progressive better growth agenda, you would want economic growth, technology transfer, and these types to poorer countries, whether you want to invoke what's happened in the past or not even just looking at today, partly because of positive spillovers as well as defeating externalities. And, you know, something like climate externality or pandemic externality, you can't hope to solve without bringing along poorer country counterparts. So that's maybe a little bit less hopeful, but with some of these other things more hopeful. So, I didn't know whether we wanted to end at least on the sort of macro section with anything you'll be doing and potentially more hopeful or any comments on the gap, what we did, what specifically on the UK and international aid. But, the fact that in general, richer nations are not helping poor nations through the pandemic in a way which makes if you were, not that we would have it, but if you had a global government, you would not be doing this right, because it's not a real win-win for everyone.


Catherine Howarth: (1:01:11) No, I mean, you know, vaccine nationalism is the perfect embodiment of everything wrong; just because it's so short, sighted apart from anything else that we will get a new variant of COVID if we don't vaccinate the world at speed. So, the idea that you warn them in your little island is just so foolish and so lacking in moral integrity. The thought I just can't bear it, but anyway, that's the world we're in. Where do I see some hope? Well, I mean, it's one of the reasons the last 13 years at ShareAction has been so fun and joyfulness is that I see, you know, bits and pieces of much more enlightened thinking at work in corners of the business community and the financial sector. And I think there are real limits to that; and I think as I've described earlier, it is critical that we have better and more structured ways of holding accountable people that wield significant power in capital markets and financial sector because their decisions and their policies have a huge impact on all of us.


That's why we're interested in the decisions that they make, but the potential for those decisions to be made well, and in the public interest exists. And I think the space of responsible investment is quite dynamic. And there's almost a bit of a race to the top going on with, and one can be very cynical and say a lot of it greenwash; but, you know, I do see a dynamic where financial services companies and investment firms are trying to out-compete each other in being good on ESG. Well, no way that would last, and also by the way, very interesting that you know, the Biden Administration, as I think seeing that caught up further. The Trump Administration was a break-off on some of that, but we're in a different era.


So, look, I don't want to be too cheerful because there's no consciousness about the world, but I also think people are starting to see that incredibly short-term approach to business management maximizations of profits, without any thought to the externalities created, and the impact of those externalities on the very people who own stock in your company. We were beginning to see through how that doesn't work and towards something better. 

Ben Yeoh :(1:03:45) Great. Well, let's end with this kind of short section on a kind of underrated overrated with a few quick-fire topics, and then maybe some advice to young people or young activists thinking. So yes, for overrated underrated we can try a few things, some of these might be obvious, I guess. So overrated, underrated cycling?

Catherine Howarth: (1:04:09) Underrated.

Ben Yeoh :(1:04:10) underrated green, good to go around, although maybe don't have the infrastructure


Catherine Howarth: (1:04:16) It’s so delightful to cycle. It's so incredibly productive and efficient and use of time and you can't catch COVID on a bicycle. So, like all of these reasons it's, it's smarter, it's nicer and it's healthier and it's also cheaper. So, team cycling.


Ben Yeoh :(1:04:36) Great. Modern art, maybe art in general.


Catherine Howarth: (1:04:41) Overrated. No, arts in general. Okay.


Ben Yeoh :(1:04:44) So modern art, overrated, art in general underrated. 


Catherine Howarth: (1:04:47) Yes. What do you mean by modern art? Do you mean modern painting?


Ben Yeoh :(1:04:56) Can be more precise. Let's say modern painting? I guess I was maybe slightly hinting towards these digital assets that we've got now that you have that might've heard. I mean, that would be the pinnacle of very modern art so-called NFTs. 


Catherine Howarth: (1:05:10) I’m like we don't fall, which I am treating, so yes. Okay. Overrated


Ben Yeoh :(1:05:16) Carbon tax or price or something like that?


Catherine Howarth: (1:05:20) Underrated. We need one. 


Ben Yeoh :(1:05:23) Yes, I completely agree. And I think this idea of carbon, whatever you want to call it, tax dividend, and then actually giving that back to the people, I would probably make it means-tested, but even not. So, some universal benefit, like a sort of child benefit idea would go down because it's although on the one hand the tax might be considered thought of as anti-progressive, the dividend itself would be progressive and more than weigh that out in my view. But anyway, we're not there yet, but maybe. Living in cities or urbanism? 


Catherine Howarth: (1:06:03) Great question, because the pandemics shifting that. I love it. I'll just speak for myself. It's not underrated for me. But I love a visit to the countryside. 


Ben Yeoh :(1:06:18) So maybe correctly rated. I think they're going to have a hard patch now, but I do think they probably have more solutions than problems, which is maybe no good.

Catherine Howarth: (1:06:29) Yes. I know I'm a dedicated city dweller and I think life can be beautiful in cities, but we do have to work hard on, you know, we all need green spaces. There's lots of potential for green space in cities. We can be way more creative with rooftop gardens and all that. We do need to probably fewer cars, more trees, and happier cities


Ben Yeoh :(1:06:54) Agreed. Okay. using your vote?


Catherine Howarth: (1:07:02) Overrated in the UK because we need electoral reform, but I think you will have heard loud and clear that I'm a Democrat and believe in democracy in the course of the conversation we've had. So yes, underrated probably in general and the world. Yeah.


Ben Yeoh :(1:07:25) Yes. Or at least underrated at the company level. I broadly agree. I think if you're a very powerful, notable person, then maybe, you know, your vote, you don't think has as much power as it should do from your power in the world. But for the average person and in the UK, a lot of people aren't voting, and so their voices aren't being heard. So, for the average person, I think it's underrated, maybe overrated in some of these niches. And, the last one for this one would be… oh, actually I had one more before the last one, we touched on.  Which was remote work, which you sort of touched on with the other things.


Catherine Howarth: (1:08:10) Underrated. It was underrated so much by me. I was a real like got to be in the office person. And I can thank the pandemic for the fact that I've transformed my view, but that's because I think video calling technology is just incredibly marvelous and clever. And I just think it surely signals a productivity revolution just because less versus like running around on airplanes and won't be doing that anymore. And I think it's lovely to be at home, you can pop out and have lunch, you know, in your…


Ben Yeoh :(1:08:53) Very positive for your local communities actually, there's that whole community thing.


Catherine Howarth: (1:08:57) It’s great. There's a good piece in the Ft on it today, actually by finding FICO anyway, I'm fine. 


Ben Yeoh :(1:09:02) I agree. I think the two caveats are… there is a specific value in face-to-face, but I think we will be able to do that mostly remote or a hybrid anyway like might meet up that they don't go away


Catherine Howarth: (1:09:17) To me I feel like we're having a lovely conversation. I think it would be that much better if we were breathing on each other, like…


Ben Yeoh :(1:09:26) We have an advantage that we've got, what you would call it, built up social or relationship capital. I do think if we, although having said that I have done some of these chats with people I've never met. So, like this philosopher in Utah talking about gamification and the benefits weigh that. So not only do we get all of the benefits and video, which are probably just as good. There's no way I would have been able to do that podcast without. So, I mean maybe you are right on that.


Catherine Howarth: (1:09:58) I am a fan of the handshake, I'm a fan of the hug, but I'm also a fan and we also really need to travel less and be with our neighbors more. 


Ben Yeoh :(1:10:10) Yes. So, I mean, and I think it will make go hybrid like let's have a lunch or dinner every three or six months and meet up and have fruitful conversations that way, where we need meet on things with our community. So, yes, I think remote work is going to work. The second caveat is it is really good for knowledge workers, but I think as we alluded to, I don't know how this is necessarily going to help people in warehousing or people where you still need physical infrastructure and wouldn't want them to be left behind in the way that their productivity might not change. But I don't know, see how that goes.


Catherine Howarth: (1:10:49) That’s great that we can. One of the things to come out of this pandemic is that we start to value those people more than we did. We talk about underrated, people who do the essential jobs, so underrated, and we need to, you know, give them more dignity, give them more pay, look after them, and acknowledge how critical they are. 


Ben Yeoh :(1:11:11) And to the extent that remote work can actually save some money from our knowledge worker part, then actually giving that to one of a better word, economist, speak again, giving you that to labour, as opposed to the capital knowledge part would seem to me to be a fair shift.


Catherine Howarth: (1:11:26) You know, what we need is a good, old-fashioned trade union, organizing all those roles. Any people have to get organized. No one's going to give them anything without them getting together and demanding it, but let's see, let’s hope.


Ben Yeoh :(1:11:39) Another theory of change, although like you say, legislation, you know, the minimum wage in the US argue one way or the other, but okay. The last one on, on this and then the advice would be having children. 


Catherine Howarth: (1:11:57) Underrated.


Ben Yeoh :(1:11:58) Yes. I agree underrated. I slightly flip-flopped on this, but I am now kind of firmly on the view on two or three things. One is, I think my children have taught me more than I've learned from many other routes. You know, some of this is thinking also about autistic thinking, but that generally. And also, because I kind of think where we are now, we're going to need a younger activated generation to get us out of the problems because I don't see it coming from that older generation. And actually, children are the ones who can do that for all of the reasons, curiosity, new ideas, and as you would hope, the younger generation always does things better as you expect than the older generation. And given where we are now, that we were going to need more of it than less of that. And that's going to have to overcome any of the other challenges that we're worried about natural environment things, which are there, but unfortunately, or fortunately, they're going to have to figure out those things. And we're only going to be able to do it with them and with that presence, as opposed to not, that's kind of where I've ended up on that.


Catherine Howarth: (1:13:04) Yes. I completely agree. Yesterday my son had his last day in primary school, my older son. It was an emotional day saying goodbye to his little mates, and it's a very multicultural school. The white children are a small minority of the class and they've had the most amazing education together for seven years. It's just a very small school, one for elementary, just thirty in his year group. And they've been on a little journey together for seven years in primary school. And they've learned so much about the world and are just amazed by how beautiful the education is they've had. He came back from school at age six to tell me all about the sustainable development goals. I was gobsmacked, you know, and they're enlightened. And they are learning about personal resilience, they are learning all these brilliant skills. And they are learning that not all is right about the world but, you know, they can do something about that and they must do something about that. And I'm just very impressed by the education my boys have had in the local primary school here. And it does make me hopeful and you're right, that kids are going to have to put things right. That we all, I was going to use a swear word, but…


Ben Yeoh :(1:14:25) I completely agree. And you know, I think I was taught about the ozone layer, but nothing around broad sustainability or any of these other issues, which we're now being taught. And I speak to senior managers today in something like healthcare, which is generally quite purposeful. And a lot of them say, yes, we fell into it. We didn't necessarily think about it you know. We could have gone into healthcare, we could have gone into advertising and we've ended up in a big biopharmaceutical company or medical technology company, but they're saying the generation Y or Z that they're speaking to are attracted to them because it is purposeful that they feel like, okay, this is how we're going to make an impact. And that's a generational sea change about what they're seeing. And then actually this goes into how you attract those sorts of people, you know, active people who are engaged, wanting to work in the more purposeful type of business, this idea that we can have tech for good or business for good as well. Great. So maybe ending on the final question would be, do you have any advice or thoughts for perhaps younger people or younger activists or people who are activists in general about what they could be doing in the world?


Catherine Howarth: (1:15:41) Wow. Well, I would say read a lot and not just on Twitter, try to read outside your bubble or social media or Instagram or whatever it is, read books and listen a lot, especially to people who are outside of your social groups. And try and get deeply into something, practice something, I don't know what it might be. Try and get good, get a little mastery at something, or a few things, keep moving, experimenting, I don't know. I haven't got any advice. I'm so humbled to face that question is just


Ben Yeoh :(1:16:30) That sounds like brilliant advice. Listen, read a lot, also think outside your box, be kind of constructively challenged by those who might not be quite like you or inside your circle, and therefore step outside of your comfort zone a little bit. I had an improv master talking about that in terms of that practice as well. And then I think this idea of deep mastery on something that you're interested in, you know, knowing something or to the extent that you can know a lot of things are helpful. Because I think nowadays if you have deep mastery of something, you can maybe apply it to the things you didn't think about. So, when you go outside your box, and then also if you're curious about whatever it is, and you have deep mastery of it, it's very satisfying for people to follow that.


Catherine Howarth: (1:17:25) And that might be karate, or it might be a flute, or it might be, you know…


Ben Yeoh :(1:17:32) Poetry, canoeing, hairdressing whatever it is.


Catherine Howarth: (1:17:35) Whatever it is.


Ben Yeoh :(1:17:37) In fact, the weirder, the better, maybe. Great. Well, on that note, I would like to thank you very much. It's been an amazing time.


Catherine Howarth: (1:17:49) Yes. That's great. Great, absolutely great. Ben, thank you so much for asking me to do it.


Ben Yeoh :(1:17:53) Thank you. If you appreciate the show, please like, and subscribe as it helps others find the podcast. 

In ESG, Investing, Podcast Tags Catherine Howarth, Activism, Investing, ESG

COVID, entering the end game as an endemic disease

July 24, 2021 Ben Yeoh
COVID-FT.jfif
  • COVID is going to be endemic. To have a sense of what that is like think: the common cold, flu and measles. 

  • In part this is because of vaccine hesitancy and higher virulence of new COVID strains 

  • This means in any 5 year period the chances of avoiding COVID is close to zero even if vaccinated. (You may well not have symptoms though).

  • Vaccination will make COVID infection for the vast majority like the common cold

  • But, significant groups eg elderly, immune compromised, diabetic etc. Will continue to have elevated mortality risk and even a minority of healthy individuals will die.

  • There will be long-term impairment from Long COVID. After effects of severe COVID infections that will place a minority of people in cognitive decline with “brain fog”. It’s uncertain if this will reverse as some suggestion we might have treatments that work (including vaccines themselves). See Lancet paper link end


Masks may have some defence against super spreading events and some indoor transmission, but over a 5 year period will not prevent inevitable infection. Part of their use would be indoors to protect unvaccinated or immune compromised.

 Near term, the range of plausible outcomes in the UK in the next 4 to 8 weeks ranges from mortality/hospitalisation wave overwhelms hospitals to the wave is manageable. Vaccines have impaired the link between infection and mortality, but unclear if it will be enough.  Very reasonable assumptions can see both scenarios. (I currently believe most regions will fall under manageable but some local areas with lower vaccinations may be very stressed cf. Missouri in US, Ed Yong article for Atlantic - links at end. I weight my belief about 60% and base it on looking at the Warwick models, the Imperial models and the work of James Ward (links at end). Anyone who has tried scenario modelling can see from these models that very small changes in assumptions are leading to very different outcomes. Also, that local factors will diverge greatly from national averages.)


If my outlook is correct this has implications on personal levels and medium term “new normal” living.

  • Boosters or regular vaccines (like flu) will be annual ( prelim Israel data is suggesting waning protection maybe after 6-12 months) events

  • if you are immune compromised you may want to consider asking for triple or quadruple boosters to try and ensure a response and if you are able to track t-cell memory or a more comprehensive protection test then do so.

  • Long COVID disease will have to be dealt with

  • a structural larger burden on healthcare systems is here to stay 

  • mental health resilience and related challenges will need addressing 

  • certain low friction public health measures eg masks indoors, might remain in some form

And so, overall as second order effects

-new ways of working are here to stay in some form 

-the value of giving people in person meetings will rise 

(And so my November post last year has held up well, except that the lab leak hypothesis is now maybe 50/50, IMO and also my list of 58 items that COVID will affect


Further general observations and notes:


Rich countries have not in particular helped poor countries very much. Some rich countries are even letting vaccines expire rather than sending abroad. (Note even recently expired vaccines probably work). This does not bode well fo other international co-operation challenges eg climate.


Vaccine hesitancy is not well understood by many. The vaccine hesitant are a mixed group of people often vulnerable, and there is certain analogy eg with remain vs brexit. Many remainers/vaccinated look down on brexiteers/anti-vaxxers without understanding the valid fears many in  this group has. Sure there are some crazies but it’s not everyone. And even the vaccinated have a right to fear side effects, even if extremely low risk. Again,  see Ed Yong in Atlantic, link end.


There is much we do not know and may never know. I was struck by an expert epidemiologist back in March 2020 telling me at a conference that we really don’t understand the patterns of many previous epidemics eg Spanish flu, Swine flu.  And for instance, no single factor, nor any easy combination of 2 or 3 factors can explain how the virus has impacted India. There is a complex interaction between genetics, age, health, gender (and factors like them) and immune cross-protection (eg previous colds), strains, and super-spreaders etc.  We don’t know why males are impacted more, why children are impacted less. etc.


It is mostly not in the remit for those in public to have the humility of being able to express “not knowing” and maybe the general public indeed favour certainty over uncertainty. Perhaps those who study and forecast complex systems like the weather or financial markets have an edge in that we know we often do not know. In any case, I am comfortable to say that is much we don’t know and won’t know.


And so, my overall conclusion is that this does likely end in….within the next year either you get the vaccine or you get the virus. And eventually you will get the virus any way… but without the vaccine your chance of a bad outcome (death, hospital, long COVID) is 10x to 100x worse.

Links:


At the complexity of COVID factors.

https://www.thendobetter.com/investing/2020/11/21/covid-why-so-many-are-mostly-wrong-or-only-a-little-correct


58 predictions of how life might change:

https://www.thendobetter.com/investing/2020/4/24/58-covid-predictions-over-the-long-term


James Ward is a mathematician and runs SEIR personal models. His Twitter threads are good.

https://twitter.com/JamesWard73


I base my view on his models as well as Warwick and Imperial. The easiest way to get to Warwick and Imperial are via the UK govt SAGE papers: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19#history


If you track the models for a while, you can see why the high estimates occur in Warwick and Imperial.


The Ed Yong story and science reporting is consistently very strong and human. https://www.theatlantic.com/author/ed-yong/

Lancet paper on cognitive impairments of Long COVID: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext#seccesectitle0013


In Health, Investing Tags COVID

Matt Clancy on innovation studies, progress and remote work

July 15, 2021 Ben Yeoh

Matt Clancy is a progress fellow at Emergent Ventures. He teaches at Iowa State University and writes on Substack a newsletter called New Things Under the Sun, which you should subscribe to if you are interested in anything innovation related. Matt has also synthesised many of the emerging studies on remote working. Transcript and podcast links below.

We discuss whether progress has been stagnating and the importance of moral and social progress as well as technological. 

Whether small team or large teams are better for invention.

How important are agglomeration effects and how a declining agglomeration impact might make the case for remote work stronger. 

The role of innovation prizes and patents for incentivising innovation and if copyright is too long. 

Whether innovation agencies (eg ARPA) are the answer and what Matt would do as an executive director of one. 

Differences between UK and US university systems and advice for young people. 

Contents

  • 01:51 Two waves of stagnation. Vollrath’s fully grown. Noah Smith on energy shocks.

