UK government behavioural insights team secret report on NetZero

This fascinating "secret report"* from the UK government behavioural insights team on #NetZero "principles for successful behaviour change initiatives". "When we view ‘behaviour change’ narrowly as an exercise in asking citizens to make different choices, the scale of change required to reach Net Zero is daunting, and an enormous political challenge. Moreover, the evidence from past case studies and decades of behavioural science research shows that awareness-raising and calls to action will not get us there. Though everyone has a degree of agency in changing their behaviour, and well-crafted messages from government can certainly be influential, behaviour is simply too profoundly driven by factors in the environment rather than in hearts and minds. As it stands, low-carbon behaviours are often more costly, less convenient, less available, less enjoyable, and rarely the default choice.

But this is ultimately an opportunity, because the more politically feasible approach is also the far more effective approach – to move further upstream and change these contextual factors. By focusing less on individual behaviour, towards bold policy targeting choice environments, institutions, businesses, and markets, it becomes an exercise in ‘world building’ more than ‘behaviour change’ per se. ...

...There are various degrees to which public engagement will be necessary, from more passive to more active (acceptance of policy or infrastructural changes; willing adoption of new technologies; or direct individual action). Building a compelling and positive narrative, with clear asks, can help to do this effectively, despite communications on their own tending to have a very modest impact on behaviour change. ...

...we do not have all the answers and evidence on ‘what works’ is continuing to grow. It will be more critical than ever to maintain an agenda of evidence-generating policy, as well as evidence-based policy: testing as we go and trialling new approaches. Behavioural science is far from exhausted, with many original ideas waiting to explored. ...

If we can impart one lesson, the first law of behaviour change would be this: reduce the burden of action for the greatest number.

Report in pdf here.


*This is a public domain license, but note: ... A government spokesperson said: “This was an academic research paper, not government policy. We have no plans whatsoever to dictate consumer behaviour in this way. For that reason, our net zero strategy published yesterday contained no such plans.”

And therefore the report is no longer available on the government website making the report a sort of "secret". Story here:https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/20/meat-tax-and-frequent-flyer-levy-advice-dropped-from-uk-net-zero-strategy

Alex Edmans responds to Tariq Fancy ESG critique

There is now a substantive response to Tariq Fancy from Alex Edmans. Jon Hale of Morningstar had a small one, but Alex’s dives in depth and extends and expands upon Tariq’s own basketball analogy.

“...So there’s much to like about the basketball analogy. But it breaks down in two important ways. First, basketball is a zero-sum game. One team can’t win without the other team losing. But business isn’t zero-sum. Fancy argues the analogy of two basketball teams is two rival companies. Yet the concept of “coopetition” has existed for over a century, where industry competitors can not only compete with each other to grab a greater slice of the pie, but also cooperate to grow the pie, for example by improving industry standards and sharing best practice. And the relevant analogy isn’t to a company and its rivals, but to a company and its stakeholders. Unlike in basketball, where sportsmanship to your opponent can cost you points, “sportsmanship” to your stakeholders can grow the pie for the benefit of both. This isn’t just wishful thinking; it’s based on rigorous evidence. One of my studies showed that, over a 28-year period, companies that treat their employees well outperformed their peers in total shareholder returns by 2.3–3.8% per year — that’s 89–184% compounded….

...The second limitation of the analogy is that regulation is easy in basketball — referees can spot fouls, perhaps aided by video replays. In business, regulation can address measurable issues such as wages and carbon emissions….

More here in this blog essay from Alex.

Climate, political economy challenges

There were many superb questions called at the Sustainability UnConference. I will be detailing more later on the whole event. The circles I hosted were about the (un)success or not of social/political movements and what questions or change theories of the political economy were there.

 

My brief notes are: 

 

-XR is different to anti-slavery, LGBQT+, suffragettes, and minority/black rights because the “ask” is less clear (cf. Ban slavery, a clear ask]

-[Open] Does a protest movement need an ask?

-Policy(Overton) window (and influenced on corporates) may have moved, and that would be a success

-While energised some young, it has antagonised other population segments

-Degrowth not considered by majority of economists/policy makers as viable

-XR opens doors for change makers to influence corporates, policy

-cf. Outrage and Stonewall, (LGBTQ+)

-XR  negative - is ZR now chipping out change makers and entrenching incumbents.

