Ethical Progress, better today than before

Ethical Progress, better today than before

I’ve been thinking how much progress (or not), we as humans have and the challenges around “progress studies” (cf Tyler Cowen, Patrick Collison) and the idea that the rate of progress have slowed down recently (say in the last 10 to 20 years) vs. mid 20th century. These have mostly been in the items of human development that we can more easily measure (life expectancy, science innovations, crop yields, mobility and the like) but I wonder about our social progress via the lens of where people mostly put “common sense morality”. 

200 years ago, womens’ vote was not the norm and the sane with many notions of equality many societies have today. Further back, slavery was the norm and it isn’t today.


From a personal view, I think in particular the ethical progress we have made with autistic people and other differences in cognitive profile. There are still enormous challenges that I don’t want to be little (I was speaking to someone who noted that autistic children in Sierre Leone are considered under spells of witch craft today by many people). But it strikes me it’s better today than say the 1950s both for parents - where for instance the awful “refrigerator mother” theory was common thinking - and for children - while we still face enormous struggles.

If we can continue to make social progress this should hopefully continue to enrich humanity and it’s important we continue to make this progress even if it might not readily show up in GDP (although I actually suspect it might show up there too eg. in access to work).

Interview practice

Offer (Oct 2020): Oxbridge | University interview practice. If you are or know someone who will be interviewing at Oxbridge (or equivalent level interview), and particularly if their school does not offer mock interviews, or you might otherwise consider yourself at an opportunity disadvantage. I am open to a few slots to offer a mock interview.

(I have been to Cambridge and Harvard. I have a science-based degree, but also write plays. I know the UK system and to some extent the US, liberal arts system too).

I can NOT help if you are applying to Harvard this year (as I may interview for Harvard this cycle).

Typically, I will offer 10 mins, basics, 30-40 mins interview, 20-30 mins de-brief and I’ll need basic information sent in advance. My capacity given the interview schedule coming up is 5 or so, in the next 2- 4 weeks. I may not be able to take all enquiries if this proves popular.

Some leftfield life advice blog here.

ThenDoBetter Grant Winner: Mary Penn, Funding for Autism Conference and Awareness

I’ve awarded a grant to Mary for costs needed to go an Autism Conference.

Mary writes:

‘Then Do Better’ grant will ensure that I can attend the Pan-African Congress on Autism conference 2020, share experiences that will help break the ‘stigma’ barrier, make vital networks, and learn new approaches that will add value to the work of SLAS and to the global autism community.

The Sierra Leone Autistic Society (SLAS) is a Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO) in Sierra Leone (SL). It is currently the main organization (and one of only two organizations) providing support for people with autism in SL. In 2017, before the establishment of SLAS, there was nowhere a family impacted by autism could turn to for support. Upon relocation to SL I had no school for my daughter who has severe autism to attend and no services to meet her needs. Realizing that this was the plight of many families, I teamed up with a colleague and we started SLAS. Our aim was to provide access to health, education, psychological and social interventions and strategies for people with disabilities, with a specific focus on those with Autism.

To date, SLAS runs a school for children with autism and other neuro-developmental conditions, and we provide a variety of services: health, social and educational. SLAS provides carer support which ensures vital respite. The biggest barrier for people with autism in SL, like many other low-resourced countries is ‘stigma’. Many people still believe that autism is related to witchcraft, etc.  As such, sensitization is key and SLAS works in the communities to demystify these myths. There are many families needing our support, but SLAS currently operates in only two regions of the country, which means that there is still serious lack of support for families impacted by autism.  Whilst our capacity is growing we need support to expand our services.  www.sierraleoneautisticsociety.org - will be on twitter with @InclusiveFutur2


UK Government looking for weirdo with skills

Most of you in the UK will have this, but one of PM Boris Johnson’s most senior advisors, Dominic Cummings, has put a call out on his blog for “weirdos with skills”. It has caused more criticism than praise on twitter and the media from what I can tell. But, I suspect - like quiet Torys and quiet Trump voters - this will have gone down well with a lot of people; and if you are a weirdo with skills it’s likely you will have found ait nd maybe you are applying…  FWIW, I was contemplating prediction markets this very week and it’s one of Cummings’ focus.

I have no idea about this at the top of government. Some thoughtful people I know have been pretty critical (along the lines of this is not what a SPAD should be doing and this disruptor approach won’t work for the civil service). Other critiques include: Tony Yates here in New Statesman in a commentary/defence there’s Henry Oliver in his blog and on being a State Capacity Libertarian H/T Tyler Cowen.