  • 07:40 Recent stagnation potentially overstated

  • 12:36 Measuring general purpose technologies

  • 14:38 What TFP and GDP miss

  • 18:16 Consumer surplus, undercounting historic gains (Gordon)

  • 22:42 Social, moral progress

  • 27:07 Mindset, evolutionary biology theory of innovation

  • 33:57 Small teams or large teams for innovation

  • 37:39 Importance of combining technology knowledge

  • 45:14 Different incentive mechanisms, time horizons

  • 49:59 Funding new things

  • 55:35 ARPA, innovation agency models

  • 01:04:52 Importance of specialised knowledge

  • 01:09:22 Copyright length critique

  • 01:14:50 Pharmaceutical patents

  • 01:23:11 Under/Over rated. City Agglomeration 01:27:03 GDP as a measure 01:30:57 NFTs 01:34:17 Science Fiction

  • 01:37:52 Religion and Physics as an undergrad

  • 01:41:27 US vs UK university

  • 01:48:24 Remote work, current data

  • 2:01:23 Value of physical meetings

  • 02:03:37 Personal productivity

PODCAST INFO:

  • Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3gJTSuo

  • Spotify: https://sptfy.com/benyeoh

  • Anchor: https://anchor.fm/benjamin-yeoh


Matt Clancy on Innovation Studies, Progress, and Remote Work (unedited transcript)

Ben Yeoh (00:01): Hello, and welcome to Ben Yeoh chats. My personal podcast. If you're curious about the world, this show is for you. What's the future of remote work? How best do we spark and develop innovation? In this episode, I speak to Matt Clancy. We discuss how Matt is thinking about innovation, the censorship of work he's doing on what nurtures innovation, and the future of remote work. If you liked the show, please like, and subscribe as it helps others find the podcast enjoy, Hey everyone. I am super excited to chat with Matt Clancy. Matt is a progress fellow at emergent ventures. He teaches at Iowa state university and writes on sub stack a newsletter called new things under the sun, which you should subscribe to if you're interested in anything innovation-related. Matt has also synthesised many of the emerging studies on remote working. So, Matt, welcome.


Matt Clancy (01:00): Thanks for having me on, it’s refreshing to be here.


Ben Yeoh (01:04): Great. There has been plenty of debate as to whether innovation has been stagnating and whether it might now be rejuvenating to some extent, and there's this observation and several studies that showing or suggesting that it's costing more R and D dollars to achieve similar progress across several domains, such as pharmaceutical drugs, crop yield, semiconductor productivity, and that seems to hold, but there are counter-arguments around whether we're measuring the correct things. And I think Dietrich's Vollrath has attributed apparent progress a lot to human capital factors. What's your reading of the arguments? And do you have a sense about where we stand and how obvious this observation might be or not?


Matt Clancy (01:51): This is a huge topic. But so, there's kind of two waves of stagnation that people talk about. And there was the big stagnation, which was kind of starting in the seventies or total factor productivity is one way to measure. It was one of the people trying to measure the technological progress of the entire society. It's roughly a statistical way to pull out. I would say the extra oomph you get from the same number of inputs. And that was something that grew at a rate of 2.8% between 50 years around 1920 to 1970, maybe, and then it fell to 1.6% since then. And so that's sort of the big one because that compounds over time and it makes a big difference, but then there's been this sort of smaller mini stagnation since the two thousand. And 1.6 fell again. And where I stand is that I think that the significance of the big stagnation is real, but I think it's a little bit overstated for some reasons. I think the significance of sort of the litter stagnation since the two thousand is not really about technological progress slowing down. It's more about other things. So Vollrath has this really great book Fully Grown, and he really digs into a number of the second stagnation, a little stagnation, and it shows that you can really account for this without having to go to technology. It's kind of that old quip about you don't mention God in your explanations. I wasn't the car or something, and he's God, have no need for that hypothesis.


…does the same thing with this little stagnation. … if you look at declines in geographic mobility, the decline in the start and stop rate of firms entering exiting, you can account for most of this total factor productivity slowdown since the two thousands and a couple other things. And you don't really need to say anything, it's due to technology. And also, a big one is the transition of consumers from purchasing easily, products that are manufactured and are really easy to make them better and make total factor productivity better for making a TV and consumers are just buying less of that stuff and buying more and more stuff like services, healthcare and education and stuff, which is harder to advance. It's harder to improve the total factor productivity of those things. Think of daycare, my kids go to daycare and they're cared for by like one person for every four kids. And they're babies. And you don't necessarily want to have one person caring for 60 kids or something like that. Right? There's something about that person. So it's hard to improve the efficiency of labor in that sense. Anyway, we're spending more money on that stuff, because basically the other stuff is so cheap and we've gotten so good at making it. It can be the case that there was no slowdown and technological progress and making TVs or making computers, but we kind of satisfied our demands, we’re ok, these are great. And I'm going to use the money I saved instead of buying an even bigger TV, I'll buy only a little bit bigger TV and use the extra money on this other stuff.


And that means more spending is allocated to the slower-growing sectors of the economy. There may not have been a slowdown. It's just that we're spending more on the slower-growing sections. And so, it looks like a slowdown in TFP. That's a long-winded thing about the second one, but the first one you can't necessarily write it off using the same kind of techniques. And Noah Smith has this kind of interesting theory that it's all about the energy shocks in the 1970s. And that technology was on this trajectory up through most of the 20th century until the 1970s that was premised on using more and more energy to do more and more cool stuff to fly to the stars or robots and all sorts of stuff. And in the 1970s, the oil shocks made oil really expensive. And I think that there's this my working hypothesis and I haven't dug into it. This is the kind of thing where, it kind of qualitatively sounds like it could work, but I haven't dug into the numbers to see if it really can account for everything. But my sort of pet theory is that similar to Noah Smith is that oil shocks meant people felt we can't count on. They're just being abundant energy. And instead of diverting resources towards R and D, that's going to depend on there being abundant energy. We're going to divert R and D towards energy efficiency. And I think this created this big expectation. Scientists were just as productive as ever at figuring stuff out, but the kinds of things they were figuring out what the things that people had been conditioned to start to expect through movies and visions and extrapolating from trends.


And so instead of getting supersonic planes and space flight and stuff, we got energy efficient Peters or stuff that sounds lame, or there's this better installation, but there's this clip that the speed of travel across the United States hasn't sped up at all, but it's gotten a lot more energy efficient over that time. It's got a lot safer.


Ben Yeoh (07:39): Planes become safer.


Matt Clancy (07:40): It's has and so it's the future doesn't look like we thought it would because we were extrapolating and we sort of changed tracks. And so that's why I think that it's real, but also that it is a little bit over I don't know, like exaggerated, because I think the progress is real, but it's just the world feels qualitatively different when you have new kinds of products that you've never seen before doing a new kit with new capabilities, versus when you have your existing products being more efficient and safe it just doesn't feel necessarily things are advancing at the same rate because you're not being surprised and wow, but I don't know if that necessarily, I wouldn't necessarily think the second kind of innovation is any less important. My take is that the energy shacks grant set us on a trajectory that was different. And so it doesn't look like we expected it to, and then on top of that, there's this period of probably inefficient research or where R and D wasn't producing technologies as quickly as it had before, because they had to sort of retrain, rebuild up the knowledge set to do this new type of on R and D that was promised on different things than abundant energy. And that meant people weren't as productive until they sort of rebuilt the knowledge base to where it was for energy efficient. So there's this famous paper by Daron Acemoglu about climate change and how we need to subsidize technological progress in addition to doing a carbon tax.


And he sort of talks about how R and D for fossil fuel-based transportation have continued all along internal combustion engines get better and better and better. And as they get better and better and better, it gets harder and harder to switch to energy-efficient stuff, because there's going to be if the technology is not at that level, then there's this big step down in living standards as we transitioned to this other thing. And he is talking about how you need to subsidize that other technology field to sort of catch up to providing the same capabilities that we can get from the fossil fuel-derived stuff. And there's a role for subsidies in addition to just carbon taxes to doing that. And I think it's the same idea. And then the last part is just that I think people have this bias towards things that were better when I was younger.


Ben Yeoh (10:17): Right, yes.


Matt Clancy (10:17): That's just this continual, that's a sort of this under [Inaudible 00:10:21] [Cross-Talk 00:10:21] in the background. 


Ben Yeoh (10:24): Great. Well, that's raised a load of interesting thoughts which we can discuss. So one is on a fact we spoke earlier to Anton house about the difference we put on incremental innovation versus transformational. And I think you're saying incremental is kind of undervalued. And the second is I think what I would think of as what some people might call the Baumol effect, this idea, like you said, on childcare, which would be the same for waste services, arguably the same in some big sectors like healthcare and education, you want teacher ratios and doctor ratios, you can't scale that it's gone, it's can't scale that much further. And then a little bit, I think would be really interesting on that climate fossil fuel piece, because the data I've seen suggests that for instance, the R and D part looking at renewable energy worldwide, both public and private has only been around the order of $15 billion, which is a real tiny drop in the ocean. We spent about probably 2 trillion orders of magnitude on R and D last year and much more on fossil fuel, R and D like you say, I think at least 10 times more, whereas renewable energy pieces are only 15. I'm kind of interested though, I guess, in two parts on the measurement things how do you think this accounts for these kinds of more general-purpose inventions or not, I'm really intrigued by, for instance, a double-blind trial design. So these are kind of what you might call RCTs or whatever. And I'm interested in a couple of ways because one is in theory, we could have invented them a lot earlier. I think actually, even in ancient times, a couple of empires had this, but it didn't stick. And then even famously when it was kind of reinvented around the time of trying to eradicate scurvy with ships going, they kind of lost it a couple of times before it stuck. And then it started in medicine and now is in economics and all over. And I was wondering about how effective you think that those general-purpose things go into these measurements and the second. Actually, why don't you start on that one?


Matt Clancy (12:36): About how you measure these general-purpose technologies, that's one reason that people like things like these really big aggregate measures, just real GDP per capita or total factor productivity, because the hope is that all that stuff spins out into very easy rather than trying to figure out exactly what the benefit of say double-blind testing is, you're just like, well, eventually it ends in better knowledge, which lets us develop better pharmaceutical companies. And that gets reflected in their sales that gets reflected in real GDP, real GDP per capita. And, that's kind of the argument for these really big aggregate ones is that you don't have to get into the nitty-gritty of thinking of all the different ways that any one invention could have positive effects, but then the downside is that it's so far removed. And also, that there are lots of other things that can affect those measures than just the quality of knowledge. And so, it's a real problem. And in terms of the benefits of RCTs or double-blind testing, I guess, I think that's a really interesting problem too, how would you measure the gains from that? I mean, you would look at if I was going to pick a domain for one, so medicine and you'd look at kind of the quality of the trajectory of improvement in diseases that use this method versus ones that don't, that might be one hypothetical way to do it.


Ben Yeoh (14:10): Sure.


Matt Clancy (14:10): But in general, I think it's real.


Ben Yeoh (14:12): Arguably you don't have any modern medicine, so no pharmaceuticals would exist without this. Because you wouldn't know whether they work sort of. So that is essentially all of the medicine doesn't exist without this one general purpose. And then actually it spills over into many other things that could have started in medicine, but obviously, you have it in these other things. So intriguing. Do you think TFP actually accounts for that or does it miss something?


Matt Clancy (14:38): I mean, TFP and real GDP per capita, they both all kinds of, the things they miss are things that are not captured in transactions because ultimately, they derive their value. So if double-blind testing develops better medicines, then people are willing to pay more for it, or even if it has this indirect effect where they live more and then they're able to produce more economic value through their lives that would get caught, that would sort of be in there. But the satisfaction that you get from being alive or from being able to see grandma for another 20 years, that is just missed from these figures. And so, it's a problem. What people sometimes say is well, if it's a problem, hopefully, it's not a problem that changes its intensity over time, because then you can, at least still, you can then add tack on an extra 50% in value. But since it's constant through time we can still look at the trends we have. I don't know. I mean you have to make, for any specific case, you can probably make arguments, whether that's sensible or not. But I do think this idea that double-blind testing can be lost and it's an old, easy-to-understand idea about how come people didn't do it. I think it kind of emphasizes the value of good measurement for just innovation. If you want to facilitate incremental innovation, being able to detect a 3% improvement is really important. Because otherwise, if there's a lot of noise people will just forget it and then nothing gets, we don't build on anything. You don't, we just get stuck trying new things and abandoned them and trying different things instead of keeping the ones that work and then getting 3% better every year.


Ben Yeoh (16:32): That makes a lot of sense. And I guess you partially answered one of my follow-up thoughts would be on one aspect of that. So I'm quite intrigued by pain or pain control. So because actually, it doesn't cost very much now for pain control. So morphine or even headaches, aspirin cost very little. But if you ask people, the utility is quite high to not suffer from headaches, even though we don't pay very much for it in dollars. And then actually you can take it to an extreme where today and arguably say for the last 50 to 70 years, you can now spend the last month of your life if you've got some terminal illness, pain-free. More or less pain-free because you could be morphine or something that. And if you were to ask people and some people do, would you exchange half your fortune or even your entire fortune to now be able to die pain-free in the last month of your life, a lot of people are kind of saying yes, and your family around you, knowing that you can be pain-free is incredibly valuable. And I can understand that's one single step up because we're not going to end that. But I am interested because I'm not sure it is constant over time, although I have no idea how you'd measure it, it seems to me enormously valuable that now for quite a lot of humanity for the rest of time, more or less we can die pain-free I did. That's kind of an unbelievable amount of value, which is not captured in any of these measurements. Is that the kind of correct way of looking at it or are there more complications about how we see value or I guess progress in the wider sense?


Matt Clancy (18:16): I think that what you're getting at is sort of the difference between consumer surplus, which is the gap between somebody's willingness to pay and what they actually pay and then what they actually pay. And in a perfectly competitive market, the price something is charged as the marginal willingness to pay at the last person or whatever, but there are all these other non-marginal people who are driving enormous benefits from it and sometimes you hear. I haven't heard people talk about it in the sense of alleviation of pain. And I think that's a really good example, but it is something that people have wondered a lot about in terms of the quality of digital goods. the value of the internet basically is people don't spend very much, there are still costs associated with it that show up in GDP, transactions that are conducted over the internet advertising that is spent. They spend more on ads if they think people are going to spend more on time, which is in some very indirect way a signal of the value people gets from being online, but it's very indirect and it's, and there have been estimating that the value people derived from say Facebook is I think at the median value in surveys and auctions, where they do these experiments, where they're going to actually pay people to delete their Facebook account. And the median willingness to pay is over a thousand dollars. Maybe that's the mean, but anyway, it's really high. And obviously, Facebook for most people is free. And I think that the ads per person that are spent on Facebook are way under a thousand dollars too. People have looked into trying to say, well, maybe this mismeasurement is why we seem to have this little stagnation since two thousand.


And the sense I get is that most people think that that doesn't really seem to work. And Robert Gordon who wrote this famous horizon fall of American growth book that sort of surveys, the history of innovation and technological change in the United States, going back to 1850, also talks about these uncaptured games. And I think he would argue something, well, the gain from morphine is a lot bigger than the unmeasured gain we get from pain alleviation and morphine, or whatever is much higher than the unmeasured gains we get from the internet. So he would argue that it makes the case stronger for a slowdown, he emphasizes things, people used to wear clothes that were just really uncomfortable and scratchy, and that was their whole lives. And people didn't have air conditioning, you have to live in the ambient temperature. And we don't in the developed world. We don't think about these costs anymore. And those gains were not the full value people were willing to get. Those were not necessarily captured in the GDP and ways of measuring total factor productivity were a lot shakier back then too. So he argues that we are undercounting the gains in the past if anything.


Ben Yeoh (21:24): That makes sense. Maybe a question we will probably not quite ever fully answer, but I can see those arguments, maybe taking one, why is the step touching perhaps into philosophy what do you think about other aspects of progress, which we might think about as progress, but what doesn't necessarily square into innovation? So I'm thinking about social and, or maybe moral progress, maybe most obviously seen for things like say women's rights or minority rights all going back in time even to slavery, where you get a consensus today generally that's better and therefore quite valuable, particularly for those groups say women's and minorities. And again, I guess this is something which generally doesn't go into GDP, although there probably is a GDP element by getting women into the workforce or TFP, generally think there are some aspects of progress and actually the arguments that some of those harder to add to ascertain parts of progress. I guess gay marriage for people who want that now, which is on the increasing rates of a moment, they are seeing some progress and therefore some innovation. Would you put that within the scope of kind of progress or within that, or is it just too far outside what we can measure?


Matt Clancy (22:42): No, I certainly think that in some ways that's sort of the most important types of progress. This kind of progress is ultimately probably more important than a lot of material progress that's made. But it's definitely not captured in GDP. And that's a problem. One way that you can try to get around that is to try to use, I don't know, the measure of, people do try to do these indices of inequality, for example, where they adjust for utility people get maybe from different levels of income, where if you have declining marginal utility, then that means having a couple of really rich people doesn't offset having loads of poor people, but still, that's still ultimately getting into material measures. I think that these other kinds of progress don't follow necessarily a lot of the same dynamics that I study intellectual property rights or emerging from basic science or this or that. But I still think they're really important and undervalued, and I have this sort of thought actually like that we should have. We need to, there's a little bit too much emphasis sometimes on just the hard material innovation and there's sometimes people underwrite this stuff. They focus too much on the material going forward just having cool new sci-fi type inventions and sort of that being the main thing we want, but we shouldn't neglect sort of what I call it, I don't know the social technology that stuff is in some ways more important than for people's lives. When you think about this critique of the little stagnation that people are spending more money on services, instead of things, I feel that's a signal you don't necessarily want to ignore that.


People are all right, well, we've had, thanks for making these TVs, these are great. And thanks for making all this other stuff, but I'll keep all that. But now I want to focus on these other parts of my life and improving kind of these nine material parts seems something maybe since that's where people are spending their money, that's telling us that that's really important. And one thing that's kind of interesting I thought about sometimes these things aren't as unrelated as you think social cohesion or a marriage or something like that. And marriage has been dating and finding partners it has been really affected by online dating technology basically. And so sometimes the material stuff does have significant impacts on the quality of these aspects of our life that is not entirely mediated through economic exchange or I've been a big believer in remote work. And one of the reasons is that it lets people choose where they want to live and how they want to live their lives more based on things like their community and who they know their social ties rather than necessarily having that choice that constrained by this is where the jobs are that's in my skills.


Ben Yeoh (26:10): That makes a lot of sense. And you say, GDP actually correlates quite well with a lot of these other things like happiness or peace, although not perfectly. So thinking maybe upstream about innovation. So Anton house has this idea that it's kind of the improving mindset that you need before kind of innovation sparks in individuals. I was wondering whether you had any thoughts about what might spark off innovation generally, and what are the factors that you think about, people talk about agglomeration effects. Do you have to be in cities that we've got remote work and Anton thinks you have to start with a person and then all of these other things probably not proven any particular way, but I'd be interested in where you think there might be a spark of innovation. Does it start with the person in which case policy should be maybe designed around that?


Matt Clancy (27:07): I really like Anton's emphasis on people changing their mindset and changing what they believe. So Joseph Henrik has this book the secret of our success, which is sort of this long history of cultural evolution in the human species and so on. And he talks about how through most of human history, culture has got more complicated in tech. essentially, we would say innovation happened. It just happened at a really slow rate, but tools got more advanced and stuff. And that all happened without really an improving mindset. I think people just accidentally, maybe it did. I don't know, but for whatever reason, when people were learning how to make tools or whatever, or hunting practices they imperfectly copied whoever somebody else was and maybe they were a tinkerer looking to improve, or maybe it was just a mistake. Maybe it was serendipity, but observing what worked and sort of an evolutionary process allowed innovations to happen, but it was super slow. And I think one of the big things that changed in the industrial revolution is that people got this idea that you can, the way I should preface this by saying, so go back before the industrial revolution. And if you're living in that kind of world where people have a really poor causal understanding of how things work it's the best survival strategy is going to be good at copying what works for other people in your society and not trying to improve it because nine times out of 10, when you try to improve it, you're going to make it worse. And Henrik’s book has these really awesome examples of preparing poisonous plants for consumption.