 

(Novel) are “leaders” emergent properties of complex systems. (eg a Greta would have emerged somehow in any case)

 

Cf. CFCs/Ozone, Nuclear.

 

Note how green party in Germany is now mainstream

 

Four theories/frameworks to note:

-Overton Window

-Swing Voter

-Median Voter

-Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

 

And two challenging economic realities:

Economic growth will be needed to lift the poor (intra and inter-country) our of poverty

Decarbonisation across all areas of human life (Land/Food, Industry, Power, Building, Transport etc.) needed and low-carbon growth is not (yet) reality in most sectors.

 

Mainstream Economic Policy:

Carbon tax/price solves 80% of problem (eg Jasion Furman view)

(Vast) Innovation needed (subsidy helpful for early stage tech)

Standards can help raise the bar

 

Challenging political realities:

Poor/Middle class don’t want to pay (maybe no one wants to pay)

Poor countries don’t want to pay vs rich countries

[Open] Swing voter unlikely converting soon

[Open] Median voter moving slowly

 

[Open] Arrow suggests a plurality needs to be an answer.

 

Median voter might suggest that education, activism in converting population may work. May push both window and policy in more green directions.

 

Swing voter might suggest that this is not possible as swing voter not being converted on climate matters. Geography of the swing voter also important.

 

(It did not occur to me so clearly until this conversation that the tactics for converting “swing” voters are likely different to the “median” voter strategy)

 

Alternative strategy: ignore/bypass voters

Carbon pricing/tax not viable to majority of swing and current median voters. (This does not ignore voters but essential complies with both views here)

Utilise “Industrial Strategy” policy for the major sectors that can slip by voters 

eg raise standards, subsidise and go super large on innovation investment (but can govt do this? And what about health, education etc)

May be slow, but might be a political economy solution ?? (One that elites and technocrat always use and so at risk of backlash)

 

[Aside] Importance of weak social ties or social network [cf. VC cf. UK COVID vaccine strategy]

Does XR/activist movement have a policy strategy?

Can economists propose anything better than carbon price?

Must it be techno-optimism that saves us?

 

 

[Open] Limits to markets

[Open] Do we need strong political vision


Speed of technological progress in some areas

Top of mind recently is how fast some parts of technology are going. I think the general reader has glimpses of the splashy news items such as the Space trips by Bezos and Branson, but there are many technology problems which have made huge progress.

I am thinking biological protein folding and what looks like setting up to be another strong decade for biological knowledge. The breakthrough work of Deepmind here is going to herald a step change in how we think about making proteins.

I think developments from the world of blockchain will be surprising. I don’t view anything as standout yet, but maybe smart brains and a lot of money are working in these areas and we have glimpses of possibilities with NFTs and “smart contract” protocols. And the backlash against regulation (see below) is notable.

The vast computing power now available to us when applied to hard problems mixed with machine learning algorithms is going to unleash a whole new way of creating software and software-interactions. And, I think we are on the verge of where a smart mind with no coding knowledge will soon be able to partner with tools to create code and ideas which before only coders of several years experience could do. We have a glimpse of that with GPT-3, and we have an iteration of that with the Deep Mind models for protein folding (noted above) but this recent video from OpenAI about the possibilities of what coding AI can produce based on very simple inputs suggests to me the world is going to change again in the digital space very rapidly.

The interface with the physical world is still behind, although certain parts eg automation and robots are advancing.

I think the general population is also behind and so is the humanities thinking, the social contracts and constructs behind it. While we have eg AI ethics, the people involved with them are narrow, so I hope it does all work out.

Meanwhile, we have all sorts of catastrophes, at a glance:

-Haiti earthquakes
-Afghanistan fighting
-Ethiopian civil war, and likely atrocities
-Rohinyga refugees
-A crisis in South Sudan coming out of a civil war
-Torture and execution from the recent Bolivia government
-the list goes on...and of course, COVID...

A few links from above:
Sudan: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/09/world/africa/deadly-clashes-threaten-south-sudans-shaky-peace-deal.html
Bolivia:  https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-bolivia-454d1102672f6fbc1e47dab7eca66714
Deepmind: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02025-4
OpenAI Demo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGUCcjHTmGY&ab_channel=OpenAI
And challenge and details: https://openai.com/blog/openai-codex/