Cummings blog is here. He writes:

“…Now there is a confluence of: a) Brexit requires many large changes in policy and in the structure of decision-making, b) some people in government are prepared to take risks to change things a lot, and c) a new government with a significant majority and little need to worry about short-term unpopularity while trying to make rapid progress with long-term problems.

There is a huge amount of low hanging fruit — trillion dollar bills lying on the street — in the intersection of:

  • the selection, education and training of people for high performance

  • the frontiers of the science of prediction

  • data science, AI and cognitive technologies (e.g Seeing Rooms, ‘authoring tools designed for arguing from evidence’, Tetlock/IARPA prediction tournaments that could easily be extended to consider ‘clusters’ of issues around themes like Brexit to improve policy and project management)

  • communication (e.g Cialdini)

  • decision-making institutions at the apex of government.

We want to hire an unusual set of people with different skills and backgrounds to work in Downing Street with the best officials, some as spads and perhaps some as officials. If you are already an official and you read this blog and think you fit one of these categories, get in touch.

The categories are roughly:

  • Data scientists and software developers

  • Economists

  • Policy experts

  • Project managers

  • Communication experts

  • Junior researchers one of whom will also be my personal assistant

  • Weirdos and misfits with odd skills

We want to improve performance and make me much less important — and within a year largely redundant. At the moment I have to make decisions well outside what Charlie Munger calls my ‘circle of competence’ and we do not have the sort of expertise supporting the PM and ministers that is needed. This must change fast so we can properly serve the public….”

Popular blogs on 2019

Popular Blogs of 2019. These were some of the most popular of last year.

A blog summarising Nassim Taleb on climate change. Taleb argues for the precautionary principle as we only have one planet. He also notes on a risk view outcome is “size of impact” vs probabilty, and as climate models are uncertain this increases the risk of a very bad outcome Blog (3 mins) Nassim Taleb. Climate Change Risk.

 

A semi-specialised look at the ESG rating agreement arguments. I argue they will likely never agree and that will be a good thing: Why ESG ratings will never agree and some of the problems of ratings

Although having argued that, I am working on standardisation projects.

 

Short blog on the writing tips that Zadie Smith gave out to the Guardian many moons ago: Zadie Smith. Writing Tips.

 

A blog on some generalisations between Gen Z and Millenials. Unsure exactly how much is really true but some food for thought on growing up as a digital native. Generation Z. A look at their different qualities versus Millennials

 

My mini-explanation on my understanding of a performance-lecture  which is mostly the tradition that I have placed Thinking Bigly in. What’s a performance lecture?

 

I had fun pulling out my old journal to note down the travels I had to the the very remote Wana tribe in Indonesia and it’s one of my favourite 2019 blogs.

Why is happiness like a stock price?

Why is happiness like a stock price?

Maybe, we are asking our questions about happiness wrongly. We don’t separate ideas of short term happiness (a good meal, a good sleep, a funny film) with long term happiness (eudaimonia, fulfilment of having children, higher purpose). We seem to think or be asked about happiness in a way that suggests happiness is finite. It seems we don’t want to maximise for “happiness” in any case (a reason why Danny Kahneman left the happiness field)

As I look to my last decade, I believe we should re-think happiness or life satisfaction more like a growing pie. It may have no end. It will have ups and downs, but it can and should continue to grow through life.

Strangely, the best businesses can also have stock prices which - in theory - don’t have a maximum value.

Happiness - particularly long-term eudaemonia happiness - is hard to tackle directly. You can’t say I am  going to be 23% more happy in a month. You have to work on the matters that give you long term happiness - relationships, meaningful work, creativity - and as a by product on working on these matters, happiness accumulates.

Typically, a CEO can’t say her share price will be 23% higher in a month, or a year, what she can do is work on the matters her business can create value in - her business purpose - her innovation, products, customer service, employees - and by improving the value in those direct matters, as a by product profit and share price will also improve. It’s not a fixed pie. You can’t access it directly. It’s oblique.

As I think back on my last decade, by this definition, I’ve grown my happiness and should expect to keep growing.

Let’s look across the major elements of this. You could think of them of the “capitals of happiness”  as a metaphors which is not the greatest turn of phrase, but I can’t currently think of better (cf my thoughts on Progress Capitals)

  • Financial/Work

  • Human/Social/Relationships

  • Skills/Intellectual

  • Health

  • Natural

  • Purpose



As I think of all these elements, I feel pretty happy that they have all progressed. Physical fitness remains my worse one, which I’m working on.

I’m not going to review all of them here. I have some jottings, but it’s going to take too long to turn them into blog form. Suffice to say working on relationships, family; purpose in work as well as writing plays and now my grants giving scheme are leading to a full and satisfying time. I hope the next decade goes well too despite its challenges.

www.thendobetter.com/grants