And there are these extremely onerous. There are lots of things you have to do, it's very time-consuming and very like lots of effort. And many of the steps don't seem to do anything. If you're the one who's is just trying to reason about it, you can't see what the impact of boiling it for 24 hours is for example, but that stuff is really working. It's leaching the poison out and it's leaching it out in a way that you won't be able to detect just by taste and, or getting sick in 24 hours. But it would, if you didn't, if you skipped these steps, you'd pay the prices in by dying 20 years early or something like that. So in that kind of world where there are all these sorts of opaque things going on in the background of how your technology works, the best thing to do is going to be to just copy. And don't try to be smarter than everybody else and figure it out because if you try to take shortcuts, there's a reason thing are the way they are. They were selected that way through being the fittest and you're going to get wrong, I get it wrong. But then by the industrial revolution we had, technology had changed enough that there was sort of scope for just tinkering and figuring things out. I think some of this is just the sort of a new menu of technologies to tinker with that hadn't been optimized over millennia. So there really were some free lunches around. And then at the same time, you had this growing scientific knowledge of how the world works, that made also proactively going out there and trying to figure out better ways to do things like a more reasonable activity. And it's been, I think there's been the switch in the last 300 years were now actively trying to think of better ways to do things is suddenly something that sort of makes sense suddenly in a very long run in for our species.


But I think we still have this baggage from our deep evolutionary past if that's not something we'd normally think of doing. We think we're sort of client bias towards the status quo because for millennia, trying to deviate from the status quo is usually a bad idea. And so, what's interesting is I think in the modern developed world, you can get these, the status quo can become in some places that you just try to do new things. If you live in Silicon Valley or if you live in an area where there are lots of people doing new and exciting things that becomes the thing that you copy for other people. And you hijack these old processes where it's previously I would copy the canoe making techniques of the guy who lived the longest and seemed as I had just had the most prestige in the community and he built really good canoes. He was around because he made them and whatever. But now you copy Elon Musk or something. So it gives that sort of improving mentality. So I think that we're in better shape than ever in terms of creating improving mindsets, but we fight this really big battle because our bias is always going to be towards just doing what everybody else is doing, not taking new risks. And so we've entered and so there's something fragile about it, where if innovation would stop, it would kind of then it could sort of stop. It could get locked in at this frozen level because you suddenly don't have people getting the idea to try to do new things right now. Right now, we're in this really lucky equilibrium where there are enough people trying to invent new things, that is something that is seen as a normal thing to do. And you don't have to rely only on weirdos and outcasts to doing that, I guess.


Ben Yeoh (32:52): Great. I hadn't, I'm going to call that the evolutionary biology idea of innovation and status quo, which I haven't heard before, but I could see, social cohesion during the ice age, you have to do what everyone does otherwise, you're not going to survive. And therefore, we will do that. And now if you're in South San Francisco and you're not working on a startup, you're a little bit weird because surely that's what everyone else is doing. And so, you might

Matt Clancy (33:18): Exactly, but Henrik's bookers is an awesome example of explorers going to these places where indigenous people live successfully for millennia. And it's this natural experiment where these explorers get stranded and they have to figure out how are we going to survive there? And they can't, they usually die. And it's because pre 18 hundred or whatever the natural world is not the kind of thing that the human brain can just figure out in one go, it takes generations of standing on people's shoulders.


Ben Yeoh (33:50): You dropped me in the Indonesian jungle right now. You probably never thing hearing from me yet.


Matt Clancy (33:55): Yes, exactly.


Ben Yeoh (33:57): Maybe moving downstream one piece then. So say you are in charge of a medium, large firm says maybe 5,000 staff and maybe 500 or 500,000. So maybe 10% or 20% of your budget is on R and D. So you're working on innovation. How are you, I guess this is called a corporate lab question. How do you think they should be thinking about organizing that innovation or not? I'm particularly interested in, do you think small teams or large teams, and do you think the sector or the problem makes a difference? So whether you're eating out more, say incremental process improvements versus perhaps a transformational more moonshot idea, does that vary, or should we always be thinking about a small team or a large team, and then I'm going to go on and ask you about glomeration effects with that or not where you can cite it and also size, but let's start with kind of small team or large team or anything you should think about organizational R and D effectiveness now that we've decided that we are going to work on this innovation problem.


Matt Clancy (35:09): Now we've generated a pool of people who have improving mindsets and we're going to figure out how to organize the best.


Ben Yeoh (35:16): Yes. Exactly.


Matt Clancy (35:16):  I preface this by saying there's a huge literature of people who this is their life's work to think about these problems. And so, I'll give you my take, but [Inaudible 35:26].


Ben Yeoh (35:28): And no consensus answer because if we'd solve this, we'd be doing it, but yes, I'd be interested in what you think.


Matt Clancy (35:34): So I think I'm really influenced by this theory called the burden of knowledge, but Ben Jones is an economist at Northwestern and he kind of argues that pushing forward innovation is sort of a general rule tends to take more knowledge than what came before. It's not universal. I think because you can have situations a computer revolution where something really new happens and you can make big contributions without having a deep well of knowledge. You can be a Zuckerberg and found a new company. You don't need to have a Ph.D. before you're having enough knowledge to push the frontier. But most technology, most of the time is not in that state, and pushing things further requires more knowledge than earlier because otherwise they would have been solved like problems that are left unsolved are the ones that we didn't have enough knowledge to solve at the time. And so that creates this problem from the management of innovation sector, mature fields that have been around a long time. They need a lot of knowledge applied to them, and knowledge can only really be applied until we invent AI by humans. And so, you have to get knowledge into people's brains and that means basically large teams of specialists. The way you deploy a lot of knowledge at a problem that needs a lot of knowledge, as you get a large team of specialists who are all really deep in one thing, and then you have to coordinate their actions. The problem there is that innovation, breakthrough innovation, I think tends to come from putting old components together in a new way or drawing a connection and seeing that some kind of theory is a useful metaphor for a domain that is different. So we can apply the lessons in this one to another. And if everybody is a specialist, they're super trained in their niche and they don't necessarily, it's harder to make these connections


Ben Yeoh (37:34): Combination technology across adjacent domains or even far away domains.


Matt Clancy (37:39): Exactly. So the way you kind of, the way that companies have tried to get around this is they encourage things like open offices and they try to get everybody talking to each other all the time. That's sort of I think of that as we've got this collective brain and we're trying to sort of share knowledge within it amongst each other. 


Ben Yeoh (37:58): But it's that kind of serendipity process almost right.


Matt Clancy (38:01): We're trying to maximize encounters between people because we don't know which ones will be useful. Now I think that that process is probably wise. When we talk about agglomeration, we can talk about whether you can do that digitally versus whether you have to be in an open-plan office. But I think the point I want to make now is that it probably happens less efficiently when it's when all the knowledge is split across a bunch of people's heads. Then when it's all in one person's brain, because you've probably had this experience where you have a problem and you're just mulling it over for weeks. And that's bringing in that process, especially when you go off work and you do other things and that activates different parts of knowledge in your brain that are not, you maybe didn't think were related to your problem. And then you have the moment, maybe or something like that. And so, I think that smaller individual who knows everything who knows that all the specialists know would probably be able to come up with a more innovative answer than the team of specialists. But those kinds of people are just really expensive and really rare. And it takes a lot of time for them to train and it might be almost impossible for them to keep up with the frontier in multiple domains of knowledge. That's actually one reason I started the newsletter is because I feel this is a real growing problem that people are specialized in different domains and they don't necessarily know what's going around or going on in other domains. And so, the goal of the newsletter is actually to try and digest and synthesize this stuff. And if you see a connection, you can go read that paper maybe or so on. But there's actually a study, and it's just one study, but it's a new study that looks at this exact problem of the size of teams versus their impact and versus how disruptive their ideas are. And so, they measure these things differently.


The impact is measured by how much do you get cited? And the disruption is this index they come up with where if your idea is really disruptive, it means people cite you, but they don't cite the kind of work that you cited. You overturned all that previous knowledge and now people just start with you. Whereas if they cite you in conjunction with lots of other people that you cite, that kind of indicates, you're an incremental step in this process. And they find that small teams do a better job at creating these disruptive innovations and large teams do a better job at creating these high-impact innovations. And I think a problem that we have to deal with as our technological base gets more and more advanced and more complicated is how we continue to find these really radical breakthroughs when we need bigger and bigger teams in order to sort of advance things. And I think we're still trying to figure that out. There's some interesting work that I want to read about what happens if you embed a generalist who knows a little bit about everything with a team of specialists, maybe they can be the bridge to see the connections. But I said, I haven't gotten around to reading it, that's stuff that'll be in the newsletter. I don't know sometimes.


Ben Yeoh (41:23): Sure. And it might vary by domain you say, mature or maturing ones, we could see, one of the things, a lot about crop science, if you're working on the crop science for resistant Bali or over genes you'll need to build on a lot of knowledge. But I am still intrigued about even the size of teams because there's one theory, which I guess is stemmed because of Amazon and a few others who have this pizza box theory, which means you basically have eight to twelve people teams, but I think that's an organizational effect. Whereas if you have 300 people, they can't communicate as effectively, I guess it's that domain transfer. And also, you kind of made me think, oh, well, person X is going to do this because they thought about that. And it's not clear to me which one is actually better, except that if you have these small teams filled with what you pointed out these very knowledgeable people who know a lot are obviously key, whether they're in a part of large or part of small. And I do wonder whether it intersects with this idea of, what is it, the social weak ties idea so they can connect others because they've got enough domain knowledge to say, oh, what, Bob and Fred and Sally will need to speak because I kind of see something there, even though I might not know enough about how this works. I know enough to know that these people are there which I guess is an organizational part. But I wonder increasingly to what you alluded to, it's an increasingly important part of how we will do innovation because you need to now know so much and you need this mix of small teams, large teams' domain-specific knowledge, but then now across many domains.


Matt Clancy (43:10): And one thing I always do whenever I talk to sort of people who know a lot about computers or learn, AI or machine learning, I always say this is it, I hope this is an area that, some kind of can be solved with some kind of better artificial intelligence assistance or machine learning assistance where it sort of spots connections between fields and some is able to say, you should really talk to this guy or, there's a connection between what you work on and they work on it, even if you're not connected socially.


Ben Yeoh (43:46): Sure. We have this bunch of people and we're going to work on a problem. So, maybe …  it's how to detect cancer in the blood, which is something we're working on now. What do you think the mix should be between say public funding versus private corporation incentive prizes versus say tax breaks? So maybe we can work on even bigger problems. So we're looking at some energy problems, also climate problems, multifactorial global. How do you think you would plan actual incentives, funding, and structure to get various teams, whether public or private, and what portion to work on these innovation problems? Let's assume we've got; they've got the improving mindset. So we've got the right kind of people, but should we, should we be public? Should we be private, large teams, small teams, agglomeration incentive prizes may be purchased commitments depending on what it is. Is that, is it kind of all of the above or do you feel actually from what you read, there is waiting for one or two of these types of structures and texts links that we do or I'll throw in the other one, which I think some people are talking a lot now, Patrick condoms and the others that you just need that diversity of these ideas because we're not certain what hits, but we don't have enough of all of their above.


Matt Clancy (45:14): I definitely, think that's a consensus among lots of people. Citizens, we just need to try a lot more things in a way that we measure. And one, we measure the outcomes and because I said, small changes can accumulate and so they're important to keep track of, but also if we can deploy our experiments in a rigorous way that we can make it easier to learn from them, everyone, I think I'm totally on board with that. And I really hope that we do a lot more of that but on this other question of sort of the general question of public versus private or prizes and sort of how you incentivize work on specific things. So I think that in terms of too there it really depends on your time horizon. All right? So if you're trying to solve a problem in the short term, whether that's winning a war against the Germans and the axis powers or whether that's defeating the Corona virus, then I think your high-powered incentives and specialization coordinating research works pretty well because what we're going to end up doing is we're going to take the best option that we have. That's technologically we believe is technologically feasible and we're going to rant that up really quickly. So it'll have the Manhattan project or we'll have these MRNA vaccines or something that. And, and I think that works because in a short time problem, you don't have basic research is so it takes a long time. It's really risky and you don't necessarily have the luxury of waiting. And so, it's better, in that case, to just taken the option that you have.


And you can I think for advanced purchase commitments work pretty well profit motive is going to mobilize resources that people think are likely to solve the problem pretty well. So I looked at the early days of the coronavirus, I wrote one newsletter about studies on how pharmaceutical companies respond to market demand. And essentially there's a lot of interesting little natural experiments people have looked at where for whatever reason there was an increase in demand or willingness to pay for one type of disease than another. And how does that affect the incentives to do research on that disease? And basically, pharma companies follow the profits, they do more R and B, they run more clinical trials on stuff that's going to be more profitable. But the key is that it has a big effect on third-stage clinical trials or getting a generic drug run through its safety protocols. As you go farther down the chain, it has less and less or down to basically zero effect. So when might think that, for example, with COVID-19, suddenly if you can solve this problem, you're going to be enormously wealthy. And so, you might think that's going to increase R and D across the board for everything by the same amount. But what you've tended to find was there's a huge increase in the number of people looking to see if already approved drugs also had efficacy against COVID-19. You had a lot of people working on vaccine technology, M RNA technology seems miraculous, but we were very lucky that it was already ready for prime time when the disease came. It wasn't they still had to do fundamental research to figure out how to make it work before then. But if you go back, you're not going to see people trying to understand how Corona viruses work necessarily with the hope of developing a drug in 10 years or something that.


Ben Yeoh (49:02): So it's late-stage research, but not basic research. So interesting if you apply that to something malaria or antibiotic resistance, this is why actually it may not be working because of the basic research you might need on malaria or AMR. So new set of antibiotics isn't particularly being incentivized by this type of structure. Is that am I reading?


Matt Clancy (49:29): What I'm trying to say is that I think basically incentives work really well for short-term stuff and they can pull knowledge, that's close to being ready into sort of an actual technology, but if you're not there yet, if you have a longer timeframe or if we don't know how to do something exactly. I don't think incentives actually profit incentives work very well in that case. I think in that case, you need to if you want to tackle climate change, for example, but the existing technology.


Ben Yeoh (49:57): We don't know how to do it or cement it.


Matt Clancy (49:59): We don't know how to do it. And I think that funding, there's a role for funding whatever research you think is most promising for negative carbon emissions, but there's a much, much larger role relative to the other case for just funding anything because the role of spillovers is so huge and the MRNA vaccines the company was developed and had that technology ready to go because they were developing stuff for cancer to do specific gene therapy for specific cancers. But hey, it turned out to have this role here. And I'd done some newsletters about trying to quantify how important spillovers are, which is what we call that when knowledge from another, technically just another person besides the person using the knowledge, has a benefit to somebody else. So, apple doing research that benefits Google or the NIH doing research on a cell-signaling thing that turns out to have a thing for a completely different species and it completely unexpected thing. And in the long run, those things are, I think the most important thing for driving progress forward. If they kind of speak to the fact that innovation is all about doing things we don't know how to do yet, doing new things. And if we already knew how to do them, if we already, well, this is going to eventually lead to this and that's going to eventually lead to that, then it wouldn't be innovation. The whole point is we don't know what's going to lead to what. And so, if you want to tackle any one specific thing, you should just basically fund everything. If you have a long enough time horizon, that's sort of my thought.


Ben Yeoh (51:41): That's a lot more basic research and things. And my intuition is that seems a bit, right, because, we don't really have malaria. Malaria vaccines are kind of in trial and we might have MRI and A for malaria, but arguably it's been a bit slow. And that is essential because countries that have malaria, aren't going to pay very much money for it. So there's this profit thing, even though you've got some advanced purchase because it takes you 10 or 20 years and it's super risky and there's some stuff, we don't know that doesn't overcome the fact that you could develop something for malaria or you could do flu or cancer vaccines probably equally risky within what we know, but with a much bigger profit part attached to it. I actually think incidentally on over the long run, it might prove a net slightly advantageous that MRI and A came through now because my current reading is if it wasn't for something acute, the regulators would have asked for so much data now on how much MRNA data would you have wanted before you could prove it would work for you. If they're going to ask for 10 or 20 years of data that would have actually set back everything you can use MRNA for, which will actually now include cancer, malaria, and all of this would have much preferred not to have a pandemic and have a, maybe more entrepreneurial regulator, but it doesn't look, look that way, which might kind of thinks that then we thought about the corporate lab a little bit and this need for teams and specialists and things that.


Matt Clancy (53:19): And I just interrupt really quick to say the big thing is, if you also have this really long run perspective where you wanting to maximize spillovers, then I think that says a bigger role for things public agencies and things that involve the free sharing of knowledge. So maybe prizes rather than intellectual property rights, because you want to maximize people using other people's knowledge. And when you're looking at a short run, pulling something, that's close to prime time into the market, then you can start using targeted profit motive stuff because I think that works really well anyway.


Ben Yeoh (53:53): I agree if you're thinking about, say global inequity or even globalized growth, you can see it too. They could have got then actually tech transfer from richer countries to poor countries in the areas where they could do with that tech transfer actually raises everything. You diminish the inequality and you graze global growth with that would be much better suited to a public agency to do those sorts of spillovers than private which actually brings us to. So with this idea, you've got obviously us ARPA, DARPA we might have a health ARPA I don't know, you probably haven't seen, but there's been a French paper out by bland shard and Tyrol suggesting a French or European ARPA, EU ARPA. The UK has this opera called Aria. So everyone wants their own little mini-innovation agency. But if you think about the UK ARPA which I think we're calling aria, it's going to have about 500 million pounds. But it's going to need an executive director and is going to need, it doesn't really act. So there's not really looking to be missioned aligned, at least not yet. Maybe it will be, but you've been put in charge. You're now going to be the executive director or the person who appoints the executive director. What should the UK innovation agency be looking at? I mean, I guess, is it funding everything, should it, and is there a particular structure organization? How should we be thinking about innovation through that? You can choose us health ARPA fit seems the same for that.


Matt Clancy (55:35): I think the lack of a mission focus is in theory that's fine because you can just pursue whatever maximizes the public good at the best. But I think that having a mission sort of does a nice job of positioning and agency and helping it, it seems it helps coordinate it because then you draw related types of people together who have related but not over. And you have a nice metric for success and then make a nice justification for ongoing funding in the long run. Right? So if you're not going to do that, then if you're going to fund basic research, for example, basic research takes a really long time for the fruits to become clear and even, or to emerge. And they may never be clearly tracked back. So the political economy of keeping an organization going I think without a mission is sort of tricky, but in general, for all these ARPAS my position is it's good to do whatever we want. We should be spending a lot more as a society on R and D than we do. The returns are really high when you look and think of them in social terms. So we should, we could probably easily double or triple the amount we spend on R and D before we would have to worry about whether we're [Cross-Talk 57:07] wasting money. But I don't when I criticize them, I don't want to be, well, so we should just close that down. But I do think that there's sort of an excessive hope and faith being put on the ARPA model right now.


The evidence-based that we have to draw on is for two reasons, one is we've got the old ones, DARPA, we can talk about them in another, in a minute, but then the newer ones, it takes a while to figure out if these things have worked. And especially if their goal is sort of breakthrough innovation, then you need a lot of data. Because if you only need one hit every decade, then you might need decades of data before you can tell if it's a good investment, but with DARPA I'm always wondered, all right there's a couple of things that I wonder, do they make it seem it was more innovative than it really was? And then, so we were sort of doing a cargo cult thing where we're taking the form of DARPA and just assuming we'll get the same results. So one is they just spent a lot of money and maybe that was the secret sauce is just spending a lot of money, two they were able to recruit the best scientists who were really motivated by the mission of DARPA. They really believed in this survival of the United States. They were people who the people who worked for DARPA were really believed in their mission. And so, you have really smart people motivated with resources. And I think that in that kind of setting, giving them more free reign to use their judgment and not tie them up in grant reports and stuff. That sort of makes sense because they really have sort of this altruistic at least from their perspective motive, they're not going to run away with the funding, or wasn’t it.


They're really concerned about this and then the resources, and then they've got the talent. So you're going to get great results. If you don't have a mission or whatever, maybe that's harder to achieve. And then the other thing about DARPA is because they were a defense agency, they were able to keep everything classified. So all the failures we don't necessarily hear about. So there's a bit of a selection bias. And then the third thing is since everything is classified, they can work on something for decades. And then when it finally works, it sort of appears to us, XD hello, out of nothing. And it's oh my God look what they did. But if [Cross-Talk 59:42].


Ben Yeoh (59:42): It took them 27 years.


Matt Clancy (59:44): If they had not been a classified agency, other people would have been following it along and then somebody else would have picked up the so I read this one book, the Pentagon's brain and talk about how they were working on drones since the Vietnam war. And if all that stuff had been open and out there maybe some other company would've picked up the drone technology and advanced it a little bit and somebody would have been an ecosystem of people doing it. And we would have got there earlier, but it would have emerged more incrementally instead of being seen as this amazing reveal by DARPA on this particular day. And then I think the other thing DARPA had going for it was that because it was just working on different stuff than everybody else, they had a different mission. And so it was kind of working on stuff that nobody else was working on or not giving the same resources to. And so that generates also the potential for surprises just by being funding, weird stuff. Because they're not pursuing their profit motive. They're not doing basic science. They're doing some kind of orthogonal to both. And since you never know, what's going to work trying something that nobody else is trying is occasionally going to deliver these big successes that everyone's going to be really surprised by because nobody else is looking at them. So all of those factors, I feel don't necessarily hinge on the product manager with a lot of freedom to operate. And so that's kind of my hesitancy about are we putting too much faith in these things because maybe what made them work so well was a little bit idiosyncratic and is a little bit hard to replicate.


Ben Yeoh (01:00:20): These are the facts. So I agree and I think I would even put it more strongly that we are under-invested in innovation across all of these things. I would be going much, much higher given the scale of the challenges and returns to all of these aspects. And that is because I partly do think we don't capture some of the value, I said, on pain, that’s not captured within it. And I think you will see those benefits and I'm not utterly convinced that DARPA was necessarily more successful than say US venture capital. So it's the same sort of thing. But to your point, they were working on other ideas, and maybe they had a longer time horizon.


Matt Clancy (01:01:58): I would agree with that.


Ben Yeoh (01:02:01): But they did produce some other good stuff. So I just think, why don't we replicate that, but it might not have been anything special about DARPA. And I haven't heard your point about the kind of secrecy non-spillover effects on that. But I'm reflecting that quite be quite a good thing. I was always taken by two instances in deep pattern history. So one is on Japanese semiconductors where you might be aware that the Japanese patent office held up IBM semiconductor pattern in order for its local industry to get a boost up. And they really did so you, so you can see that. And actually, even going back further in time into the 18 hundred, there's a lot of work on how the dye industry for colors in say France, England, Germany around that time what patterns and things we're doing around there. And in fact, a lot of people moved to Basel in Switzerland and why we've got such strong pharmaceutical companies in Basel in Switzerland is because the dye manufacturers at the time moved over from France to avoid patents so that they could do more work. It was processed at the time and things. So I do wonder about that interplay between how long we should give patents for incentives versus the spillover effects that you get when you've got new ideas coming through. So I guess that, go on.


Matt Clancy (01:03:31): I mean, that's a classic problem. And there's this old Quip about if we were deciding today whether to start a patent system and we didn't have one, we wouldn't have enough information. We wouldn't have enough evidence to suggest that it's a good idea to one, but since we do have a patent system, we don't have enough evidence to argue, to shut it down. So might as well keep it going.


Ben Yeoh (01:03:54): My personal view is actually patented for certain things are too long and certain things that you short, but because only I can judge that on an individual basis and I feel I have that amongst certain drugs and software things, because I can see there's much more value in one and the other and then centers needed, but I can see how the system could no way ever be able to cope with differential pattern life, some things I think, that was probably only worth two years. But the incentives for new Alzheimer's, I'll give you 25 years if you can crack that because that's going to be so super valuable whereas a new type of headache pill is probably at this point in time not going to be that valuable.


Matt Clancy (01:04:36): I completely agree if we knew a good way to get to instruct a bureaucracy to implement that kind of thing, that would be ideal, but we don't know how-to, we haven't figured out a way to do it, that it wouldn't be captured or something.


Ben Yeoh (01:04:52): Exactly. I guess I have two questions that come to mind. One is in hiring people, how much do you think you need formal education for this? So this is kind of the specialized thing. And then the second nicely is an intersection of what we just said is do you think, so Anton house thinks copyright should be reformed. There's kind of a lot of copyright thinkers who think that at least copyright's a little bit too long because of that balance. And I was wondering if you had any views on patents, although I guess we've said that, that it's probably, we are where we are. We don't really have evidence one way or the other that may be tiring to the hiring. So there is some evidence, at least in history that formal education wasn't really a barrier to the invention. And in fact, lack of formal education might have led you to more invention, but more recently, to your point, it does seem that you need a little bit more specialized knowledge in certain areas. But you say, you do need patchouli this sensitivity to cross-domain ideas, which is sort of they're not formal education in whatever it is this other domain is. So I was wondering what you think about the level of formal education that you might need.


Matt Clancy (01:06:05): I think that it goes, it's related to this burden of knowledge thing in some fields you need a lot of knowledge to make meaningful contributions. And I think that sometimes I get frustrated by people who I think draw too many lessons from what we did in the distant past distant, but just in the 18 hundred or first half of the 20th century and this sort of, oh, look at all these tinkerers, these lone inventors they were. And I think, well, I think the nature of innovation for a lot of industries is just changed since then. It was possible in some days to just without formal education or without advanced degrees to just understand the mechanical system, for example. And I've really gone to these when I used to live in London, no, it was in DC. They had this thing on the longitude prize where they made these clocks to tickets see, to measure longitude. And I love those things because they're right, they're so intricate, but you can still look at them and piece out exactly how it's working and understand how the pieces perform their function. And a lot of things are not that anymore where somebody can just come in and figure out what's going on and make a meaningful contribution. There are still are fields that. So in that sense, I think that formal education is probably more important now than it was in the past that said on the other side of the equation, there's a selection effect where the kind of person who has the improving mentality or is going to want to start a company, develop new technology.


They may be, selected out of pursuing enough formal education and the kind of person who can finish, it could be self-denying enough to do they're under that they're masters to Ph.D. and two rounds of post-docs and then apply for all the grounds, play the game long enough so that you're in a position to affect change may not be the kind of person who is, there may be a very rare type of person who can do that. And also advance it, be an entrepreneur is going to advance things. So when I listened to your podcast with Anton, I remember him saying, you can have teams basically, you don't have to have, you might need some specialists with formal education and you might be able to have some other people who don't. I think that's a pretty reasonable compromise. I mean that you can have both and at the end of the day, it's not necessarily the credential that matters. It's just that you do need a lot of knowledge to advance some of these domains. And sometimes you can teach yourself and sometimes you can get an experience and work in an environment where you can learn that without needing the credential. But I think that a very common mainstream way to get the knowledge you need to solve major problems is through school.


Ben Yeoh (01:09:03): So ideally you need both an improving mindset and a reasonable degree of knowledge, if not a whole lot of knowledge, but you might not all be in the same person at the same time. Great. If you have, if you have it in your team, that might be okay too. Excellent. And then would you reform copyright or patent? Or both.


Matt Clancy (01:09:22): I mean, for copyright, I think copyright is outrageous. It's a scandal how long it is, 70 years past that, it used to be 28 years and then you could renew it once to 56. I thought that that seemed to reason. So the issue is copyright lasts right now an enormous amount of time, I think, an insane amount of time. But a patent lasts 20 years, you might ask well, why is one of them so much shorter than the other? And I think that copyright is a weaker form of protection in the sense that it protects not a patent protects sort of the idea itself. I can't just take your same thing and make some small changes and, and, I'm still violating your patent, but with copyright, I can take the idea of a boy wizard who has to fight a guy who stole some of his soul and goes to a wizard school. I can take that idea. And as long as that could be the core thing that makes that series of books popular. And I can just steal that as long as I'm not calling my characters, Harry Potter and not making them super identifiable is supposed to be the same thing. So in that sense, copyright is a weaker form of protection. So it makes sense that you get a longer period to capitalize. But I still think that the current length is crazy and is driven not by. So I remember I did this calculation once where say you're at, I can't remember what I said, say you're at 20 years and you're going to extend it to 50. If you discount the future value of money at 5% per year, what's the difference between that, as you extend it, you only get the present value of an income stream that says your book is going to sell $10,000 a year in perpetuity, the present this value at 5% is I don't know. I think it's 500,000 or something. I can't remember.


I'm doing my math wrong, sorry. But anyway, if you only have it for 9 for 20 years versus 50 years is a very small difference and so the person who it really matters to is somebody whose copyright is about to run out for them. There's an enormous difference between zero more years of protection and another 15 years of protection. And so they have an intense incentive to lobby to extend copyright, and they've been successfully doing that around the world. And the problem is that it has no impact or such a small impact on the reason we have copyright, which is to motivate people to create new things because of all that. And I think it just locks up ideas that would be profitable, recycled and remixed, and stuff like that. So I would love to go back to drastically shorter copyright I don't know, 50 years at the max. And I would, I don't know, I could be convinced that's something that is appropriate, but my bias is towards something that's more the length of the pad as for patents, I don't have as much to say, I think it's a lot fuzzier what the appropriate length is. We've already kind of alluded to some of these things. I think that they do lock up ideas. I think that a lot of patents are a net drag on innovation rather than a benefit, but there are some domains where patents are really important and innovations probably wouldn't happen in some kinds of fields without patent protection.


Ben Yeoh (01:13:04): No, I agree. I think on copyright special interests, essentially publishers and the maybe artists in the top note, 0.1% have this laptop, the average says artist or writer, it does seem to be harmed by it. And then you've got these orphan works and all of this, and it hasn't kept up to date with technology, the way that all I think that's all right, but I am intrigued on patterns because actually if you go back before we had tripped and all of the patent system, much wider variety on pattern length terms. And you say, actually in hindsight, you can identify what maybe deserves longer and deserve shorter, but I don't know of any bureaucracy, which could, which could handle that.


Matt Clancy (01:13:53): Yes, I mean, because, you would want to have it be based on something, you want to provide sufficient incentives. So, you can have longer copyright if you need more money if you need more time to recoup your investment at a reasonable rate or something that. But who's going to tell you the honest length of time it took them. How are you going to monitor that?


Ben Yeoh (01:14:12): And exactly, I mean, I spent quite a long time looking at biopharmaceutical patents, and there's maybe there's any handful of us in the world. You can really look at and assess that you've got process patterns, substance patterns, and crystallization patterns. Then you look at health economics. Was it incremental? Did they really do it? Was it a family? Were they building on other classes and things and all of this knowledge and we judge about whether it's valid or not, or how much prior art and things. ? And this is the whole specialist knowledge that's maybe for each individual drug class has maybe a thousand people who really understand what that value is and they can reasonably disagree within some balance.


Matt Clancy (01:14:50): So, this is a good point for me to ask you a question then. So, if I was asked what's an area that really seems to depend on pants? I would have said pharmaceutical. Innovation pharmaceutical seems one of the best arguments you could make for the value of patents. And I would've said it's because most of the value created by a drug is the knowledge that it is safe and effective, not necessarily how you manufacture it. And so, it's hard to protect that knowledge. Once it's out there you need a patent to protect it because otherwise, everyone does oh, this compound, we now know cures headaches, and doesn't cause any side effects so we can make it and sell it too. But since you're a person who reads patents and pharmaceuticals and this whole, what is your take on the value of patents in medicine?


Ben Yeoh (01:15:38): So, I agree. There are quite a few complexities. One of the most obvious ones actually is that roughly 20 years living on your pattern from when you discover, say the white powder drug or say the MRNA formulation, but on average, it's taking you eight to 12 years to get it through regulatory development. So, your effective commercial patent life on average is getting can vary. It's actually only 10 years. So even when you compare it to the software family patterns, because your development cycles much quicker, you've got way less time. And if you compare it to say software patterns, you've got this kind of a family pattern and you build on that and you can kind of keep hold of that as the large tech companies have almost in perpetuity, right? Which would you call them do within pharma, at least with white powder chemicals, slightly different for biological, but for white powder, once you have the chemical structure and that's known, and then your pattern is gone, it can be copied for you say, the actual chemical manufacturing is extremely cheap, quite cost you a few cents for something then that is not where the value accretion has occurred?


But then because it's only actually 10 years commercial life, you have all of these, the stranger effects of where you try and play essentially patent games to get more life because, because of that value. But fundamentally if you could, you can tell what we would what I would call sort of unmet medical need. Or you could translate that into health economics, where you could see that if you had a cure for cancer Alzheimer's, or malaria, that is more valuable than a headache pill today. So arguably I can give you a 30-year patent and say you've got a cure for Alzheimer's. I can give you a 30-year patent and the NPV, the net present value to humanity is still going to be enormously large, whereas headache pills, given what we have and where we are today, I'll give you two or three years to do something.


If you could do some incrementally better, but quite frankly, you're not that much better than ibuprofen or aspirin or something else. So actually, I don't really need to incentivize you to do anything else because society has something decent, but we have nothing for Alzheimer's is nothing for malaria. And in fact, you can go on because there's quite a lot of health care needs. And so, I would want to incentivize you more. Yes, you can do this maybe with some advanced purchase commitments and other things, but they are way not as good as patents to do with the fact that you need also them to do. As you alluded to earlier, the basic research stuff in some of these areas, particularly in say the brain sciences, Alzheimer's schizophrenia, depression, and you can go on and on where we still don't understand that basic research and some of that's coming out of universities and other publicly funded, but some of that could come really nicely out of corporate labs if they had the incentive to be able to do that because of the long time horizon and also an incredible which people don't understand.


So again, 10 years that it takes you when you discover the white powder drug and before you've put it in humans, your average chance of success is around about 1%. So, you've only got a one in a hundred chance and it's going to cost you anywhere between 500 million to 2 billion to develop that. So, this is why also it probably doesn't suit governments because governments can't afford to spend a billion on something and turn to the public and go, well, you know what? We knew as a one in a hundred chance, the MPV would be great if it was outsiders, but you know what, we, we wasted that billion. We did get some spillovers, but you can't count that. And so again, patents uniquely do that.


Matt Clancy (01:19:17): That reminds me so there's this, the typical view of why we have patents is you do all this R and D, somebody can copy you. And so, you need protection to charge a price above costs for a little bit of time, make a profit. … To make a profit, to compensate you for the R and D you did it. They call this the reward function of patents, but there's this other perspective by a guy named (Edmund Kitch) that he calls the prospect function of patents. And that's sort of what you were saying, where one of the roles of pens is actually to carve out space for an organization to develop a product that actually isn't ready to sell yet knowing that.


They can kind of work freely in this domain without worrying that somebody going to take their ideas and also to prevent the duplication of effort. So, for example, if we gave Alzheimer's patent for, you said, maybe 40 years to some company, and that company has a long-time horizon that it knows all research that it does relate to the mechanism that it has the patent for is it's to work on. And so, it's kind of the likens it to giving a land claim for a mine, the person who owns the mind has the incentive to develop it and go down and dig and do all that stuff because they know that they get to own, whatever comes out of that. And by giving a patent to an organization, to a specific pharma company, we prevent duplicative wasteful effort, people trying to do research on the same mechanism at the same time, they can do other things, knowing that that company is doing its own thing. And so, I've heard people say that that function of patents is actually pretty, it works pretty well still or coordinating research. So, what those guys think.


Ben Yeoh (01:21:08): So, it works really well and pharmaceuticals to take the Alzheimer's example. So, you've got something called amyloid-beta, which is one big hypothesis within Alzheimer's. So, say you locked up the Abita hypothesis or other people could do other APETA mechanisms. But you were given a 40-year claim on that. A lot of people would then look at outsiders, but look at another mechanism that wouldn't compete within that class. But you know that Alzheimer's is really valuable. There's actually a very current debate because USFDA has approved an Alzheimer's drug, which scientists debate its value for in that particular drug. But it's really interesting that you can see it has very much excited companies and investors for follow on drugs. So, the actual benefit to society is at least in my view, unlikely to be in this particular drug, which has got pros and cons, but with the follow-up incentives, because people look on, what I'm not canceling my face to 50 50 Alzheimer's program, I'm going to invest in it more because I naturally now know that the regulatory barrier to this was not as high as I perhaps thought which is a kind of interesting thing.


The flip side saying that maybe that mechanism of action is not the one to go for. So, this brings me to we can do a little bit in honor of emergent ventures and Tyler Cowen, a game of underrated overrated. The little trick here is what we do is what you might've heard this on one of the others one is what may be phantom Tyler might think so you can try whether you think it's underrated, overrated. And then what do you think that Tyler would think? So, this is the idea that we don't actually need the real version of Tyler. We can just have the version of Tyler in our head, and he might scale maybe a little bit better than you would have thought he doesn't, he can't actually be everywhere at once.


Matt Clancy (01:23:07): All right. Exciting to get to play overrated underrated. I never got to play this one.


Ben Yeoh (01:23:11): Let’s start with agglomeration effects. So maybe city agglomeration effects. Do you think overrated, underrated?


Matt Clancy (01:23:21): I am, I totally think these are overrated. This is my whole thing. That doesn't mean that I think that they're zero or that.


Ben Yeoh (01:23:29): They're are just overrated.


Matt Clancy (01:23:31): I think they're overrated though. I think though that the world is catching up a bit with having seen that remote work functions, not just for six weeks, but for over a year without notable huge downsides or anything. And I think that the thing that's interesting is you can see this, I had written a paper trying to synthesize a lot of stuff about remote work. And one of them was about knowledge spillovers and very few papers try to measure how knowledge spillovers, which is people learning from other people who are geographically close from them, but maybe not in the same firm or, or whatever. Very few papers try to have tried to measure how that has changed over time, because there's just kind of been this assumption that, well, what's interesting is what is it? And then we just kind of assume that it stays that for decades. But when papers do try to measure how it's changed over time, they tend to find that it's been declining for decades. The propensity to site patents that are local declining, the propensity to incorporate words for new technologies used to be much higher in big cities rather than media in cities. Other stuff, I don't know, you can look at academics, citing papers that are close or far away in their department. The value they get from moving to a high department has been in terms of their own personal productivity has been declining.


I think there's lots of evidence that the internet and travel have basically eroded the value of being physically co-located in the same city as other knowledge workers. They haven't eliminated it, but it is a lot less than people think. And the reason that's important is that there are countervailing benefits to not being agglomerated that when the benefits of agglomeration begin to fall, those other benefits may start to become dominant. For example, the ability to pick just the right person for the position the right specialist, if you're not limited to your local labor market, I think becomes even more important as this burden of knowledge problem happens, I need to get just the right person who knows just about the right kind of thing. And they may not live in my city. And if we don't benefit that much from being physically co-located, it might be a lot better for me to get the right person rather than the person who I could work with close. So that's my little rant on agglomeration. Great. So, you'd


Ben Yeoh (01:26:06): What would tie say? Well, I guess that means you're then cautiously pretty optimistic about remote working and probably all of the fasts on innovation clusters. It's a thing, but actually, it's of a diminishing return. I don't know what would Tyler say.


Matt Clancy (01:26:21): I don't know what Tyler was saying, I don't know if he's written about agglomeration effects before. I'm trying to think. But I think that he would say they are either, I think he's maybe opposite from me or at least thinks that the conventional wisdom is correct. He talks about the Vienna circle and sort of the value of these highly innovative cities and trying to figure out what made them special. And so, he might be more cautious than me about.


Ben Yeoh (01:26:48): I know he's very pro traveled, but I'm not sure about, I'm not sure about the collaboration. Well, we'll see. Go for GDP as a measure.


Matt Clancy (01:27:03): GDP as a measure, I think I've got the boring consensus. You have an economist, which is terrible, but except for everything else, it's correlated with lots of stuff that people do care about. And so that should give us some confidence in it. It misses a lot. I think if you're aware of what it's missing, you wouldn't want to fetishize it where you start to focus only on it and ignore everything else. But it's very incorporating that other stuff just added extra layers of complexity and subjectivity. If you're trying to incorporate measures of wellbeing, there is some kind of that reminds me of a quote from there's an innovation economist, Alberto Galasso. And I don't think you'll get mad if I share it, but I was asking him once, what do you think about patents as a measure of innovation? Because this is a big debate among economists who study innovation, that patents are this terrible. Are they good? Are they good enough? Is there a super misleading measure of innovation? And he was sort of, this really frustrates me because, nobody bothers all the economists who use GDP, but it's not that's perfect. So, we always get this question, but I'm not sure those other guys do anyway. Is it overrated or underrated? I'd say it's correctly rated. Most people have that view.


Ben Yeoh (01:28:33): That’s a fact.


Matt Clancy (01:28:33): And what would Tyler say. I think he would, I think echo a lot of the same concerns. He's got his wealth plus concept in stubborn attachments. So that's, I think he would probably be, have a similar take that's my guess.


Ben Yeoh (01:28:50): I'd agree. Although I do think he notes that GDP does correlate with so many things that we do actually think are great. So, he would probably say, show me something better, which I guess is the same with TFP, I guess is the same with democracy. Right? Show me a better system. We know it's pretty imperfect, but until I see something better, I'm going to.


Matt Clancy (01:29:09): I don't know if there's not much appetite at the moment for overturning it and changing it to something else., I don't know. I haven't heard a lot of calls.


Ben Yeoh (01:29:19): There is a New Zealand living budget, which I think is the cooker that you're going to get to look at something which is GDP plus, which is being done seriously by a country and looked at by that government economists and things to look at that. But essentially, it's what I say, essentially it is trying to put natural capital and human capital elements and how they think about it. So that would be a step on, but it's not, completely different to what, to what you would think. Over genes or what you guys would call eggplant particularly maybe with OB-GYN yields or crop yields.


Matt Clancy (01:30:02): I don't know that much about it, I know that there was, I believe there's a famous paper about GMO over genes that found that they were the GMOs was spectacular for a developing country context. And so that's good in general. I'm pretty happy with GMOs as for Aboriginals. I think that they're probably a little underrated, at least in the USA, there just as a food. They not part of the staple of any main meals are prepared.


Ben Yeoh (01:30:43): Pretty good. And I get it, it'd be pretty good for yields as well. I don't know what Tyler would think about everything.


Matt Clancy (01:30:51): It's hard for me to guess because he's having too many sophisticated views on the food, I guess. 


Ben Yeoh (01:30:57): I would go underrated because I think he thinks a lot of food, in general, is underrated. NFTS or non-fungible tokens. This is blockchain-type thinking.


Matt Clancy (01:31:14): This is tricky, there's obviously with all crypto things, there's this huge polarization where it's probably massively overrated by people in the committee or at least overrated to some extent by people. I don't want to say massive necessarily. And then maybe underrated by other people. It's something because there's this huge polarization of people who think that it's just, I don't agree with people who think that they're just a STAM, that there's nothing to it. But also, I guess one view I have on crypto is that I think people who are crypto enthusiasts maybe underrate how long it's going to take these ideas to become mainstream, have a significant impact. New technologies just tend to take decades to wind through an economy and for people to figure out how best to deploy and use them.


And over that timeframe can be really significant. And we've kind of got a weird case where remote work has leaped forward probably several years in the future because we had these crazy events where we all had to use this new technology. If we had done in the 18 hundred that there had been some disease that came from steam engines, but not from electricity or something, how that would have changed, accelerated the transition to electrification or whatever. And that's an outlier, how quickly people are adopting remote work and moving to these remote-first companies. I think that's a really weird thing. And other technologies NFTs are going to take longer, but there's this. I read this newsletter from a guy packing McCormick and he used an NFT to try to allocate revenue from a product from a newsletter. He wrote to people which I thought was an interesting idea.


Ben Yeoh (01:33:11): What do you think  Phantom Tyler would say?


Matt Clancy (01:33:15): I think, so I think he's often said, crypto stuff he's waiting for a really good use case for them. And this being a potential use case maybe he thinks that this is a good thing, on the other hand maybe he wants to do with his other crypto usual concerns. So maybe he thinks that they're slightly underrated, but I could be, I have low confidence in that.


Ben Yeoh (01:33:49): I think you'd think they are underrated, but I agree with you that they probably are overrated if you are a guy with laser eyes, but actually for the average person in the street actually don't really touch crypto. So, for them, it is underrated. And I do think NFTs do have a genuine use case. I don't know how large it will be, but it is. I think it is genuine. Maybe the last one on the overrated, underrated science fiction.


Matt Clancy (01:34:17): Oh, science fiction. I think I think for it to be underrated, it would have to mean that people who would like science fiction are not reading, are avoiding it because they underrate it. And if they just gave it a try, they would really like it. And there's some newer science fiction. There's like newer, maybe it's not new, but there's science fiction that's being done by authors who do not traditionally are not story genre writers and they've started dabbling in it. And I think that stuff appeals to people who don't traditionally science fiction. But I do think that people who think of hardcore genre science fiction, which I like, I should say, I'm organizing an econ, Twitter, science fiction reading thing and we're reading a deepness in the sky, a book by burner Benjie, which is amazing. And everyone should read it who is interested in this kind of thing. Because that's the thing. I think that a lot of people who think they wouldn't science fiction, I mean obviously if they could get the right book point, but if they picked something off the shelf, I wouldn't be surprised if they are, I don't like it because it does have genre science fiction is very preoccupied with certain kinds of things that if you're the kind of person who's also preoccupied with them that are fantastic. But if you correctly understand that you're not, you're probably not going to like it that much deepness in the sky is very great if you're interested and how very long run science and technology, how that's going to look for the human race or kind of economics has innovation questions and stuff that. But if do you think that's all boring and you just want a story about somebody's internal journey, that's not the place to go.


Ben Yeoh (01:36:25): Surely that means it's underrated because more people should be thinking about the very long term and innovation question.


Matt Clancy (01:36:30): That's a good point. That's a good argument to say that it would be good for more people to read optimistic science fiction or at least I would say I think that's probably true. And I think that it would probably be good if we could make more high-quality optimistic science fiction television, that will probably have a bigger impact than more reading.


Ben Yeoh (01:36:53): And Phantom Tyler.


Matt Clancy (01:36:58): I don't know, Tyler, it's really hard to guess Tyler's reading.


Ben Yeoh (01:37:02): You think.


Matt Clancy (01:37:05): But I think for the reasons you said he might be optimist; I agree with what you said


Ben Yeoh (01:37:09): I'm a strong conviction on science-fiction he would definitely think science fiction is underrated for all of those reasons. And also, because I think he is a science fiction reader, but that's my guest.


Matt Clancy (01:37:23): Cool, cool.


Ben Yeoh (01:37:24): So maybe turning to the slightly personal career journey is what do you think maybe physics and religious studies have informed you to do anything with economics or also because I know you studied some of that, this idea that you can, I guess there's a kind of liberal arts thing, but this idea that you can swap specialisms or have things across domain has that been useful to you?


Matt Clancy (01:37:52): I when I was in high school, I was really interested in world religions basically, what do all the different religions and sort of this view that all the different religions are sort of trying to find the same core truth and they're all approaching it from different angles. And so that was a question I really wanted to pursue in college. And I went and did religious studies but my parents were very wise, but this is a poor career strategy. And they encouraged me to do something quantitative. And so, I compromised by doing a double degree in religious studies and physics, because I figured this would be a pincher, a talk on truth anyway, we'd learn about the nature of the universe from both sides. And I think that that experience definitely informed who I am I'm not particularly religious right now or a physics person. So, I don't know, read into that as you were, but what did I take away in terms of economics? The reason I went into economics is I didn't really know anything about what economics as a field was. When I was an undergrad, I didn't know any economists really, and I never read popular economics books. It was just something that existed on the wall street journal page or something. And I read Atlas shrugged and guns, germs, and steel when I was a junior, trying to figure out what I was going to do. Because I had decided I wasn't going to be a religious studies scholar or a physics scholar.


And it's not I buy and rants objectivism or anything that, but it was the first time I'd been exposed to thinking of economics as this sort of engine that runs the world as it's super important. And then guns, germs, and steel wire, you can study big, important questions about society, very quantitatively. And so religious studies are the study of world religions and we read a lot of texts, but it's, in some ways it's not a quantity. It wasn't a quantitative field as I was taught, physics was super quantitative. And realizing that these two things could kindly go together and that they might go together in the field of economics, was what brought me to that field. It's an important thing and it's quantitative and rigorous, not that other stuff can't be rigorous too, but that was my bias, I guess. And that's what led me to choose to become an economist. And I think that's all been proven correct. What do I still take away from it? I mean I still read pop physics books. I try to keep up with physics and I still do think about very ultimate questions. It's not I read about them on my sub stack, but I don't know if they're better than anybody else's, but I still think about those things. I think they give you a useful big picture about what do you want to do with your career and your life?


Ben Yeoh (01:41:02): And I think you studied in London and Cambridge. How does that compare to Iowa or even the US versus the UK, but there is something specific about it, I see the London, Cambridge, Oxford Southeast is probably considered the only UK agglomeration thing on that, but very different Cambridge, I guess.


Matt Clancy (01:41:27): They were very different. I mean, how I got into it was I knew that I wanted to study economics. I had no training in economics except for one class that I took and an online class that I took and books that I read. And the University of Cambridge offers this program called the diploma and economics, which is designed for people in that position. It's a compressed one-year undergraduate education in economics for people who have an undergraduate degree in something else. And then the goal is that it's the first year, then the next year you can go on and get a master's or something. So, I did my master's at the London school of economics, and I worked as an economic analyst. So that's, that's what took me to the UK is just to, did this degree.


But also, I had studied abroad in Ireland and really enjoyed the experience of living somewhere besides the United States. And so, I was really open to trying something different. It’s a very different system. The US system is very piecemeal or spaced out. We have lots of little assignments that are evaluated and count towards your grade throughout the entire semester. And so, the final is maybe it wouldn't be uncommon for the final exam to be, 15% of your total mark and everything else is from midterm exams and homework that you did and participation and a bunch of other, a huge mix of stuff. And then both universities of Cambridge and London School of economics, that was all just an end-of-year exam was pretty much the entirely everything. And so, the first year at Cambridge, I didn't do particularly, I did fine, but I didn't do great on my exams because I had no idea how to sort of study for these kinds of high stakes, everything exams.


And so that was a learning curve, but I think I got over from London school of economics, I figured out how to productively study for that kind of thing. But then the funny thing is, so now I teach at Iowa state university and I have slowly gone from a more UK style to a more US-style and how I teach my own classes. Because the thing I about the UK style is it's very I don't know, there is a moment in time when you sort of, in theory, know everything that, you studied in that year, whereas in the US you can count on things to kind of filter in one ear and out the other, they go on the exam and, maybe you suffer a penalty because, at the end of the semester, you can't remember, but that's only 10% of your grade or something that. Or you cram and you get a little bit, but with the UK system, you really know everything at that moment. And it's a nice system, all right, at least at this one moment in time, this is a good measure of what this person learned over the year. I tried to do a system like that in the US where most of the exams for almost all your weight, and then you could get some extra credit from doing the homework as a way to incentivize people, to keep doing the homework in a culture where people are not used to the idea that if they haven't had the experience of not doing it and then getting burned at the end of the semester, and it didn't work at all, [Inaudible1:00:44:28] was too hard, the culture, the expectation of students is just too different, in a class where they're not being continually evaluated on things they have opportunity costs and there are other classes where they are being evaluated on stuff at the moment. So the stuff in the class that it's only the final gets shunted down the way. And it just, and then they don't have experience with knowing how badly that will burn them. And so, then I didn't, I don't do that anymore, but I still think that there's merit. I think there's merit to it, but it's also very high stress and high stakes.


Ben Yeoh (01:45:10): It's different, but I do think, I think there are pros and cons about the UK system is because you do need to basically assess yourself whether you think, something all the way along the year to get to that endpoint. And actually, that sometimes reflects things in companies because depending on the companies or even whatever walk in life is you need actually a particularly brilliant manager or whoever's above you to be able to give you constant feedback, to tell you that you're doing. You could do this project this month, a week. Usually, the average worker doesn't get told anything and they might have a big project or not, but generally, you don't know what you're doing. Maybe you have an annual review. It's more companies that really even have annual reviews. So, unless you've got a built-up some way of knowing how you're doing, you actually then tend not to do that well, and that's something you have to do on the job. On the other hand, you’re having the big project at the end that doesn't always the same as all companies, but that sense of being your own self-evaluator as opposed to I just took a quiz every week. So, I knew and had to do it is a kind of different way of thinking, which is interesting. I don't know which ones better.


Matt Clancy (01:46:20): I that the UK system also builds in autonomy and you have to self-motivate and you have to decide on your own study. And I think those are good skills to learn for life. Whereas the US system can just follow the plan laid out for you by the instructor. And then when you graduated and you don't have a plan anymore, you might in [Inaudible 01:46:43].


Ben Yeoh (01:46:45): Great. A couple of last things, I think one I'd love to hear you on about remote work. But maybe before that, because I know you studied a little bit in Sub-Sahara Africa, also some countries there I've been interested. Do you think there's anything we particularly misunderstand about Sub-Sahara Africa? I'm sure there are lots but something which you kind of see, if you could understand this it would just give you a lot better insight because I guess most people don't.


Matt Clancy (01:47:15): It's tough. I mean, for Sub-Saharan Africa, that was my first job. And it was kind of assigned to me. I went to work for this company to be an economic analyst and they were, you will have these countries. And so, I didn't, have a pre-existing knowledge or expertise in them. And I was always nervous about, if I had sufficient depth of knowledge over this thing, I think one big thing is just that, it's an enormous diverse place. Africa is not a country, its many countries, it's enormous. It has that probably one big misconception or I mean people know that I suppose, but they don't realize it and they think it's just sort of Africa. But that all leave it at that because, to be honest, this company never even paid for me to visit. And I don't know. I don't want to speak out of term basically.


Ben Yeoh (01:48:24): And so remote work, so you've done some interesting stuff, actually, what you've got to find off a separate blog, because it's not all on your substack, but your I get the sense, pretty cautiously optimistic about both the emerging work and what it might mean for people. So, I don't know whether you want to sum up what your current thinking is about how remote work might work in the future for us?


Matt Clancy (01:48:48): I've been working on remote work for a couple of years before the Corona virus. And it started because I live in Iowa, which is in central United States. It's a small primarily agricultural state with these problems of declining population. And what is what jobs can be done, especially we don't have a major urban city, they don't have a big city the biggest city is under a million people. And there've been all these, this is sort of in the era when Trump had been elected and there was all this talk about the urban-rural divide. And there were a number of plans that have been put out about ways to sort of revitalizing parts of America that are not you're muted there, but ways to revitalize the parts of America that I've been left behind by agglomeration forces and stuff. And I just thought that most of the plans that were suggested were, I wasn't really happy with them. So, there were plans to sort of make research centers, instead of in a few cities make pick 20 different research centers, or maybe even just 10 around the country and pour research money into those places, or revitalized small liberal arts college towns and, or just give people money to move to the big cities. And I didn't think that these were very good, but I thought remote work was potentially useful. If you can do the jobs of the agglomeration economies without having to live in them. This is a way to sort of tether left behind regions to the modern economy. And so, I started getting into that and I knew I had some personal experience working remotely in my previous job in the department of agriculture.


And I had been always paying attention to this issue of knowledge spillovers. And so, I started looking a lot more and I thought that there was basically a good case to be made that the outlook for remote work was a lot stronger than people appreciated, because I felt the arguments for remote work, this is all pre coronavirus were fragmented across many different social science domains. And there weren't people who had attempted to pull all the threads together, you have economists, or labor economists to study remote work directly. And they do experiments where they sort of see how well do people work when they work at home versus in the office. And they do experiments where they randomize people to one or two arms of this treatment. And they tended to find that remote work was pretty effective.


Often, they would find more effective than people in the office. So that was one strand of literature and they were kind of advocating for it, but they weren't. It wasn't they were super passionate about it. Then you had other people who were working on online labor markets and developing algorithms to match workers to firms or working for Up work business guy, John Horton who's worked on experiments on the design of the Up-work platform to match remote freelancers to things. And other people who've looked at the effect of the internet on job search and just all this stuff, basically that finds that how does the internet facilitate job search? And one of the problems with remote work has been well, even if you can do the job remotely, how do you find the job that's a good fit? And one of the promises of remote work is that you'll be able to hire just the right person for this job.


They're not local, but if you don't know where they are, if they're not, how do you find them? And with online labor markets and algorithmic recommendations that problem starts to get solved. And then on the third side, you have people who do study online social networks, and they're looking at the geographic footprint of our social networks and how that's expanding. And so, whether these things let us. How many of my friends live close and how many of them are far away and I don't think there's exactly work on remote work there, but just the idea that people tend to meet people who live nearby. But when they move away, there's a lot of those connections that seem to persist pretty well. And I think it's because of all the modern technology that makes it easy to stay in contact. And so, a lot of jobs are found through these informal social networks. And if your informal social network is now spread out geographically, that becomes another avenue. And then the last piece of the puzzle was just the knowledge spillovers I knew had been falling for a while. I tried to write a comprehensive survey of all these different things and put them in one place and say, look the case for remote work is a lot stronger than any one of these individual groups recognizing because all these things go together. And it's basically the case that the technology for performing work remotely has gotten a lot better. And so, you can, many jobs can be done remotely pretty well. We've done experiments on different kinds of works. And that seems to be the case. And even if I'm only 95% or 90% as effective working remotely as I am in the office if you can find the person who's 20% better, because they're not local, then that's good for the firm.


Or you can think about if I'm only 90% as effective, but I don't have to commute at all then on a per hour basis, that makes sense for me to just stay home and you can change my compensation maybe or something so that you're getting the same value for money. And basically, I wrote the case for remote work. I had started it and then coronavirus hit and I better get this thing out quick. And then I feel that has been so vindicated that it's almost boring now. Maybe it's a little bit too much, too soon to say, but I think everyone’s, everything that's been followed up, there's been a lot of work since then. And workers are pretty much across the board. It works better than we thought and is productive. And a lot of people say they're more productive working at home. Companies are realizing this and I don't know. It's a very weird case. I thought this is going to play out over decades and that we should incrementally make policies that make remote work easier. But instead, we had this huge shock that happened. Looking forward I think the biggest unknown about remote work is about the formation of social networks, informal social networks. Right now, we're kind of riding on the capital, the social capital developed from lifetimes of working in the office and in cities. And that has all these benefits of I go to parties with my coworkers and I meet their friends. And if it's a city that's a cluster, they might work in the same industry or a related industry.


And we build this whole network up. And that's a really valuable thing because that can give me a job recommendation. That can be a place I turn to for advice about, should I hire this person? Are they really good? I'm sorry if I have a question about an area of technical capability, I know people who I can ask, I am aware that there might be technical capabilities that I could use for some new innovation because I talked about it at a party. And if we all scatter which I don't think we're going to all scatter, but is that going to slow down innovation? And I think the big unknown is how much of that can be recreated with the internet. I have made a lot of professional contacts through Twitter and Twitter is in some ways a bar that you hang out and randomly meet people.  And the thing about Twitter is a lot of the interactions are not as good as if you were co-located. Face-To-Face they're more fleeting. It's harder to form a deep connection, but you are interacting with an order of magnitude, more people. And so, I think we don't know to what extent those things balance out. And then, you have things other social networks, you have conferences, people would go to, and they could maybe do all their socializing in one place there. And then, meet a bunch of people. And in the past, I would have met them, but nothing much would have come of it. But now I meet a bunch of people and we keep in contact over Twitter and Facebook or email. And so, I'm able to form informal social networks in that way, almost as efficiently as if we all lived in the same city. And I think that we just don't know, this is the big unknown, but I think it is probably important. I still think that even if it turns out we can't form informal social networks as well online, or, maybe that's a big demerit, there's still a lot recommending remote work because it has all these other advantages that are sort of compensating. But that's my current big concern about the future of remote work is that side of it.


Ben Yeoh (01:57:52): I think that's fair. I think there will be these compensating, but that weak tie, social network, the serendipity, and also for a category of jobs where you need what I would say you need to face to face works better. A classic example would be a master carpenter. So, if a master comes to write their stuff in a book, probably you can't really follow it. Maybe a bit. You probably can learn a reasonable amount if you follow them on video. So, YouTube would help, but you obviously added a lot more, if you can actually be in the same room and follow them. And there might be a class of the things, the soft skills, knowledge process, and know-how that you need from master carpentry, but actually, that master carpentry category of jobs might be smaller than we thought, or rather that the category of jobs where the video is good enough.


The video might not work for master carpentry, but it probably works for baking a cake, might not work for a chef, but it might work for these other things. I think that's true. The one other thing I would say that actually, I think seeing your business leaders who, what I would say maybe for more old school industries or have older school ties are less keen on remote work. Hybrid. I don't know because I think that's where the compromise is going to be, but actually, if your tech Silicon Valley or you're, whatever, the CEO of gravity payments or Coin base you want virtually remote anyway, beforehand, you've done that. But actually, the CEO of JP Morgan, much more reticent. So those are my two reflections on that.


Matt Clancy (01:59:32): I think that the people who grew up who became CEOs in the old system obviously are people who know how to flourish in a certain domain. And you wouldn't expect that they're necessarily going to be the people who would also flourish to the same extent in a different kind of organization. So that was one reason I always thought there's going to be a slow thing to play out because it would be led by companies forming from the beginning. And then you'd have this ever-growing cohort of people who have experienced managing and leading remote companies. And they would spread out. Now we're in this weird situation where you have this. We're having companies that existed and were set up for one way deciding to switch because for these kinds of reasons, and they paid the switching costs in terms of the developed processes to do things remotely. And they've invested in the equipment coronavirus forced them to do that. But in some way, they being remote-first isn't necessarily in their DNA in the same way it would be for another company. And as to your first point, that's probably something I should have said right at the beginning, I don't think there's ever going to be a hundred percent well ever in a long time. But in the next few decades, I don't see us going a hundred percent broke remote at all. I sort of target well, 20 to 30% of workers being full, being mostly remote. And I think that's thing is still a huge change. You had some new industry that was 20% of people and it could be done from anywhere. It seems that's a really good thing for places like Iowa and so on.


Ben Yeoh (02:01:08): And whole categories of jobs, call center to the extent that it wasn't going to go AI, and you still think actually, what a person would be better than the person at home can completely do. Maybe that remotely on that. So, I do think that's true.


Matt Clancy (02:01:23): What you're saying also about the value of being a face to face. I totally agree with that. That's one thing that I changed my mind about doing all those researches is when I first started, what do you really need to be face-to-face for? When in the era of zoom, it's just people being Luddites or something, but reading more and it just continually comes up again, that even knowledge workers who are comfortable with it, they like to have occasional in-person things. WordPress has been fully remote for 20 years or whatever, but I think they have quarterly things where teams get together in person because there's a study of Google and they have people working all over the world and they talk about how valuable it is to have when you're starting a new project, to get everybody in one place to get on the same page.


And then you kind of figure out the roles and the project, the tasks that need to be done. And then it's a lot easier to them in the sense you're sort of breaking the problem down into discrete chunks that then makes sense to do remotely where people can focus. But I think that a fully remote, it's not everybody it's never going to be everyone and it's not even going to be that people never see each other. They just will see each other intensely for short periods of time. And then most of the time they won't at least in person, that's kind of how I think it's really to evolve. And then as you said, for the hybrid. Hybrid is, I don't know, it's a little bit risky. It's sort of in some ways it's halfway between the two, but you can very easily end up in a worst of all world's situation that hopefully, firms are going to try hard to avoid because you have to live in the region, you have to live within commuting distance. You're limited to the local labor population. And you have to, you have to commit to establishing processes so that remote workers can do things effectively. So


Ben Yeoh (02:03:15): You might as well be in person. It's kind of all that.


Matt Clancy (02:03:18):

So anyway, that's, that's the risk.


Ben Yeoh (02:03:21): I can see that. Actually, I didn't think about the risk burden of hybrid as much. Great. Last question, which is what does a productive day or week look like for you?


Matt Clancy (02:03:37): I am trying to write a new post for new things under the sun about every seven business days. It’s about 10 days on average. And I do a mix of reading for that and then writing for that. And then I have other projects and I think I don't have a hard time staying focused because I have three kids and when I dropped them off at daycare, versus when I picked him up is the only time to really get things done. And I worked pretty intensely for that middle period. And then I'm too frazzled to do much outside of those areas. I'm usually reading or writing. I think one thing that's interesting about doing the newsletter is I'm trying to synthesize and write about existing work. That's, invariably very high-quality cause that's why I chose to write about it. And I didn't really realize this until I was working on my own research project recently and had that feeling of thinking things are going really well. And then about three hours later, realizing that you made an error and everything was a waste. And I didn't realize, but the safety or I don't know, the risk is lower of me, I'm always producing stuff that I think is valuable. I'm doing it more often now rather than doing these really uncertain things. I think that's what a productive day looks like for me. Drop the kids off, read or write until five answer emails and go to meetings is less productive. It feels less productive. It probably needs to be done anyway. And that's it.


Ben Yeoh (02:05:24): And the occasional podcast.


Matt Clancy (02:05:25): That's right. I love it.


Ben Yeoh (02:05:27): Great. Well with that. Thank you very much. I think that was an amazing conversation. And please check the link down below and subscribe to Matt's substack. Thank you very much.


Matt Clancy (02:05:39): Thank you very much.

In Economics, Investing, Podcast Tags Innovation, Matt Clancy, Remote Work, Copyright, Patents

Latest UK climate change report

June 18, 2021 Ben Yeoh
Screenshot 2021-06-18 at 16.50.12.png

The latest independent report on UK climate change risk is out.

"The Adaptation Committee’s Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk sets out the priority climate change risks and opportunities for the UK. The Advice Report provides the Adaptation Committee’s statutory advice to Governments on priorities for the forthcoming national adaptation plans and wider action. It is informed by extensive new evidence gathered for the accompanying Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) Technical Report. More than 60 risks and opportunities have been identified, fundamental to every aspect of life in the UK covering our natural environment, our health, our homes, the infrastructure on which we rely, and the economy.

-Alarmingly, this new evidence shows that the gap between the level of risk we face and the level of adaptation underway has widened. Adaptation action has failed to keep pace with the worsening reality of climate risk.

-The UK has the capacity and the resources to respond effectively to these risks, but it has not yet done so. Acting now will be cheaper than waiting to deal with the consequences. Government must lead that action.

-The Committee identifies eight risk areas that require the most urgent attention in the next two years. They have been selected on the basis of the urgency of additional action, the gap in UK adaptation planning, the opportunity to integrate adaptation into forthcoming policy commitments and the need to avoid locking in poor planning, especially as we recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

-The Committee also reports on the full set of 61 risks and opportunities. These must be considered in the next set of national National Adaptation Plans, due from 2023.

-The Committee recommends ten principles for good adaptation planning that should form the basis for the next round of national adaptation plans. These are intended to bring adaptation into mainstream consideration by Government and business."

Link to report here.

In Investing, Carbon, ESG Tags Climate

Ford's new EV truck, Lightning

June 1, 2021 Ben Yeoh
Source: Ford

Source: Ford

A look at how Ford’s new EV truck could be a pivot point in electrication in US transport.

The truck can also store 3 days worth of power for a house.

“One in every 16 vehicles on American roads is an F-150, and it is the most used vehicle in 39 states.

The Ford F-150 Lightning, the new electric version of the ur–American pickup truck, will go on sale next spring for $39,974. Because Ford vehicles still qualify for the federal EV tax credit, most Americans will pay a little less than $32,500 for this truck….

…Or more relevant, for our purposes: Ford sells about 900,000 F-150s every year; all automakers collectively sold 250,000 new EVs total last year. “This may be one of the important products in decarbonization,”


…The Lightning can store so much power that, in a blackout, it can supply a house’s normal power usage for three days, according to Ford. If the house conserves power, it can keep the lights on for more than a week, Zhang said. Talking about this feature, Ford employees and Farley himself have referenced the Texas blackouts. The Lightning is a technology of resilience, of climate adaptation…” (from Atlantic piece).

And from Marginal revolution:

“…Security, peace of mind, don’t be left alone in the dark…all great conservative selling points. Note the truck in the picture is powering the house and the chain saw. The husband and wife, their home and their truck, project independence, success and confidence–a power couple–even with a nod to diversity.

The Lightning is also fast with 0-60mph times in line with those of a Porsche 911 circa 2005, it has more carrying capacity (thanks to the smaller electric motors) than a similar gas vehicle, and it can tow a respectable maximum of 10,000 pounds with all the options.

The Lightning might succeed or it might fail but it won’t fail on politics, this is a vehicle a red-blooded, meat-eating skeptic of global warming could love….”

In Investing, ESG, Economics, Carbon Tags EV, energy, trucks

Tom Gosling on incentives, corporate purpose, netzero and happiness; Podcast

May 16, 2021 Ben Yeoh

Tom Gosling was a partner at PwC, and an advisor to boards around executive pay and incentives, governance, and strategy. He's currently an Executive Fellow at London Business School and helps steer the work of the purposeful company collaboration.

Tom speaks about the benefits of purpose and the risk of corporate puff. We touch on audit reform and the challenges of regulation. We discuss the importance of democractic process and the role of government compared to the role of business. We underrate/overate carbon taxes, diversity targets, Milton Friedman and financial incentives.

On a personal note, we talk about the challenges of achieving a personal netzero, the joys of singing and the importance of understanding what makes you happy. Tom Gosling’s website.

There is a special guest cameo appearance in the video (pictured).

It's a fascinating conversation on many currently debated topics. Listen here or read the transcript below.

Transcript:

Benjamin [00:00:02]: Hello everyone, I am super excited to introduce Tom Gosling. Tom was a partner at PwC, and an advisor to boards around executive pay and incentives, governance, and strategy. He's currently an Executive Fellow at London Business School and helps steer the work of the purposeful company collaboration. He has recently hosted his podcast, the grow the pie podcast at London Business School, and is advising people as a financial and executive coach. I should say this is an informal educational podcast, and we're not endorsed by or speaking for any of the organizations we are associated with. So welcome, Tom.


Tom Gosling [00:00:38] Ben, it's a delight to be here. Thanks for inviting me.


Benjamin [00:00:41]: Great, we just get straight into it. So, purpose. Critics argue that corporate purpose is mostly PR and path and good messaging, and doesn't mean anything. Whereas proponents might claim that this is the sustainable way to long-term wealth, and welfare, and value creation. What's your current thinking around this given all of the work you've done with a purposeful company and the purpose tapes that you guys have just recently put out?


Tom Gosling [00:01:10]: Well, I think sadly, it's probably true that on the whole, currently, purpose does a little bit of fall into your sort of PR marketing bucket. But that's not sort of the best vision for what it can be. And on one hand, I think, the purpose is pretty simple. I think you've organization loses touch with what they're here to do and the benefit that they provide to society, they're unlikely to be successful. So, on a very simple level, purpose provides a sort of a guide to organizations creating long-term value. So, I don't think that purpose is just guff, but at the same time, I don't think the purpose is the answer to all the world's problems, I think sometimes purpose advocates can sort of a little bit overclaim for what purpose can do. But I just think clearly about what you're doing for your customers, the impacts that you have on your stakeholders, why you exist in the world, has just got to be a good thing for running a great business. And I think if you look at a lot of great businesses, they've got that strong sense of what they're here to do at the core of everything that they do.


Benjamin [00:02:13]: And did you have any particular learnings from these purpose tapes, which have just gone out any sort of reflections to go, that was a new thing, or I didn't get that?


Tom Gosling [00:02:22]: Yes. So, there's one interesting thing, I think, which is not quite all, but the vast majority of the CEOs interviewed say that they don't see any conflict at all between being purposeful, and value creation. And I find this kind of quite fascinating. I am sort of slightly skeptical about it because I think that there are trade-offs. But the risk is a really strong conviction that they all have that actually; this is not an either-or discussion. This is about the route to how we create long-term values. And I think there's quite a lot in that, although, we can get carried away by it. Because at the end of the day, there are trade-offs. I can choose to pay my employees more or retain more in profits in the business. I sort of have that sort of decision every day, particularly when you come to issues like the environment, there are still externalities that companies can take advantage of, if they want to create money, at least over the short term.


But I think it was very interesting, the extent to which almost all of these leaders were kind of committed to this idea that there wasn't a tradeoff. I think the second interesting thing is that quite a common theme that came out from both investors and companies that we spoke to, was that there's something not quite working in the dialogue between the two, around purpose. And companies are sort of saying that investors don't get it. They just ask about the short-term numbers the whole time. But then the investors say, well, actually, the company's just serving up all this PR guff, that doesn't have anything to do with the business or long-term value. So, a few investors and companies are talking across each other at the moment. And certainly, one of the things that in the personal company we're interested in looking at a little bit more this year is how can we improve that sense of shared understanding about corporate purposes? And I'm sure you'll have a perspective on that challenge from your day job hat.


Benjamin [00:04:20]: Yes, you see that a little bit within reporting, which I'm sure you'll touch upon, where you end up with a lot of reporting, which is on the one hand, kind of material. So, for instance, you could talk about currency risk. That's a kind of material risk to a business or commodity price. But actually, typically is not that interesting a risk for investors is almost like a boilerplate risk. And so, you've got this cross purpose where you're kind of going, yes, under any sort of framework. It's kind of material, but it's not of material interest to investors over the long term. And essentially, that's just one example of where you get this light. Well, it's useful to know where your purpose statement is, say healthcare companies typically have one about saving or improving human lives. But it's not kind of materially interesting unless we know how exactly you are achieving that through whatever mechanisms you go.


And so, I think that's where a part of the confusion is, as well as the fact that investors, which we make a market, we're a very mixed group, heterozygous as we would think, is much more mixed than potentially companies or other people realize. It kind of brings me on actually to another question, which is an offshoot of this, which is that I guess one framework is you have companies, you have people, stakeholders, you have NGOs and other organizations, and you have a government. And I guess the lines seem to be blurred between what our government responsibilities, what our corporate responsibilities, what our investor in people and other stakeholders, but that you can see this between the company piece, the government piece, and the investor piece. And one theory I hear, which I think there's some credence towards is that increasingly, policy or say, governments have pushed some aspects of what may be previously we would think would be in government or policy remit onto companies and an investor.


So, it's like, well, the government's not going to have a real policy around carbon on net zero, but we're going to expect individuals and companies to all do it. And that would be great. So, I was kind of interesting, in maybe the cross-section of purpose, do you feel there's been this blurring between, say, government responsibilities, and corporate or investor and other stakeholders? And should we be doing anything about that? And therefore, do we feel some sympathy, for companies, investors who are being potentially asked to take on responsibilities, which you could argue maybe they're not best well suited for or if they are suited for are then they don't have them, say, the democratic mandate to do something, which should be through a government mechanism?


Tom Gosling [00:07:13]: So, I think we've got the next 20 minutes of our conversation pointed out here. You've raised so many fascinating issues in that question. And I'm just going to start by connecting back a little bit to the previous comment around this sort of lack of meeting of minds within investors and companies around purpose and your comment on materiality because I think that there is this sort of confusion, or at least mixed views about what purpose is, and is there to do, so some people think that purpose is about companies just being nice to everybody. And therefore, understanding all of their potential stakeholder impacts, mitigating negative stakeholder impacts, and so on. And that's where some of this kind of pressure around the kind of social responsibilities coming on to companies comes in.


And I'll maybe come back to that because I think the thing that a lot of articulations of purpose miss, which is what caused the investors problem with it, is how does this purpose help and support the organization in creating value over the long term? And I think that's where the purpose needs to start. And quite often, what you find is that purpose statement, just try to pick out the good bits that a company does. And it's almost like sort of buying indulgences from the church in the Middle Ages, you know, you do all of this sort of terrible stuff over here, but then you've got your purpose over here, that kind of makes it all okay. Whereas actually, I think the few companies that do purpose well have a very deep understanding of how it links into that value creation process. And I think Freddie Wolf at Jupiter, but for his master's thesis, he did a review of all of the purpose statements of footsie companies. And I can't remember the exact numbers, but about 10% of them made any reference to strategy or value, so they sort of sit in as this sort of abstract thing.


And I think this is in part in response kind of coming on to the question you just asked to this pressure that corporates feel under to be sort of fulfilling kind of societal goals. And I think we need to be quite careful about this. We need corporates to be acting in a way that is consistent with the sort of societal expectations of the time. But also, we need corporations and investors to focus on what they're good at. And to your point, what they have the mandate to do. And I think the danger of pushing too much onto corporates is twofold. One is it distracts them from doing the stuff that they're good at, but the second is, it creates this idea that we're solving the problem, when, in some of these areas, what we need is strong government action. And I think there's a little bit of a danger that we all sort of pat ourselves on the back about this sort of wonderful, responsible business movement, when actually, it's not making a sufficient difference, if I take an issue, like climate change, for example, which is, I think quite a good case study of this.


At the moment, there's all of this kind of push for investors and corporates to be taking the action on climate change. A couple of real problems with that, one is, it's just not going to have a big enough impact, we might sort of bend the curve by 10%, or something through this sort of thing. But the only way we're going to reverse it is by getting proper regulation, decisions like banning internal combustion engines, carbon pricing, all of these kinds of things are what's going to create the environment where investors and companies can do what they're good at, which is to optimize scarce resources. And I think the way that we're trying to do it, number one, this whole issue around climate change is fundamentally an optimization problem, and you can't do it at the company level, you have to do it at the system level. But I think also, this point about democratic accountability is important because there are going to be winners and losers. And if you're an investor or aboard, he's deciding, for example, let's say you got coal mining, coal mine is an asset.


Now, every coal mine should be kind of shut as soon as possible. We should just not be pulling this stuff out of the ground anymore. But then you say, well, you put yourself in the position of the company or its investors. So, if they shut the coal mine, that harms their beneficiaries, so that imposes the costs on them. But actually, it also harms the community where the coal mine sits. And so, what is their legitimacy for making that decision? Now, you could say, well, if all of their investors gang up and tell them, well, we don't want to own coal mines anymore, we want you all to shut them and we're prepared to pay the cost. I suppose that at least solves that problem. But you then still got the problem of the community on the receiving end being told by all of these shareholders who are on a weighted basis, rather wealthy people, telling them that they can't have their livelihood anymore.


So, I think that we are starting to expect a little bit too much from responsible business. And if we think that pushing this political decision-making into the realm of corporates is going to somehow appease people who are frustrated about capitalism, I'm not sure that's true. And I guess one final point on this as well, boards when they're thinking about what it means to be quite responsible, have in mind a particular target demographic, whether it's their customer base or their investor base. And that is not democratically representative. So, there are just loads of problems here, I think we need to sort of pull back a little bit from this notion that business solves all these problems.


Benjamin [00:13:06]: And it can kind of give governments a sort of free pass. They managed to push it on. We've got the pike on, it's going to end for one second, and we will restart.


Tom Gosling [00:13:23]: I love the way it just appeared out of the virtual background. That's an amazing trick.


Benjamin [00:13:31]: So, you've been a trusted advisor within the boardroom of a vast number of some of the largest corporations in the world. And my impression is that most boards are well-meaning, but actually, we can see they still make mistakes in their decision-making need advice, I'd be interested, can you give me your impressions of what it is like working with non-execs, we don't get a glimpse into what happens in the boardroom. And I think, this is one of the problems on the democratic accountability part that we were talking about, because boards don't have that same sort of political decision, but are making some of these so as a trusted advisor, can you give a little insight as to what it is like working with these non-execs? Are they as well-meaning as they seem?


Tom Gosling [00:14:14]: So, I would say that definitely, board members are well-meaning, I think that this idea of the sort of, greedy avaricious board members just trying to exploit stakeholders for gain, it just hasn't been my experience. But what is also interesting is that ultimately, they're just people sitting in a room. And we sometimes sort of think of somehow these boards being omniscient and having all of these amazing sources of information, and they do have incredible resources. But ultimately, they are making decisions based on limited information, and therefore, as you say, they can make mistakes and as with everybody, they are Riven by all of the limitations that we have as humans. And I think one of the other things that people maybe don't always acknowledge is boards and non-executive. So, it's executive teams that run companies, boards don't run companies. And again, I think that's a little bit dangerous about assuming too much of boards, and what boards are capable of doing, they do play a role of a sort of challenging executive as opposed to getting into the weeds of running the company.


But I do think that on the whole, you've got high-quality people doing these jobs. I do think, however, that there is sort of limitations in terms of the amount of time that they have available to spend, they're very dependent on what the executive presents to them, executives can quite successfully keep control of boards, I think, and board members, only spend whatever it is 30 days a year on the business of their company. So, again, I don't think we should be too ambitious for what we think they're going to do. I think the other issue as well is that on the whole, boards don't terribly like being in a state of perpetual conflict, either. And so, the number of times in which a board is prepared to go toe to toe with the executive is kind of limited, as well. So, there are sort of inevitably flawed human institutions, but they are having you’re on the hole, good intent, even if the execution isn't always perfect.


Benjamin [00:16:52]: Yes, I'm reflecting what you say, people, I speak to who aren't involved in the investment world are surprised how little investors speak to boards. So, that has its pros and cons. But it relates to your first point that they speak to management a lot because management is running companies. But there is a kind of aphorism that we sometimes adhere to or think about is that sometimes CEOs choose boards, and sometimes boards choose CEOs. So, we know there is a kind of board you capture by management teams if you want to call it that because they are meant to be supportive. But to what extent you've had constructive challenges on that.


Tom Gosling [00:17:33]: I think also Ben, that, that there are also, certain CEOs who were the board's kind of in all of them, and I can think of cases where they've been CEOs of large companies, who sort of looked around the board table, you can tell they're thinking, you've never had a job as big as my job. And so, what do you think you're doing, telling me what to do? And sometimes you can see that the execs are somewhat in all of the CEO, and say that the whole question of board dynamics is a fascinating one. And I guess it is sort of human nature, in that boards tend to be kind of in one of two states, they're either hugely supportive of the CEO, or they're trying to get rid of them. And there aren't that many boards who can maintain a sort of perpetual state of constructive tension, because it's quite difficult and tiring and wearing to do that. So, you do seem to see this sort of flip-flopping that goes on a little bit, and then suddenly, the CEO is fired, and they move on to the next person that they think is a hero.


Benjamin [00:18:49]: Actually, that's a similar observation on when you have a more activist investor or an activist who's gone on the board, it tends not to last forever and ever, because it's very draining on both sides. And you kind of have to resolve one way, or the other on seeming who's right or not. So, maybe squaring back on that last thing, I'll point what we said about the responsibility of boards to close this off is, to what extent do you think companies should be dipping into some of the arguments on inequality or not, because this kind of ticks into pay ratios and fairness and all of these things, which is have underlying importance for stakeholders, whether that's employees or within that, but again, there's this seem to be a lot of emphasis pushing onto companies to deal with potential things of inequality.


Whereas I know there are some proponents within sort of the economic sphere, which say, well, the best way to do that on a systematic point is to enable proper transfers within the system, either via tax or benefits or however, the politics has decided to do that rather than to be enabled to do that within a company structure or outside of company sites, sportsmen or women how they should be paid. And I know you've done some work on pay ratios, kind of suggesting that it's too much of a blunt tool. So, I'd be interested in where you think, again, on the lines of responsibility for boards on this, and to what extent that should flow into pay ratio or fairness kind of thinking?


Tom Gosling [00:20:26]: Yes, this is interesting, isn't it? If you look at kind of root causes of inequality, then you'd have to say that corporations are kind of coming at it a little bit late in the day in the sense that a lot of it is built around early life, education, upbringing, health, housing, diet, parent, there's a whole bunch of stuff where corporations can't do a lot about it, frankly, and a lot of the issues that arise around inequality has to be the preserve of government action to kind of get anywhere with it. Having said that I do think that corporations can play their role and in perhaps, addressing, or at least, helping not to exacerbate some of the inequalities that society has thrown up. And I think that things like, a focus on, for example, social mobility, racial equality, gender equality, I think if corporations don't think about those issues at all, then all of the sorts of embedded mechanisms of advantage that Western society just get perpetuated through the way corporations work as well.


So, I think the work that we've seen, for example, on, trying to place less emphasis on prior grades in recruitment processes, and all of these kinds of things that are done, I think a useful way in which corporations can help address these issues. And to some degree, they have a self-interest in doing that, to the extent that it enables access to wider talent pools and avoids talent being overlooked. I think where we need to be a little bit careful is in expecting organizations to stray into areas that go way beyond their commercial self-interest, in less we're going to kind of have a democratic framework that pushes them to do that. So, let's say, for example, so I'm all in favor of the government doing work around having good labor laws. And worker protections. And I think that's the sort of thing, that's an essential role of the government. Now, let's move that into the corporate sphere. And we know that there's some evidence that companies that treat their workers will end up doing better financially.


But there's going to be a limit to that. So, then the question is, should companies treat their workers better if no law requires them to do it? And no kind of governance code requires them to do it? And it's not going to make them any better off? And again, I think we come back to this point about legitimacy, because if a company spends money doing that, and it doesn't make them any better off, it's their shareholders that have paid for it. And so, what's the legitimacy behind that decision? And I don't think we can just sort of entirely brush that under the carpet. And that's where I think there needs to be some discipline around this decision-making. And I quite like Alex Edmund's criteria on this around, if you're going to get into that sort of stuff, is it aligned with your purpose? So, is it part of the consistent story or telling the outside world about why you exist? Do you have a unique capability to do that, that another organization doesn't have? Are you going to make a massive impact on the people that you're doing it for? But I think that just sort of willy nilly, I don't think organizations are there to just willy nilly be nice to people, I suppose.


Benjamin [00:24:33]: Yes. And so, you end up where the Coinbase CEO recently said, saying, we're going to stay out of politics as a company, although very interestingly, actually has a lot of relationships and work with regulators, which would suggest that it is not but, when you're in a space, say as crypto exchange, you would expect that as a key stakeholder who is interested in that so it's kind of interesting that, that would deal with one's purpose if one wants to do that. That actually kind of brings us on to some of the government's things, I'm thinking audit reform, I'm also thinking TCFD, to some extent. So, on order reform, I guess proponents are suggesting we need separation of audit from large firms because there have been conflicts of interest and quality of audit has not been that high in certain areas, we've had fraud.


We've had issues with companies going bankrupt. On the other hand, you have people suggesting that separation is not going to necessarily improve audit quality when certain companies fail, it's healthy for them to fail because it's perhaps a failure of the business model and corporate culture, you might have problems of audit quality if they're not supported by enough pay. Bayes and FRC are currently consulting on this. Do you have any thoughts on any aspects of audit reform that you think is perhaps not as well understood as we should think about?


Tom Gosling [00:26:10]: Yes, so I've got a couple of observations on the base replacement. So, one of the things that I think is interesting is this whole area of audit policy and giving investors a vote on audit policy. And, again, I think that could be useful. I think if there's an area where there's a problematic company, and investors want to come together to try to bring about change that could provide a useful focus, so that, but again, I worry a little bit about kind of pushing too much of this responsibility on onto investors, as opposed to reminding everybody that it's the audit committees responsibility kind of really oversee this stuff.


So again, we could get the law of unintended consequences there and efforts to sort of drag investors into areas where maybe they're not the best equipped to do it. When it comes to the audit reforms themselves, it's very difficult to know what to do about this, because I'm not convinced that their proposals on audit separation are going to make a lot of difference. After all, my experience working in a big four firm was that, this pressure to compromise the audit to win fees elsewhere. I just never saw any evidence of that at all.


Benjamin [00:27:24]: Because generally, people are well, meaning.


Tom Gosling [00:27:26]: Yes, but also very concerned about reputation, and I had situations before it became prohibited under the rules, I did special projects on remuneration for audit clients. And I had CEOs complaining about my work to the chair of the firm, and I was always backed up and there was always this idea that actually, you have to be even more independent in your advice to an auditor, because our reputations on the line here, so I don't buy that premise that, that is what's at the root of the audit quality issue. Having said that, I think it's undeniable that there are more needs to be done, there have been too many cases, I think, where audits haven't quite worked out. And I think that there's something here where we gradually just sort of chipped away at the status of the audit, the purpose of the audit has become more technical. I sort of feel that the stature of the audit partners isn't quite what it was, in terms of the extent to which they had a seat at the boardroom table, rather than just sort of pitching up every once in a while, to an audit committee. Maybe we're not paying enough for the audit.


I don't know, but there is a sort of a cost-benefit trade-off. Because if we want every audit to be a real-time forensic audit, all of the forensic investigations of every company in the footsie, no way are going to cost us a lot of money. So, I suppose what I come back to on this is, you look back in time, and you say, with the benefit of hindsight, should regulators have let PW and Cooper's merge. That was probably the one that in an ideal world, you wouldn't have done that so that when Andersen failed, you'd still have five, not four. But I think also, there is something about the aggressiveness of the regulation. So, you don't want to create a fear culture. But I think when they're bad audit failures, fines and sanctions have to be enough to [inaudible 29:36] and you don't want to be going after small infringements. But when you've just had grotesque failures of oversight, you just think actually, you got to send a message that that's not acceptable. So, probably, if I was going to make any change, it wouldn't be a structural one to the market, it would just be to give the regulator a bigger stick in the first instance.


Benjamin [00:30:03]: Which I think the part of the reforms will do that. Thinking then about reporting burdens in general, everyone is seemingly going around the route of TCFDs, this is the Task Force on climate-related disclosures. Critics would say this is an added cost. And that critic would also argue that perhaps for a whole bunch of companies and even for the financial system itself in the short term, there is no acute risk from climate. Yes, there's a transition risk. Yes, there's a long-term, yes, there's a systemic problem. But this requires the burden of this scenario analysis, which you can poke holes from so an economist like John Cochrane would be arguing on that.


On the flip side, you've got another body of work, which suggests that transparency, particularly on material areas, are very useful for investors very useful for organizing operation in terms of where cash flows are going, and may even impact the cost of the capital cost of debt, or cost of equity. And to the extent that you have systemic issues, or in fact, maybe now central banking mandates have some climate within them, at least within the UK, then that would be a useful area. So, I'd be interested, do you have any views on I guess, overall reporting, but we can see this through the lens of the climate-related reporting that everyone has been asked to think about now.


Tom Gosling [00:31:33]: Yes, it's interesting, I think that on the whole, climate-related reporting is a good thing. And I suspect that we'll see it develop quite a lot further from TCFD as well. And the reason I think it's a good thing is that, well, number one, climate change is an important issue. But also, I think it's difficult for investors to do some of the analysis that's required to understand all of the impacts that climate change has on a company. And I think you were making this point in the seminar you gave just the other day. And so, I think requiring companies to make some of that analysis available to investors in a structured way, I think makes a lot of sense, for an issue that is going to be so important, not just for society, but for so many companies. Now, you could argue we're spreading the net a little bit wide, because there are some companies for whom this is neither a material issue nor do they have a material impact on the issue for society.


So, you could argue that maybe we could have picked sort of 400 companies or something, there are the ones that we want to do this, I guess you then get into the problem of what exactly how do you do that? And select those companies, but it might be interesting, I suppose, if there were any sort of sense of global regulation around this issue, as you have for financial firms, why shouldn't you have globally systemic climate firms in a way that you have globally systemic financial firms? And we know that, so for example, climate action 100 plus has sort of come up with that list. And actually, then you might impose a higher reporting standard around climate on those firms. And actually, that seems broadly a sensible thing to do. I'm just not quite sure in practice, how you align that with the current way that regulations are organized kind of globally? Quite hard to do well, that's an interesting idea.


But where I have some sympathy around with John Cochran's position. Is that climate is an important issue. And therefore, there's this temptation that we want everybody to do everything they can to address this issue of climate change. But then you need to look at it well, who are the people best equipped to do it? And do they have a democratic mandate to do it? And I think the big issue and difference between what's happening in the US and the UK, is it in the UK, the inclusion of climate change within the mandate for the financial regulators did follow do the democratic process because the Chancellor has the ability under our laws to just say whatever he wants them to have as their kind of key areas. But that at least is our democratic process. I think the suspicion in the US is that there's this sort of move to paint climate as being this sort of immediate kind of financial stability issue, which kind of probably isn't.


But it's being portrayed as that to kind of shoehorn it in under the Feds mandate because there's no chance in hell of them formally changing the Feds mandate through Congress. So, that then brings us back to this political kind of legitimacy point and it's kind of a tough one. But I do think that on the one hand, it's good for the kind of corporates and regulators to sort of lead the witness a little bit on climate change. But if you become too far detached from something that you think you could get support for politically, you potentially create a bigger problem down the line. And ultimately, our goal particularly given all of these sorts of tinkering changes around governance responsible business, the role of the Fed, aren't going to do any more than just sort of shift their trajectory of the curve. At some point, we've got to face up to the fact that if we're going to address climate change, we need political support for some pretty drastic action. And we can't keep kicking that can down the road.


Benjamin [00:35:47]: Yes, I think that's true. This is a theme actually on this chat, which has been very interesting about the democratic process, particularly in the US, particularly where you have got suspicions over whether certain things are being shoehorned or not. And I do think it's interesting how you think the regulator slide is being relatively slow to understand, for instance, global financial services and their lending book, and how that might play into climate. Something which actually, TCFD maybe slightly sparked as a sort of realization, but practitioners sort of knew always, but then also the balancing of the stakeholders being, too far away, as you say, if you're going to finance a new coal mining, in Wales, and you've been asked to do that, you're not going to necessarily have to take into account. Well, what's the wealthy community do or do not within that finance efficiently?


Tom Gosling [00:36:48]: I think that's an interesting one there, Ben, as you can see, this role of banks and financing, so there is various sort of pressure points around responsible investing, which is a very sort of trendy area at the moment, but on the whole, I think, sustainable equity investing, the evidence suggests that there's sort of slightly second-order impacts on some of this stuff, but that financing can be first order. And when you have a relatively small number of institutions at the heart of a vast proportion of global debt financing on pretty much anything of scale, that is a channel where you could make life difficult for dirty activities, people wanting to finance new coal projects are now significantly constrained in where they can go if they don't have direct government backing to do that.


Benjamin [00:37:41]: Yes. And for listeners, for instance, you could look at what's happened to HSBC, and a shareholder engagement there in terms of their lending, but financing for some of the debates around about that. So, a slight pivot to the personal but keeping with the climate theme is gone. We both went on a kind of climate net-zero Jurnee. ourselves, partly, I think, for my insights has given me a real insight into how difficult it will be, or is for companies with this government piece. And I didn't fly at all last year, actually, no, I did in the early part. But if I take the March to March, and I think I've got my carbon footprint, down to only around eight. Now, the average in the UK is about 12.


A global, I think is four or five, but I was kind of hoping that I could get it lower than eight. But actually, I'm probably not, I can maybe do one or two extra things on a delaying consumption basis stuff, I don't buy new clothes or new computers. But the embodied things about living in the UK and just using UK goods and services. Just existing here means kind of, unless you're living very frugally, you're pretty much at five or six, just living an ordinary life. So, I thought it was quite interesting. But maybe you want to tell us a little bit about your learnings from a net-zero journey personally, and how you found that, and then where you are maybe a couple of tips or whatever you'd like to observe on it.


Tom Gosling [00:39:17]: Yes, it's been a lot of fun. And I've learned a lot from it. And I've been on this journey for about two years now. And I do know there are pluses and minuses to say it's very educational going through the process of actually trying to figure out what your carbon footprint is and where it comes from. But surprisingly difficult to do. It takes a lot of work. But it does kind of come down to a few big-ticket items that to some degree can stop you sort of stressing about kind of really minor stuff that sort of mastered the second order. And you're right. Absolutely can number one for a rich Westerner is how much do you fly? In terms of the incremental difference, you can make it to your carbon footprint. That's like a massive one. The one that was a real eye-opener to me was diet.


Diet is often a quarter of our carbon footprint. And, if you're prepared to go vegetarian, you can take an axe to that in quite a material way. And one of the things if I look back on this year, no flying, that's a big tip for the carbon footprint, we've slightly relaxed on the vegetarianism. And that's partly been through having kind of kids at home the whole time, he wants his keen vegetarians, and how many meals you prepared to cook and all of this kind of stuff. But that's one that I want to sort of push on a little bit more. And the other one I've been grappling with, which comes back to your sort of government policy point is home energy. So, I've been trying to say we've got solar panels, we use a green energy provider, who I think has a credible case for saying that, if not zero-carbon, it's much lower carbon than normal electricity. So, I wanted to move to put an air source heat pump in as a supplement to the boiler, I haven't quite got the guts to get rid of the boiler altogether yet, but the idea would be heating is 80% of what you use hemorrhaging for. And I could do that all through the air source heat pump. But goodness me it's complicated to do...


Benjamin [00:41:37]: I think it's expensive like 10 to 20,000 pounga. So, if you are not [renovating] already.


Tom Gosling [00:41:42]: It's massively expensive. You did, there are some government grants. And if you believe that they will possess them, they reduce the costs. But they're also, practicalities about the space you need for the additional units that you've got to put in, you need quite a large sort of air conditioner unit, you can't put it within one meter of your neighbor, so that means that we can't put it down the side of the house, we'd have to put it at the back of the house. Finding suppliers who can just sort of look at all of this stuff in a timely fashion is very difficult at the moment. So, I've been struggling with this for about a year, I'm still hoping to get it done, this year is one of my sort of carbon reduction objectives for this year. But actually, you then look at it and I'm sort of doing it because I'm thinking, Well, I'm an early adopter, and I just kind of do it, for the sake of it. But the cost per ton of carbon that I'll reduce will be enormous from doing this. And this sort of takes us back to some of this earlier debate, which is individual actions, whether it's by companies or individuals just aren't going to solve this issue, we need to put in place the incentives that drive the economy, towards labeling.


Benjamin [00:42:59]: And if you look at heating, as an example, as a kind of tricky area, whether you're going to go heat exchange, potentially you go moonshots say hydrogen or something like that, you look at it, and you go, that's going to need government intervention, or policy only if you looking at all that housing stuff. And actually, some places like Australia might be able to do it with solar, you could see a pathway for it. Potentially, maybe with a nudge to market leader, but within the UK it seems to me that you're going to need that and you do get payback over a long period. But the upfront is so large, you can't expect the vast majority of people to be there.


But yes, and maybe for listeners, we can put some numbers on it if you think these numbers are about right. So, if the average is around 12 this is tons of carbon a year. I think going veggie saves you about one to two tons a year, that order of magnitude a flight is about a ton long so flight to sort of New York so you will come back can be about two tons. Depending on your car, a car change can be about a ton as well if you stop using your car and just go cycling that could be a ton two times but very impractical for most people. And then heating is again about a ton to two pounds depending on where that is, I think. But on the veggie thing I think if you just go meat-free one day, that's still about a quarter of a turn a quarter to half a ton.


Tom Gosling [00:44:34]: Well and also cutting out red meat if you stick to [vegatables], that's a massive one as well. The car one fascinated me, and I think we are going to go electric later this year, probably. My daughter's currently kind of learning in a manual car. So, we're just sort of waiting till she passes and then we might change it. But it is quite finely balanced, because not only is it sort of in the embedded carbon cost of the car that you have, but also, I did some an analysis based on kind of new car registrations, and so on, which seems to suggest to me that if you sell a car and buy a new one, only a quarter of that car that you sold gets written off. In effect, point seven, five of the cars are added to the stock of cars, and it gets driven about four or 5000 miles. So, there is something about how you're feeding the market for car usage if you're prepared to just crush your car. So, if you're prepared to no longer walk, I'm just going to crush it and put it in the ground, then maybe it's a stronger case for changing to it.


Benjamin [00:45:45]: Yes, it is finely balanced. So, [Cross-talking, Berners-Lee book] the books that we refer to, I think he calculates that most cars, you should run until the end of life before changing, but actually on heating. Again, there are so many ifs and buts for the average. But if you've got a normal of your normal standard gas boiler, because there's not so much embedded material you should buy an embodied in the car, there's quite a lot.


Tom Gosling [00:46:11]: But also, when you get rid of the gas boiler, you are effectively crushing it. You're not creating incremental boiler demand by doing that. But there is another thing that we always have to think about here as well, which is around market signaling as well because there is something about, governments tend to be quite cautious about regulation. And this is another area where I'm a fan of responsible businesses just pushing the envelope a little bit because there is this concept of shifting the Overton window, you know, I mean, so if lots of people experiment in this area, it creates a condition where it becomes easier to regulate. So, I don't think it's right, just to say, we're going to wait for regulation and not do anything.


Benjamin [00:46:52]: No, I think I completely agree. And that's why people like you and me who are in a position to move that I think that there is a little bit of we're interested in work. And I think that's one of the reasons why Gretta is so powerful because she's so obviously living what she's doing, whereas you have some celebrities who, I think it's kind of fine, but they will fly over to New York to do protests or whatever, and raise money. But Gretta would go that's too inconsistent, I would only ever get there...So, it just leaves an extra sort of level of like, you kind of feel like on the margin, the celebrity still doing what's convenient. Whereas, the powerful logic where Gretta is, is that there's no compromise because it doesn't seem consistent, which I think that authentic resonance goes down.


Tom Gosling [00:47:41]: So, Ben, here's something I'd love to get your view on. So, I think I've concluded, so I always used to offset my emissions. So, whatever it was, for the year, I'd offset them and allowing for sort of leakiness of offsets I used to offset four times my emissions, I think are now concluding that all of these offset programs and potentially so problematic and leaky, that I'd be better off spending the money just on direct efforts to reduce my footprint and signaling initiatives, even though in principle, they're much less efficient. But I don't know what your view is on offsetting. And I haven't yet made this decision, but it's something I'm grappling with at the moment about whether I'm just wasting money on offsets.


Benjamin [00:48:30]: So, I think if you're in a position and the best thing to do, would be essential, to plant your trees. So, rather than outsource to some of these third parties, or we're not too sure, you can actually either find a garden or a project or even a little bit of woodland in the UK, like sort of arrow and then actually simply plant some trees. And I think it's something like every 50 trees is about a ton. And okay, it's a lot more than a $40 cost of carbon and that, but it's in the order of maybe a couple of 1000. And then you can nurture them. Or you can find essentially direct giving projects, which aren't so much a first-order offset where they're trying to go okay, tree management, which we know is a difficult thing to sort of maybe audit, but it's something much more direct, like saying, giving education to girls in Africa or better cookware and pots or things like that.


Although it's slightly harder to calculate the first-order impact, although they do that, too. They can offset, you know where the trend that you're doing systemic good that way. I do think the first one where you actually and this you're saying, it's a direct project, and again, the signal is, it's a lot easier to do, at least it okay, so small scale a direct positive impact directly to an organization or community that you're involved in, particularly if you're only actually offsetting, 10 tons of carbon, you can find those projects locally and maybe come on to this, you with your applied math can very easily say, well, this order of magnitude is I've offset that with new.


Tom Gosling [00:50:24]: But the additionality, such a problem, though, isn't it Ben? Particularly now that everybody's within the Paris Climate Agreement. So, a lot of these projects just get absorbed in the government. [Inaudible 50:39] progress is finding something that's genuinely incremental, has become so hard.


Benjamin [00:50:43]: It is hard. And I think this is why I'm making further and further bets on essentially, innovation, or some sort of innovation, which hasn't been created yet or is in the process of going created. So, that's the kind of risk-adjusted impact because some of it isn't off now, but again, for where we are, where we can maybe make these assessments and judgments, I think people can make a much more local impact than you might think. The other one actually to look at potentially is elements around food waste. Because although there are elements where yes, it is kind of happening, it feels to be one area where we have easier wins, and again, because we're kind of still at the low-hanging fruit stage, you can accelerate quite a lot on that.


Tom Gosling [00:51:30]: [Cross-talking 51:31] on food waste.


Benjamin [00:51:33]: Yes. So, very big. It's very win-win it's up about somewhere, like 25% to a third, somewhere like the UK is wasted on the end table, and we have still had some in the supply chain area. So again, if you're looking for a sort of focused area, that's something I would think about. Great. So, I have plenty more questions so, I sort of see we're coming up to a little bit of time, so maybe another 5 10 minutes if that's cool with you. I thought maybe a short game of overrated underrated, you can pass or you can do a quick one. This is I guess, hat tip, Tyler Cowen, but there are a few others who do this. So, we'll do that and then talk about a couple of personal things as well and then end up things. So, just a few ones. So, overrated underrated. We'll do some tricky ones first, carbon tax.


Tom Gosling [00:52:33]: Underrated.


Benjamin [00:52:34]: Underrated. So, that's because if we need to do it, it's a thing to help price markets.


Tom Gosling [00:52:41]: I'd rather do cap and trade I suppose [Cross-talking 52:42] sort of technical discussion in my head there about whether to say underrated or overrated. I think cap and trade would be massively superior to a carbon tax if we could make it work.


Benjamin [00:52:54]: Yes, cap and trade. I guess the counter-argument I hear on that is to do with this political thing. We just don't seem to have the political will or mandate to push these things through because the ideas have been around for a long time. Okay. So, this is perhaps a little bit precise. Diversity targets are overrated or underrated, I guess we're talking at the corporate level.


Tom Gosling [00:53:21]: Overrated.


Benjamin [00:53:22]: Overrated. And this is because of, I guess, second-order or unintended effects on actual targets.


Tom Gosling [00:53:29]: So, it slightly depends on where the targets are set. And obviously, targets are important. But the reason I say overrated more than anything is that I think there's somehow this view that all we've got to do is force more numbers through of underrepresented populations, and the problem will solve itself and I think that hugely underestimates the scale of change that is required in our organizations to make greater diversity a success.


Benjamin [00:54:00]: Sure. Pay ratios, overrated or underrated?


Tom Gosling [00:54:05]: Overrate.


Benjamin [00:54:05]: Overrate. The easy one there.


Tom Gosling [00:54:07]: red herring.


Benjamin [00:54:08]: Yes. Milton Friedman.


Tom Gosling [00:54:15]: Underrated definitely. He's portrayed as this sort of bet noir of, you'd have thought that he was responsible for many of the world's ills and runaway climate change and deforestation and goodness knows what else and I think a lot of that's been very unfairly to put at his door.


Benjamin [00:54:37]: Overrated, underrated. The idea that incentives are everything.


Tom Gosling [00:54:41]: Overrated.


Benjamin [00:54:43]: Overrated. Because there's a lot of other things in the world.


Tom Gosling [00:54:46]: Yes, and it's interesting, and I said will Alex Edmans and Dirk Jenter. We're just doing this study of how CEO pay is set and works and it's quite interesting that everybody accepts its intrinsic motivation is the most important motivational factor for CEOs. And yet we constantly act as if CEOs are coin-operated. And if we want to change their behavior, then we need to bring different targets into their pay.


Benjamin [00:55:09]: Sure, yes, it's a component but it's not on our lender. Which is why I think it is very intriguing for this purpose. Why are CEOs trying to do what they do? Okay. So, a couple of other questions here. What do you think people misunderstand about happiness?


Tom Gosling [00:55:29]: I said, this is interesting. Say that we're there are systematic errors that we make about what we think is going to make us happy. So, we vastly overestimate the extent to which changes in our life circumstances will make us happy. So, getting a new job or even getting married actually, or avoiding illness. There are lots of things that we think are that must make us happy. But then you go to people who've had those things happen to them. And they're just as happy as people, you haven't even for quite extreme things like accidents, results in paraplegia, and so on. And so one is that the second is the extent to which sort of stuff is going to make us happy.


Benjamin [00:56:15]: Stuff over experiences.


Tom Gosling [00:56:16]: Yes, stuff over experiences. And so, we systematically misestimate what is going to make us happy. And there are these two sorts of errors that come to mind. One is the single focal ism. So, when we're thinking about something that we haven't got, whether that's something in our life or an object, we're only thinking about that. So, we vastly overestimate the extent to which is going to influence our happiness when we get it. Whereas once we get it, all the other crap in our lives is still there.


And all the other good things, actually, and this thing that we thought was so important sort of pails into the background. The other thing is that we psychologically adapt to whatever life throws at us. And that's one of the great strengths that we have as humans, we're incredibly adaptable. And that has great upsides because we're very resilient in the face of disaster. But the downside is, we also become inured to things that we think are going to make us happy. So, we tend to overestimate the extent to which things will make us happy and for how long. But we don't realize that we make these errors. So, we keep chasing the wrong stuff all the time.


Benjamin [00:56:24]: And so, I guess this is one of the lines of work that you're advising on in your kind of coaching and financial coaching, are there any other couple of areas that you kind of think you'd be good at advising people on to think about?


Tom Gosling [00:57:39]: So, I think the other one, and I guess it is linked, but in fact, it links a few things that we've had over the last few minutes. I think this concept of enough is really important and underestimated one. We're in a world we're sort of saying, I've got enough sort of feels like settling, and somewhat feels like we should be striving for more. But, just for your sort of mental well-being, but also looking at things like our impact on the planet, this concept of enough has to come into play. And my work is generally with successful professionals, and they often lose all touch with the idea of what it means to have enough and you just need to show them what the ordinary people live on. And most successful professionals are kind of in the position of, a teacher who is 40 has to work until 65 and has just won a million pounds in the lottery. That is sort of the position that most successful professionals are in. And yet they don't sort of act or feel that way. So, there's something for me about figuring out what enough is from a material perspective and a consumption perspective to focus on what matters in life.


Benjamin [00:59:02]: It's that ladder that we've all sort of stepped on particularly successful people, and they haven't kind of been able to calibrate a lot of our earlier talking about what makes us happy. What is the purpose, what is success? What is enough? That's fascinating. Great. So, maybe the final kind of two or three questions here is what we can learn from singing?


Tom Gosling [00:59:24]: Singing creates this sort of very unique sort of bypass of the rational brain deep into your emotion somehow. It's a truly spiritual experience singing and particularly singing with other people, which is a very sort of communal singing. And is it interestingly being something that sort of doesn't appear now in the everyday lives of a lot of people. And so, I think that three things you can learn about teamwork, you can learn about the beauty that you can create as an ensemble or that you can't create by yourself. I think you can learn about how the physical affects the mental. And there's just something about the appreciation of beauty that's in that.


Benjamin [01:00:26]: So, choirs are underrated?


Tom Gosling [01:00:29]: Underrated. And it's interesting, as you said, I was in a choir until just before lockdown. I want to find a choir that doesn't require quite as much work as a choir.


Benjamin [01:00:41]: Anyone listening. Well, there's a singer available, but not too much rehearsal.


Tom Gosling [01:00:47]: Yes, exactly. Another three complex pieces, right at the edge of my ability all these times.


Benjamin [01:00:52]: Exactly. And so maybe as a follow on from that, do you have any advice for I guess, young people today? Or people sort of anywhere within their careers? Or their life, what kind of pieces of thinking that you would give them? And maybe this is the sort of like, what would you be telling your 21-year-old self-type of thing? But yes, any thoughts about where we are now? And what should they think about in the future?


Tom Gosling [01:01:19]: So, I think there are two I'm going to kind of focus on and they're not particular about where we are right now. But I think they have universal applicability. So, one is around just doing your best to live life on your terms rather than according to other people's expectations. And there's a slightly sentimental book by Bronnie Ware on The Top Five Regrets of the Dying, who an Australian carer who went around looking for people who was terminally ill, and her number one regret that she had identified words, I'd dared to live life on my terms, rather than according to the expectations of other people. So, I think avoiding that regret is important. And I think the other thing is, as well, as you look at all of this sort of psychological research on the extent to which we're adaptable, on the whole, we should take more risk. Related to our careers in particular, and our life choices, because the reality is, it will never be as bad as you fear.


Benjamin [01:02:24]: Yes. And this is the kind of, you think about the risk of admission or the risks of commission, there is the risk of not doing things we should do more. Try more things now. Excellent. And then final question, then, in terms of what looks like, a productive day for Tom, would you have any kind of personal productivity tips? What do you think kind of works or works for you? Or could work generally, or what doesn't work? Like, if this happens is my day that we're going to be a day where I'm very productive. I wonder whether it should start with a little bit of a song. But there is some evidence that people do start with either a song or something Camino or physical activity is the other one, that there is something to that, but I guess that's a little bit esoteric for most people. Although I guess a lot of people sing in the shower. But anyway, productive day for Tom, what do you think it looks like?


Tom Gosling [01:03:18]: Yes, say. Well, I think you have mentioned one of them. So, if I've had a productive day, it's probably got three characteristics to it. So one is, I've started it well, and I'm trying to start every day now with a little bit of yoga and meditation. And I do find that when I do that, it makes a big difference to my focus for the rest of the day. So, I'm trying to create a habit out of that. I've got a target of doing it every day this month. And I'm on it so far so I need to stick to that. The other one is this whole thing around deep work. So, I'm a terrible butterfly.


And I sometimes find myself going around this cycle of, checking each email account, and then I check LinkedIn, and then I check Twitter, and then I go back to the first employee know it, you just go around in circles and say, so for me, productivity is also associated with just shutting these applications down. And focusing on some deep work for some time. And the other one that I've noticed since we've been in various stages of lockdown is fresh air. If I have a day when I've been stuck inside all day, my productivity goes through the floor.


Benjamin [01:04:37]: Great. Do you think combined also with a walk or is that simply just sitting in the garden?


Tom Gosling [01:04:43]: I think that just being outside in some sort of natural environment is a lot of it. But obviously, it walks better because that also gets you a little bit of, cardiovascular as well.


Benjamin [01:04:54]: Great. Well, I think we've had an excellent conversation and I just say, thank you very much. If you want to learn more about Tom and Tom's work, basically Google him Tom Gosling is his website and you can find him on LinkedIn, and Twitter as well. So, thank you very much, Tom.

Tom Gosling [01:05:13]: Thanks very much, Ben.

In ESG, Investing, Economics Tags Tom Gosling, Purpose, Investing, reporting, climate

How is the global energy transition going? Smil, JP Morgan

May 7, 2021 Ben Yeoh
Screenshot 2021-05-07 at 19.25.34.png

JP Morgan / Vaclav Smil on state of energy transition. A balanced view of the world on where we are on current energy transition.

How is the global energy transition going? Taken together, the aggregate impact of nuclear, hydroelectric and solar/wind generation reduced global reliance on fossil fuels from ~95% of primary energy in 1975 to ~85% in 2020. In other words, energy transitions take a long time and lots of money. The IEA expects fossil fuel reliance to decline at a more rapid pace now, fueled in part by “Big Oil” companies becoming “Big Energy” companiesand by a faster global EV transition.

In 2021 renewables are for the first time expected to garner more capital spending than upstream oil & gas. This process is influenced by diverging costs of capital: 3%-5% for solar and wind, 10%-15% for natural gas and up to 20% for oil projects.

However, the IEA still projects that 70%-75% of global primary energy consumption may be met via fossil fuels in the year 2040. Why don’t rapid wind and solar price declines translate into faster decarbonization? As we will discuss, renewable energy is still mostly used to generate electricity, and electricity as a share of final energy consumption on a global basis is still just 18%.

In other words, direct use of fossil fuels is still the primary mover in the modern world, as the demise of fossil fuels continues to be prematurely declared by energy futurists. As shown in the last three charts, wind/solar capacity is growing and gains in renewable electricity generation are impressive, but in primary energy terms they are much smaller…”

More in the report here.

In Carbon, Investing, Economics Tags carbon, energy

EU netzero, Adam Tooze take

April 9, 2021 Ben Yeoh
Source:Mckinsey via Adam Tooze

Source:Mckinsey via Adam Tooze

Historian and economist Adam Tooze looks at the feasibility of EU NetZero by 2050 drawing upon EU Commision work and a substantial Mckinsey paper on this. And the conclusion from this, is that it is feasible although ambitious. He also mentions the work of Vaclav Smil (who most energy thinkers draw work from) and debates with Helen Thompson.


It’s a long detailed piece ( 5 - 10 mins) which coupons hundreds of pages of analysis which itself draws upon a lot of other work. Good reading for climate thinkers.


“Decarbonisation by 2050 is ambitious but feasible. According to McKinsey, almost three-quarters of the emissions reductions we need to attain by 2030—73 per cent to be precise—can be achieved with technologies which are either mature or in the stage of early adoption, such as electric vehicles. Only 5 per cent of the cuts necessary rely on technologies still on the drawing board. Even if we look as far out as 2050, 87 per cent of the necessary reductions can be achieved with technologies which are already in use or have, at least, been demonstrated on a small scale. That leaves 14 per cent to be covered by blue-sky innovation. “

His blog here.


In Investing, ESG, Carbon Tags Carbon
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